Tonal looks a tough sell, unplaced last time out and off a 50-day break, though he did win two starts back and again five starts back. He has run over today's trip and going, but 138 lb from stall two and a lowly ranking of ninth of nine on our figures make him hard to fancy.
Form last 6315010
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
72SR76RPR80OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 72 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Sergeant Pep is consistency personified, finishing second last time out and in the frame in all five recent runs, though he is yet to win. He has run over today's trip and going, and our rating of 89 makes him the one to beat, with 52 days off the only question.
Form last 6-23232
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
89SR89RPR79OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 89 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Alaminos has run over today's trip and sits third of nine on our rating of 83, with a second five starts back showing his ceiling, while a fourth two runs ago keeps him in the mix. The main risk is an eighth last time out, and he returns after 44 days off from stall 6.
Form last 6-27048
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
76SR83RPR80OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 76 suggests ability but 4/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Chalk Mountain has run over today's trip and going, and was third three starts back and fourth two runs ago, while our rating of 86 ranks him second of nine from draw 8. The risk is a disappointing eighth last time out, and he remains winless in his last six starts.
Form last 6746348
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
80SR86RPR78OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 80 suggests ability but 7/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last six, Follow Your Heart was only seventh last time out and returns after 111 days off, though he has run over today's trip and going before. Our rating of 81 sits above his official 77, but 135 lb from stall one looks a test.
Form last 6464007
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
49SR81RPR77OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 49 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.
Peter The Wolf arrives a last-time-out winner with a third two starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going before. The risk is a 59-day break, with 134 lb to carry from stall seven.
Form last 6-60731
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
80SR82RPR76OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
King of Chaos has one win in his last six, five starts back, but he's been unplaced last time out and finished ninth two starts back since, so he's hard to fancy. He has run over today's trip and going, and he's fresh after 26 days off, but our rating has him seventh of nine.
Form last 6717090
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
59SR79RPR73OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 59 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
He's A Gentleman was fifth last time out and has been placed twice, with a second four starts back and another five starts back, but he is winless in his last six and has finished seventh in three of them. He has run over today's trip and going, though the yard is 0/22 in the last 14 days.
Form last 6722775
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
71SR79RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 71 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Trust Amy is winless in her last six and was beaten in four of the five runs before a third last time out, so she is hard to fancy, though that effort nine days ago keeps her fit and she has run over today's trip and going. Ranked eighth of nine on our figures, she carries 122 lb from stall nine.
Form last 6397603
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
57SR77RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 57 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Peter The Wolf owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (44) and market confidence (86). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
3/1Warren GreatrexEdward Greatrex
64%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Sergeant Pep
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
4/1 · Clive Cox✓ Value Signal
Trust Amy
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
28/1 · Gary Hanmer◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Chalk Mountain (SR:80, 7/2) carries the lightest weight of the main contenders at 9-10, has a formidable course record of W3P3 at Wolverhampton which is the strongest course familiarity in the field, and the market has moved decisively in its favour — 19% in, the biggest move in the race. The 3lb drop in mark since last win (MarkMv:-3) adds further appeal, and trainer Zoe Hawkins, while a small yard, has Rob Hornby in the saddle who brings a solid 11% strike rate from 2,153 career runs. Sergeant Pep's DistFit:? means his ability to see out 7f36y is unproven, and GoingFit:~ is only moderate — by contrast Chalk Mountain's GoingFit:~ is the same but its course dominance and weight advantage tip the balance. The form figure of 8 last time is a concern but the mark has been adjusted and the market clearly expects a bounce-back.
Each-way alternative: Sergeant Pep.
Main danger: Sergeant Pep — Sergeant Pep holds the highest SR in the field at 89 — 9 points clear — and a consistent place-finding form line of -23232 from a top trainer means he will be competitive even if Chalk Mountain's course record gives the edge.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Form figure of 8 last time out is a genuine red flag — that's a poor run, and a single market move doesn't guarantee a bounce-back on a horse rated only SR:80.
Trainer Zoe Hawkins has a strike rate of just 6% from only 49 runners — a very small yard with limited firepower, which materially reduces confidence in a planned bounce-back.
Sergeant Pep (SR:89, Clive Cox 17% yard, Mulrennan 14%) has a significantly higher speed rating and a top trainer/jockey combination — Chalk Mountain is not obviously superior despite the market move.
The MarkMv:-3 drop is modest and mirrors Sergeant Pep's identical -3 adjustment, so there's no relative handicap advantage over the most dangerous rival.
ShortlistChalk Mountain, Sergeant Pep, Peter The Wolf