Newcastle (AW) 16:15 RESULTED
Class 5 2 Sep 2026

Wednesday 2 September Follow @attheraces On X Handicap Stakes

Follow @attheraces On X Handicap Stakes · 1m5y

Official Result

Follow @attheraces On X Handicap Stakes

Confirmed
  1. Winner Sunriseontheboyne (IRE) Andrew Mullen · Ben Haslam
    9/2
  2. 10/1
  3. 4/1F
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13:45–17:45 · 9 races

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Settled
  • 11 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 2 weeks, 5 days ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Mr Mistoffelees silks
Mr Mistoffelees
Age 6 · 10-0
875220
75
75
81
6
10-0
11/2 9/2 11/2
Winless in his last six starts yet Mr Mistoffelees brings solid placed form to the table, with seconds two and three starts back to his name; he has run over today's trip and going before, and his rating of 81 marks him as the one to beat off 140 lb from stall 6.
AI verdict

SR 75 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Harry The Rogue silks
Harry The Rogue
Age 5 · 9-12
249000
73
70
78
5
9-12
7/1 10/1 13/2
Harry The Rogue has run over today's trip and going before and, rated 78 by us against an official mark of 73, represents a clear each-way player; the risk is that he has been winless in his last six starts, with three unplaced efforts on the bounce a concern.
AI verdict

SR 70 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Rising Force silks
Rising Force
Age 5 · 9-12
184526
73
60
71
5
9-12
14/1 10/3 14/1
Rising Force has managed just one win in his last six starts, with a sixth last time out doing little to inspire confidence, and he ranks tenth of eleven on our figures; the second two starts back at least suggests he can hit the frame on his day, and he has experience over today's trip and going.
AI verdict

SR 60 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Bowood silks
Bowood
Age 6 · 9-11
565730
72
58
74
6
9-11
11/1 10/1 11/1
Winless in his last six starts, Bowood does bring distance and going experience to the table and showed a hint of ability when third two starts back, but a subsequent unplaced effort last time out and a draw at stall four offer no obvious spur heading into this.
AI verdict

SR 58 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.

5
Bee Farmer silks
Bee Farmer
Age 3 · 9-9
62745
75
64
75
3
9-9
20/1 9/2 18/1
Winless in his last five starts, with a fifth last time out and a second four starts back representing the best of his recent efforts, Bee Farmer has distance experience to call on and a break of 34 days could help, though his rating of 75 leaves him with plenty to find against stronger rivals.
AI verdict

SR 64 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Sunriseontheboyne silks
Sunriseontheboyne
Age 4 · 9-9
806078
70
66
74
4
9-9
10/3 4/1 3/1
Winless in his last six starts, Sunriseontheboyne at least has experience of today's trip and conditions in his favour, and 32 days between runs suggests he arrives fresh; however, his finishing positions have been consistently modest and a turnaround is needed.
AI verdict

SR 66 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Criminal Shore silks
Criminal Shore
Age 4 · 9-9
410606
70
67
76
4
9-9
5/1 4/1 5/1
Criminal Shore's win five starts back gives him a winning profile in recent starts, and he arrives fit on 18 days' rest with experience of today's distance and going; the risk is that his last four runs have yielded two sixths and two unplaced efforts, so he must rediscover that form.
AI verdict

SR 67 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Flying Fletcher silks
Flying Fletcher
Age 5 · 9-7
743769
68
72
76
5
9-7
3/1 4/1 3/1
Winless in his last six starts, Flying Fletcher does at least bring experience of today's trip and conditions, and a speed rating of 78 suggests more ability than his official mark of 68 implies — the risk is that his recent finishes have been largely disappointing, and he must find considerably better form.
AI verdict

SR 72 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

9
Dragonflame silks
Dragonflame
Age 4 · 9-6
2290-9
67
44
72
4
9-6
50/1 16/1 40/1
Winless in his last five starts, with a pair of seconds the only bright spots amid three poor finishes, Dragonflame returns after 103 days off and ranks ninth of eleven on our figures, making him difficult to fancy despite having run over today's trip before.
AI verdict

SR 44 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Starliner silks
Starliner
Age 5 · 9-1
882262
62
72
72
5
9-1
11/1 3/1 11/1
Starliner has placed twice in his last three starts, including a runner-up finish last time out and another second three starts back, yet a sixth two starts back and deeper struggles in his record leave him winless in recent starts; he has distance and going experience to call on, and our rating of 72 gives him an edge over his official mark.
AI verdict

SR 72 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

11
Natzor silks
Natzor
Age 6 · 8-10
-49080
57
40
69
6
8-10
100/1 50/1 80/1
Winless in his last five starts and ranked last on our figures, Natzor is a tough sell, though he has run over today's trip and going before and returns on a reasonable 25-day break carrying 122 lb from stall 10.
AI verdict

SR 40 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 80/1.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Mr Mistoffelees 11/2 11/2 open 5.50 11/2 11/2 11/2 11/2 11/2 Bet365
2 Harry The Rogue 7/1 open 29.00 7/1 open 41.00 7/1 open 11.00 7/1 open 11.00 7/1 open 11.00 13/2 open 11.00 7/1 Bet365
3 Rising Force 14/1 open 4.33 14/1 open 5.00 14/1 open 5.00 14/1 open 5.00 14/1 open 5.00 14/1 open 5.00 14/1 Bet365
4 Bowood 11/1 open 15.00 11/1 open 11.00 11/1 open 19.00 11/1 open 19.00 11/1 open 19.00 11/1 open 19.00 11/1 Bet365
5 Bee Farmer 20/1 open 10.00 20/1 open 5.50 20/1 open 10.00 20/1 open 10.00 20/1 open 10.00 18/1 open 10.00 20/1 Bet365
6 Sunriseontheboyne 10/3 open 13.00 7/2 open 13.00 7/2 open 6.00 7/2 open 6.00 3/1 open 6.00 3/1 open 5.00 7/2 Paddy Power
7 Criminal Shore 5/1 open 5.00 5/1 5/1 open 5.50 5/1 open 5.50 5/1 open 5.50 5/1 open 5.50 5/1 Bet365
8 Flying Fletcher 3/1 open 8.00 7/2 open 8.00 7/2 open 6.00 7/2 open 6.00 10/3 open 5.00 7/2 open 6.00 7/2 Paddy Power
9 Dragonflame 50/1 open 29.00 50/1 open 17.00 50/1 open 34.00 50/1 open 34.00 50/1 open 34.00 40/1 open 34.00 50/1 Bet365
10 Starliner 11/1 open 4.00 11/1 open 7.00 11/1 open 6.00 11/1 open 6.00 11/1 open 6.00 12/1 open 6.00 12/1 Betfred
11 Natzor 100/1 open 51.00 110/1 open 67.00 100/1 open 67.00 100/1 open 67.00 100/1 open 67.00 80/1 open 67.00 110/1 Paddy Power

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Mr Mistoffelees

Speculative

Mr Mistoffelees owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (42) and market confidence (75). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

11/2 Sam England Tom Eaves
67% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Criminal Shore

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

5/1 · David O'Meara
✓ Value Signal

Dragonflame

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

50/1 · Rebecca Menzies
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

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Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
42 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +15.8 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence High conviction
75 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +16.4 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
36 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.8 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Speculative
48 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.8 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor High conviction
59 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.9 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
51 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.1 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 1. Mr Mistoffelees
50.8 11/2
2 7. Criminal Shore
49.4 5/1
3 8. Flying Fletcher
48.9 3/1
4 10. Starliner
48.4 11/1
5 6. Sunriseontheboyne
47.7 10/3
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Harry The Rogue
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

8
Age 5 · 9-7
3/1
★★★☆☆ SR 72 🐾

SR 72 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Age 4 · 9-9
10/3
★★☆☆☆ SR 66 🐾

SR 66 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 4 · 9-9
5/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 67 🐾

SR 67 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

1
Age 6 · 10-0
11/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 75 🐾

SR 75 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Age 5 · 9-12
7/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 70 🐾

SR 70 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Age 6 · 9-11
11/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 58 🐾

SR 58 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.

10
Age 5 · 9-1
11/1
★★★☆☆ SR 72 🐾

SR 72 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Age 5 · 9-12
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 60 🐾

SR 60 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Age 3 · 9-9
20/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 64 🐾

SR 64 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Harry The Rogue
Confidence: Speculative

Harry The Rogue (SR:70, 6/1, Wgt:9-12) is the standout selection on the back of a remarkable 63% market move in — the strongest steaming signal in the field by a wide margin, suggesting informed money is firmly behind this runner. Despite a MarkMv:+19 concern (running off a mark 19lb higher than last win), the DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ combination is the only confirmed distance-and-going fit in the entire field, a crucial edge in a race where almost every rival has DistFit:- on today's 1m5y trip. The drop in class (↓1) further aids connections' confidence. Trainer Stephen Hanlon has a modest 7% strike rate but the market move dwarfs any yard concern and jockey Whiteley's 18% at 140 rides is solid for the level. Each-way alternative: Flying Fletcher. Main danger: Flying Fletcher — Flying Fletcher (SR:72, 4/1, Mkt:in23%) carries the joint-highest SR in the field alongside Starliner, has a 23% market move in its favour, drops in class (↓1), and at 9-7 carries 5lb less than Harry The Rogue — a meaningful weight advantage if the distance fitness gap closes on AW good ground.

Case against 4 clamped
  • MarkMv:+19 is a severe class/mark concern — Harry The Rogue's last win came off a mark 19lb lower, and recent form figures of 249000 show no sign of recapturing that level.
  • Trainer Stephen Hanlon's 7% strike rate from only 43 runs is a small, weak yard — limited evidence of placing horses to win off big handicap marks at this level.
  • Jockey Conor Whiteley's 5% strike rate at this track/level undermines the market confidence narrative; the 18% figure may flatter across all venues and conditions.
  • Flying Fletcher (SR:72, 4/1, in23%) is shorter in the market, has a higher speed rating, course form (W0P3), and fresher connections — the market may actually favour a rival over Harry The Rogue.
Shortlist Harry The Rogue, Flying Fletcher, Mr Mistoffelees, Sunriseontheboyne
Each-way: Flying Fletcher Danger: Flying Fletcher

🗺 The Course Class 5

1m5y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
11 Confirmed runners
Newcastle (AW) Track and setting
Class 5 Race grade