Roaring Ralph won three of his last six starts, including two runs back-to-back three and four starts ago, and was runner-up five back, but was unplaced last time. Quick to run again after just three days, and experienced over today's trip and going, a fair speed figure (68) keeps him among the chief dangers.
Form last 6121130
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
63SR—RPR76OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 63 suggests ability but - reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Abduction has been third in each of his last three starts, a clear improvement on the seventh, seventh and eighth before that. Back from three weeks off, experienced over today's trip and going, and running to the fastest speed figure in the field (77), he tops our figures marginally despite being without a win in six starts.
Form last 6877333
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
70SR—RPR74OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 70 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Native Honey won last time out and again four starts back, with two unplaced efforts sandwiched in between. Back from three weeks off, experienced over today's trip and going, and racing off a strong speed figure (74), he's a serious threat, with the below-par run five back his only blot.
Form last 6071001
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
76SR—RPR72OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 76 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Imperial Guard has won his last two starts, a marked turnaround on the fifth, eighth and eighth beforehand. Quick to run again inside a week and experienced over today's trip and going, a fair speed figure (71) is encouraging, but he's only fifth-rated of six in this field.
Form last 6-88511
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
52SR—RPR67OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 52 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at evn.
Forbidden Colours was well below her best last time (eighth), having finished fourth in two of her previous three starts, and remains winless in four runs. A 44-day absence is a query, but she's experienced over today's trip and going and sits a narrow second on our figures, just a pound off the head of these.
Form last 64-548
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
75SR—RPR71OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Carmel Valley was runner-up last time out but had been no better than sixth in the three starts before that, still without a win in five runs. Back from three weeks off and experienced over today's distance, though the lowest-rated runner here on a modest speed figure (60), she has plenty to find.
Form last 67-7672
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
60SR—RPR64OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 60 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Forbidden Colours owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (42) and market confidence (82). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
4/1Ed WalkerKieran Shoemark
73%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Abduction
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
7/1 · Jim Goldie✓ Value Signal
Roaring Ralph
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
- · Michael Dods◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Forbidden Colours (SR:75, 4/1) has steamed in 38% since opening — the most dramatic market move in this field by a considerable margin — and that level of late confidence from Ed Walker's yard (15% strike rate, 767 runners) demands respect. At 9-4 carrying the lightest weight in the race among the realistic contenders, the lbs edge over Native Honey (9-12) and Roaring Ralph (10-2) is significant. The DistFit:- is a flag worth noting, but a 3yo at this stage of the season can improve notably over slightly new trips, and the class is unchanged (ClassMv:=). The SR of 75 sits in range for this field, and no rival combines competitive SR, strong trainer profile AND this scale of market support simultaneously.
Each-way alternative: Native Honey.
Main danger: Native Honey — Native Honey (SR:76, 9/2) holds the highest SR in the field, carries Course:W3P3 at Ayr — the most compelling course record here — and has a DistFit:+ at this trip, making it the most likely alternative winner despite the 14% market drift which may simply reflect the class rise.
ShortlistForbidden Colours, Native Honey, Roaring Ralph