Havanagreattime rates as the pick of these on our figures and has run over today's trip and going, giving him a solid foundation here; the concern is that he has been winless in his last five starts, with a string of unplaced efforts making the turnaround hard to take on trust.
Form last 6709-09
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
50SR84RPR75OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 50 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.
Havana Prince has run over today's trip and going before, but his recent form is a concern — unplaced in two of his last four starts and eighth latest, with only a win four starts back and a third five starts back to offer encouragement; the 139 lb burden won't help either.
Form last 6-31008
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
74SR74RPR74OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 74 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Bloodsweatandtyres showed he can win in recent starts, but three unplaced efforts since that success are a concern, and a trainer firing at just five per cent dampens confidence; he has run over today's trip and going, though 136 lb is a stiff ask from stall seven.
Form last 61-0050
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
65SR73RPR71OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 65 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Orne shaped with promise when third three starts back and arrives here fit enough after 40 days off, with experience of today's distance and going in his favour; winless in recent starts, but drawing stall one and carrying 136 lb, our figures suggest he merits respect.
Form last 6030376
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
74SR83RPR71OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 74 suggests ability but 4/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Up The Agenda has finished fourth, sixth, eighth and seventh in his last four starts, making him hard to fancy, though a win five starts back shows he can find the winner's enclosure and he has experience of today's trip and going.
Form last 6-17864
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
65SR71RPR73OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 65 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Beattie Is Back shaped with promise when third last time out, and has run over today's distance and going, giving connections solid grounds for optimism; the main concern is that he remains winless in his last six starts.
Form last 6206503
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
73SR76RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 73 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last five starts and returning from a 460-day absence, Honved faces a stiff task, though he has run over today's distance and going before and a second five starts back hints at some ability; the long layoff is the obvious concern.
Form last 625540-
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
42SR74RPR68OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 42 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 100/1.
Highland Shah shaped with plenty of promise when third last time out, and he won two starts back, giving him strong recent form credentials; drawn in stall 11 carrying 132 lb after a 55-day break is the key question mark.
Form last 643-413
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
80SR77RPR71OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Ranked tenth of twelve on our figures, Tasever has managed just one win in his last six starts, finishing unplaced last time out and failing to threaten on his two previous outings, though he does at least bring distance and going experience and returns from a 39-day break with stall three.
Form last 6163870
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
44SR71RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 44 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
Judicature has experience over today's trip and going, and his fourth last time out keeps him in contention, though he is winless in his last six starts and that run of sevenths and an eighth in between hints at inconsistency that may hold him to a midfield finish again.
Form last 6428774
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
58SR75RPR63OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 58 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked 11 of 12 on our figures, Lessay is hard to fancy despite winning last time out, as that sole success in his last six starts and a 66-day absence leave plenty to prove; he has run over today's trip and going before, which at least counts for something.
Form last 6507261
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
48SR65RPR61OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 48 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last five starts and ranked last on our figures, Douwantitrightnow heads into this off a 79-day absence having been unplaced most recently, though she has run over today's distance and going before and the 123 lb carry is straightforward enough.
Form last 654-470
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
40SR61RPR62OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 40 suggests ability but 80/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Highland Shah owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (44) and market confidence (84). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
7/2Julie CamachoRyan Sexton
65%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Beattie Is Back
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
11/4 · Richard & Peter Fahey✓ Value Signal
Havanagreattime
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
40/1 · Ruth Carr◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Beattie Is Back (SR:73, 11/4) combines the strongest multi-signal case in the field: DistFit:+ confirms proven ability at 7f, a MarkMv:-3 means connections have found a mark 3lb below the last win, and the market has nudged in 5% with no drift concern. The Fahey yard runs at a solid 10% strike rate over a large sample (496 runners), and at 9-8 this horse carries a meaningful weight concession to Highland Shah (9-6 but SR:80 and drifting 10%) and the joint-top-rated Havana Prince and Orne (both SR:74 on heavier weights). The recent 206503 form at Class 5 level shows consistent competitiveness with no implosions, and a lower mark than the last win is the textbook handicapper's edge.
Each-way alternative: Highland Shah.
Main danger: Highland Shah — Highland Shah leads the field on SR (80), has a confirmed GoingFit:+ on this AW good surface, and drops a class — the 10% market drift is the only concern, but at 7/2 the ability edge is real enough to beat the selection if the drift is noise rather than signal.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Form reads 206503 — the horse has not won in its last 6 runs, with the most recent three runs showing a decline to 5th and 3rd-last finishes, raising doubts about current peak fitness.
At age 7, a 27-day absence is notable; Warren Fentiman (3lb claim, 9% strike rate on 558 rides) is not an inspiring booking for a 11/4 shot in a competitive AW handicap.
Highland Shah (SR:80, 7/2) is the highest-rated horse in the field and, despite drifting 10%, still holds a 7-point rating superiority over Beattie Is Back — that gulf is substantial at this level.
The market move in of only 5% is modest for a horse being promoted as the standout multi-signal case; Havana Prince came in 23% and Bloodsweatandtyres 37%, suggesting sharper money has gone elsewhere.
ShortlistBeattie Is Back, Highland Shah, Havana Prince, Bloodsweatandtyres