Winless in his last six starts yet Mr Mistoffelees brings solid placed form to the table, with seconds two and three starts back to his name; he has run over today's trip and going before, and his rating of 81 marks him as the one to beat off 140 lb from stall 6.
Form last 6875220
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
75SR81RPR75OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 75 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Harry The Rogue has run over today's trip and going before and, rated 78 by us against an official mark of 73, represents a clear each-way player; the risk is that he has been winless in his last six starts, with three unplaced efforts on the bounce a concern.
Form last 6249000
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
70SR78RPR73OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 70 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Rising Force has managed just one win in his last six starts, with a sixth last time out doing little to inspire confidence, and he ranks tenth of eleven on our figures; the second two starts back at least suggests he can hit the frame on his day, and he has experience over today's trip and going.
Form last 6184526
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
60SR71RPR73OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 60 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last six starts, Bowood does bring distance and going experience to the table and showed a hint of ability when third two starts back, but a subsequent unplaced effort last time out and a draw at stall four offer no obvious spur heading into this.
Form last 6565730
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
58SR74RPR72OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 58 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.
Winless in his last five starts, with a fifth last time out and a second four starts back representing the best of his recent efforts, Bee Farmer has distance experience to call on and a break of 34 days could help, though his rating of 75 leaves him with plenty to find against stronger rivals.
Form last 662745
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
64SR75RPR75OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 64 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last six starts, Sunriseontheboyne at least has experience of today's trip and conditions in his favour, and 32 days between runs suggests he arrives fresh; however, his finishing positions have been consistently modest and a turnaround is needed.
Form last 6806078
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
66SR74RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 66 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Criminal Shore's win five starts back gives him a winning profile in recent starts, and he arrives fit on 18 days' rest with experience of today's distance and going; the risk is that his last four runs have yielded two sixths and two unplaced efforts, so he must rediscover that form.
Form last 6410606
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
67SR76RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 67 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last six starts, Flying Fletcher does at least bring experience of today's trip and conditions, and a speed rating of 78 suggests more ability than his official mark of 68 implies — the risk is that his recent finishes have been largely disappointing, and he must find considerably better form.
Form last 6743769
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
72SR76RPR68OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 72 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last five starts, with a pair of seconds the only bright spots amid three poor finishes, Dragonflame returns after 103 days off and ranks ninth of eleven on our figures, making him difficult to fancy despite having run over today's trip before.
Form last 62290-9
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
44SR72RPR67OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 44 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Starliner has placed twice in his last three starts, including a runner-up finish last time out and another second three starts back, yet a sixth two starts back and deeper struggles in his record leave him winless in recent starts; he has distance and going experience to call on, and our rating of 72 gives him an edge over his official mark.
Form last 6882262
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
72SR72RPR62OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 72 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last five starts and ranked last on our figures, Natzor is a tough sell, though he has run over today's trip and going before and returns on a reasonable 25-day break carrying 122 lb from stall 10.
Form last 6-49080
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
40SR69RPR57OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 40 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 80/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Mr Mistoffelees owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (42) and market confidence (75). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
11/2Sam EnglandTom Eaves
67%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Criminal Shore
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
5/1 · David O'Meara✓ Value Signal
Dragonflame
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
50/1 · Rebecca Menzies◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Harry The Rogue (SR:70, 6/1, Wgt:9-12) is the standout selection on the back of a remarkable 63% market move in — the strongest steaming signal in the field by a wide margin, suggesting informed money is firmly behind this runner. Despite a MarkMv:+19 concern (running off a mark 19lb higher than last win), the DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ combination is the only confirmed distance-and-going fit in the entire field, a crucial edge in a race where almost every rival has DistFit:- on today's 1m5y trip. The drop in class (↓1) further aids connections' confidence. Trainer Stephen Hanlon has a modest 7% strike rate but the market move dwarfs any yard concern and jockey Whiteley's 18% at 140 rides is solid for the level.
Each-way alternative: Flying Fletcher.
Main danger: Flying Fletcher — Flying Fletcher (SR:72, 4/1, Mkt:in23%) carries the joint-highest SR in the field alongside Starliner, has a 23% market move in its favour, drops in class (↓1), and at 9-7 carries 5lb less than Harry The Rogue — a meaningful weight advantage if the distance fitness gap closes on AW good ground.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
MarkMv:+19 is a severe class/mark concern — Harry The Rogue's last win came off a mark 19lb lower, and recent form figures of 249000 show no sign of recapturing that level.
Trainer Stephen Hanlon's 7% strike rate from only 43 runs is a small, weak yard — limited evidence of placing horses to win off big handicap marks at this level.
Jockey Conor Whiteley's 5% strike rate at this track/level undermines the market confidence narrative; the 18% figure may flatter across all venues and conditions.
Flying Fletcher (SR:72, 4/1, in23%) is shorter in the market, has a higher speed rating, course form (W0P3), and fresher connections — the market may actually favour a rival over Harry The Rogue.
ShortlistHarry The Rogue, Flying Fletcher, Mr Mistoffelees, Sunriseontheboyne