Class 3 15 May 2026

Last Friday Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Handicap

Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Handicap · 5f

1748-Hr decs

Every runner. Every signal. One decision.

Official Result

Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Handicap

Confirmed
  1. Winner Fortification (GB) Ben Robinson · Brian Ellison
    40/1
  2. 16/1
  3. 12/1
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13:22–17:25 · 8 races

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Settled
  • 17 declared
  • 0 picked
Updated 5 days, 22 hours ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Chairmanfourtimes
Age 3 · 9-11
3210-7
74
95
3
9-11
66/1 33/1 40/1
Last season's standout performance was a 12-1 Listed win at Ayr (5f) in September on his sole encounter with soft ground; however, that performance has been an outlier and he's on a tough mark judged on the rest of his form; gelded since latest start last month.

SR 74 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Believeinmenow
Age 3 · 9-10
94-422
84
77
3
9-10
SP FCST 25/1
0-8 but he's gone close on his last two starts, most recently a head second of 14 at Beverley (5f, good to soft); also effective on good ground; up in grade today but has each-way possibilities once more.

SR 84 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Nuevo Slovo
Age 3 · 9-10
6167-
68
90
3
9-10
40/1 40/1 33/1
Won at Ayr (5f, good) last April on second start before creditable sixth in the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot (5f, good to firm); just one run since, when mid-division in Listed race at Fairyhouse (6f, yielding) in September, and sold for 34,000gns since; may be best watched on stable debut.

SR 68 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

3
Sir Alfie
Age 3 · 9-6
100-89
68
90
3
9-6
80/1 FCST 66/1
Two wins last summer for Ger Lyons; however, he's been a long way below his best on his last four starts, the first two for Charles Byrnes and the latest two for this yard; transformation needed in first-time tongue-tie.

SR 68 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

5
Stargazed
Age 3 · 9-5
6415-
73
92
3
9-5
20/1 11/1 16/1
Close fourth at Beverley (5f, good to firm) last July on second start and comfortable win at Ripon (5f, good to soft) later that month; fifth in Group 3 at Longchamp (5f, very soft) in August and off since; her attractive pedigree provides optimism that she will have more to offer for her top yard.

SR 73 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

6
Kinnalargy
Age 3 · 9-4
91374-
77
94
3
9-4
9/1 13/2 9/1
Ran five times last year, winning a novice at Redcar (5f, good to firm) last June and showing good pace when fourth of 15 on nursery debut at Doncaster (6f, good) when last seen in September; gelded since; the drop back to 5f could be a positive on his reappearance and he's a possible player.

SR 77 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Eternal Solace
Age 3 · 9-4
25-326
72
92
3
9-4
14/1 FCST 12/1
Two wins last year from first three starts (including on turf); some good efforts over 6f on AW this spring and William Buick has been booked by her in-form trainer, but she's looking exposed; others preferred.

SR 72 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Desert Treasure
Age 3 · 9-2
11-
76
92
3
9-2
7/2 4/1 7/2
Promising win on debut at Yarmouth (5f, good) last July and followed up at 1-4 in Windsor novice (5f, good) ten days later; absent since and she could do with breaking better on this handicap debut but it remains to be seen where her limitations lie and she has potential off her opening mark.

SR 76 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Arduis Invicta
Age 3 · 9-2
366-06
71
94
3
9-2
9/1 11/1 17/2
It's possible 6f suits better but some of last autumn's good nursery/Listed form came at 5f and she was beaten only 2l from a wide draw when sixth of 12 at Chester (6f, good) last Wednesday; not ruled out each-way.

SR 71 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

10
Shes Got A Brother
Age 3 · 9-1
11
78
90
3
9-1
14/1 9/1 14/1
Comfortably won on debut at Southwell (5f, AW) last month and again made all in a novice there (5f) since; she's a likeable prospect and it will be no surprise if she proves to be on a good mark on handicap debut.

SR 78 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

11
Fortification
Age 3 · 8-13
21-324
81
94
3
8-13
40/1 33/1 28/1
Pretty consistent across her six starts for Archie Watson (including on turf), winning a 5f AW novice last November; however, improvement is needed on stable debut, having changed hands for 26,000gns last month.

SR 81 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

13
Entailed
Age 3 · 8-13
6346-3
76
93
3
8-13
17/2 9/1 8/1
Unplaced in both nurseries for Andrew Balding and sold for 27,000gns last October; however, she was an encouraging third of 14 at 50-1 on her stable and seasonal debut at Thirsk (5f, good) four weeks ago and could build on that run today; one of two fillies for the yard; interesting contender.

SR 76 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

14
Hanney Girl
Age 3 · 8-12
1256-7
75
94
3
8-12
25/1 40/1 22/1
Comfortably made all on nursery debut at Ripon (5f, good to firm) last August and second off this 9lb higher mark at Chester (5f, good to soft) next time; however, hasn't kicked on subsequently and needs something extra.

SR 75 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

15
Naana's Shadow
Age 3 · 8-10
221-61
88
96
3
8-10
14/1 16/1 14/1
5f AW novice winner for Alice Haynes last October; suffered interference on stable debut last month then comfortably made all in a handicap at Catterick (5f, good) subsequently; today's company is considerably hotter but she could still be well treated up 5lb; on the shortlist.

SR 88 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

16
Storm Esme
Age 3 · 8-10
101-7
86
96
3
8-10
40/1 22/1 33/1
Well-backed winner on debut at Newcastle (6f, AW) last September and bounced back from Listed defeat at Redcar to make all in Leicester novice (6f, good); soundly beaten on last month's seasonal and handicap debut at Ripon (6f, good to soft) but may have needed the run and is not written off.

SR 86 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

17
Call Margot
Age 3 · 8-9
57-521
82
75
3
8-9
14/1
She's improved with each of her three runs for this yard and did well to defy a tricky passage to win at Southwell (5f, AW) last month; based on that evidence a 6lb rise may well not stop her this afternoon, and the expected strong gallop will be a positive for this headstrong filly.

SR 82 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

18
Von Trotter
Age 3 · 8-7
22-2
84
97
3
8-7
12/1 22/1 12/1
Runner-up late last year on first two starts (6f/5f, AW) and filled the same position in a maiden at Southwell (5f, AW) two months ago; has improved with each run and further progress is possible but necessary in a warm contest on his handicap debut.

SR 84 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Chairmanfourtimes 66/1 open 41.00 40/1 40/1 66/1 open 41.00 40/1 open 34.00 66/1 Bet365
2 Believeinmenow 25/1 25/1 25/1 25/1 25/1 25/1 Bet365
2 Nuevo Slovo 40/1 40/1 40/1 40/1 33/1 open 41.00 40/1 Bet365
3 Sir Alfie 80/1 open 101.00 66/1 open 81.00 66/1 open 81.00 66/1 open 81.00 66/1 80/1 Bet365
5 Stargazed 20/1 open 13.00 16/1 open 12.00 16/1 open 12.00 18/1 open 13.00 20/1 open 13.00 20/1 Bet365
6 Kinnalargy 9/1 open 8.50 10/1 open 7.50 10/1 open 7.50 9/1 open 9.50 9/1 open 8.00 10/1 Coral
7 Eternal Solace 14/1 open 13.00 14/1 14/1 12/1 open 15.00 12/1 open 15.00 14/1 Bet365
8 Desert Treasure 7/2 open 5.00 4/1 4/1 7/2 open 5.50 7/2 open 5.00 4/1 Coral
9 Arduis Invicta 9/1 open 12.00 10/1 open 12.00 10/1 open 12.00 17/2 open 12.00 9/1 open 12.00 10/1 Coral
10 Shes Got A Brother 14/1 open 11.00 14/1 open 10.00 14/1 open 10.00 14/1 open 11.00 14/1 open 10.00 14/1 Bet365
11 Fortification 40/1 40/1 open 34.00 40/1 open 34.00 28/1 open 34.00 33/1 40/1 Bet365
13 Entailed 17/2 open 11.00 9/1 open 11.00 9/1 open 11.00 8/1 open 11.00 17/2 open 10.00 9/1 Coral
14 Hanney Girl 25/1 open 51.00 25/1 open 51.00 25/1 open 51.00 25/1 open 51.00 22/1 open 41.00 25/1 Bet365
15 Naana's Shadow 14/1 open 19.00 14/1 open 17.00 14/1 open 17.00 14/1 open 17.00 14/1 open 17.00 14/1 Bet365
16 Storm Esme 40/1 open 23.00 40/1 open 23.00 40/1 open 23.00 40/1 open 23.00 33/1 open 23.00 40/1 Bet365
17 Call Margot 14/1 open 17.00 14/1 14/1 14/1 open 17.00 14/1 14/1 Bet365
18 Von Trotter 12/1 open 23.00 12/1 open 23.00 12/1 open 23.00 12/1 open 23.00 12/1 open 23.00 12/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Entailed

Speculative

Entailed owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (42) and market confidence (61). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

17/2 Gemma Tutty Rossa Ryan
64% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Desert Treasure

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

7/2 · William Haggas
✓ Value Signal

Storm Esme

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

40/1 · Tim Easterby
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
42 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +16.0 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Live signal
61 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +13.4 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
35 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.5 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Speculative
57 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.8 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor High conviction
66 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +6.6 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
45 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +3.6 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 13. Entailed
50.6 17/2
2 8. Desert Treasure
49.9 7/2
3 18. Von Trotter
48.7 12/1
4 17. Call Margot
48.7 14/1
5 10. Shes Got A Brother
47.3 14/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Naana's Shadow
Medium

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

8
Age 3 · 9-2
7/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 76 🐾

SR 76 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

13
Age 3 · 8-13
17/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 76 🐾

SR 76 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Age 3 · 9-4
9/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 77 🐾

SR 77 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Age 3 · 9-2
9/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 71 🐾

SR 71 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

18
Age 3 · 8-7
12/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 84 🐾

SR 84 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 3 · 9-4
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 72 🐾

SR 72 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Age 3 · 9-1
14/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 78 🐾

SR 78 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

15
Age 3 · 8-10
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 88 🐾

SR 88 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

17
Age 3 · 8-9
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 82 🐾

SR 82 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Age 3 · 9-5
20/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 73 🐾

SR 73 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Naana's Shadow
Confidence: Medium

Naana's Shadow leads the field with SR 88 and is trading at 18/1. The Saturday Rating places it clear of the field on ability. Weight of 8-10 is manageable for a horse of this class.

Shortlist Naana's Shadow, Storm Esme, Believeinmenow, Von Trotter, Call Margot
Each-way: Storm Esme Danger: Believeinmenow

🗺 The Course Class 3

5f Distance to cover
Good Expected going
17 Confirmed runners
York Track and setting
Class 3 Race grade