Guts And Glory won last time out and has experience of today's trip and conditions, making her the one to beat under 168 lb; our rating of 103 heads the field and her recent consistency underlines her claims.
Form last 6F225-1
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
100SR103RPR101OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 100 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Consistent at the top level, Jammy Jay has finished second twice in her last five starts and has run over today's trip, making her a genuine threat off an official mark of 98 — though winless in recent starts, that elusive breakthrough remains the main concern.
Form last 648-242
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
88SR94RPR98OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 88 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Miracles Do Happen landed a win four starts back and has experience of today's going, while 164 lb is a stern weight to overcome after 58 days off the track.
Form last 661-8P8
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
79SR94RPR94OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 79 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last five starts, Blackwater Lilly nonetheless arrives in fine fettle just 17 days after a third-placed effort, has experience over today's trip, and her rating of 96 marks her as a genuine contender — the concern is whether she can finally convert her consistency into a winning run.
Form last 6-44463
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
88SR96RPR94OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 88 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Twice a winner in her last five starts, with victories three and four starts back, Lady Bee Great arrives fit on 17 days' rest and has run over today's trip before; her 159 lb burden is a concern, and back-to-back ninth and eighth finishes in recent starts give pause.
Form last 63-1189
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
53SR90RPR89OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 53 suggests ability but 80/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last five starts and ranked sixth of eight on our figures, Ballylicky Bay faces a stiff ask here, though she has placed in two of her most recent outings and has run over today's trip, while 83 days off the track leaves fitness a question mark.
Form last 6855-32
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
87SR86RPR86OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 87 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Unexposed and open to improvement, Cappa Lass has shown little in her last four starts — pulling up most recently — and remains yet to win, though 148 lb is a stiff burden to overcome on her return eighteen days later.
Form last 6/67-8P
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
66SR—RPR78OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 66 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Winless in her last five starts and ranked seventh of eight on our figures, Barafundle Bay faces a stiff ask here, and 83 days off the track adds a fitness query; the one mild positive is that she has finished fourth on two occasions in recent starts, suggesting occasional ability to hit form.
Form last 644-780
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
53SR76RPR78OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 53 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Guts And Glory owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (56) and market confidence (91). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
2/1Clive Boultbee-BrooksStan Sheppard
78%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Blackwater Lilly
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
11/4 · Neil King✓ Value Signal
Lady Bee Great
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
80/1 · Matt Sheppard◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Blackwater Lilly (SR:88, 11/2) is the standout pick on a convergence of signals: a MarkMv:-9 indicates the handicapper has dropped her 9lb since her last win, giving her a significant opportunity at this level, and the market has steamed in 16% — meaningful money in a small Class 5 field. Neil King's 23% career strike rate is the strongest trainer figure in the race, and Jack Quinlan's booking adds further confidence. The 11-10 weight gives her a 2lb advantage over the joint top-weights, and while GoingFit:- is a flag, good-to-firm hurdle ground at Warwick in September is not extreme — the market support suggests connections are undeterred. The form line -44463 shows consistent placed efforts; the 3 last time out confirms she is in decent order.
Each-way alternative: Ballylicky Bay.
Main danger: Ballylicky Bay — Ballylicky Bay (SR:87, 10/3) has steamed in 24% — the joint-strongest market move in the race — carries the lightest weight of the main contenders at 11-2, and a 855-32 form line showing a placed run last time out suggests she arrives in form, making her the most credible threat to the selection.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Form reads -44463: she has not won in this sequence and her most recent 'win' that triggered the MarkMv:-9 drop is absent from the visible form — her current trajectory is placed-but-not-winning, not…
Guts And Glory (15/8) has drifted only 21% yet still holds SR:100 vs Blackwater Lilly's SR:88 — a 12-point superiority on speed ratings at a shorter price suggests the market fundamentally rates her…
GoingFit:- is a live concern: Warwick hurdles on good-to-firm in late September can ride quicker than expected, and with no positive going flag she may not handle the conditions that others in the fi…
Ballylicky Bay (10/3) is steaming in 24% with an SR of 87 and a fresher 83-day break — a well-backed rival at an almost identical rating represents a direct market challenge that undercuts the steam…
ShortlistBlackwater Lilly, Ballylicky Bay, Guts And Glory, Jammy Jay