Le Nez Creux shaped well two starts back when second, and her win four starts back underlines the class that earns her top rating here; the trainer's current lean spell is the one note of caution, but she handles today's going and remains the one to beat.
Form last 63152-5
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
115SR129RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 115 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Majestic Force landed a win two starts back and has experience of today's distance and going, giving her a solid platform to threaten here; the critical question is whether she can reproduce that level after a 505-day absence.
Form last 652615/
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
118SR123RPR123OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 118 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Easter Bonnet arrives on the back of a win two starts back and faces today's conditions with going experience to call on, but her weight of 150 lb is the significant burden she must overcome to confirm herself a genuine threat here.
Form last 6P-0414
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
108SR108RPR117OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 108 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Tumbling In arrives on the back of a win last time out and has placed in three of her four starts prior to that, showing admirable consistency, with experience over today's trip and going another positive; the main risk is the 47-day absence.
Form last 643-331
★AI Rating★★★★☆
115SR104RPR110OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Favourable weight of 10-10 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Unexposed and open to plenty of improvement on debut, Sea Coral steps into the unknown here carrying 141 lb, but she arrives fresh and her connections will be hopeful she can make an immediate impact.
Form last 6/-
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
103SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 103 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Tumbling In owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (64) and market confidence (93). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
13/8E McNamaraMark Walsh
69%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Majestic Force
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
3/1 · Henry de Bromhead✓ Value Signal
Sea Coral
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
12/1 · Mrs J. Harrington◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Tumbling In (SR:115, 11/8) arrives on the back of a recent win (Form:43-331, rightmost digit = 1) and has attracted massive market confidence — a 39% inward move to 11/8 favourite is the single loudest signal in this five-runner field. Mark Walsh (22% strike rate, 737 career runners) is a top-tier booking that reinforces yard intent. The 4lb weight advantage over Le Nez Creux (11-5 vs 10-10) is meaningful at 2m4f on good ground, and Course:W0P1 shows prior Listowel experience. While DistFit:? and GoingFit:? flag limited distance/going data, the convergence of market money, a winning last run, elite jockey, and light weight makes this the standout selection.
Each-way alternative: Le Nez Creux.
Main danger: Le Nez Creux — Le Nez Creux (SR:115, 11/4) shares the joint-highest SR with Tumbling In and carries top-weight 11-5 suggesting the assessor respects its ability, and while drifting 11% it remains a live threat through Gavin Cromwell's 12% stable strike rate and Keith Donoghue's reliable record.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Trainer E McNamara hits at only 10% (500 runners) — well below the field's yard averages; Cromwell, de Bromhead and Mullins all carry higher strike rates into this race.
Form:43-331 shows a sequence of thirds before the recent win; the penultimate figures suggest this horse needed time to find form and the level of that winning race is unproven against today's rivals.
GoingFit:? and DistFit:? are both unknown — at 2m4f on good ground at Listowel, Tumbling In is essentially an unknown quantity at the trip and conditions, a material blind spot at odds-on.
Course:W0P1 means one course run with no win; Le Nez Creux and Easter Bonnet both carry HG:t flags suggesting proven handling of similar conditions, giving them a concrete edge Tumbling In lacks.