Racing Welfare Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 1m0f0y
SR 106 backed by market confidence at 1/25 — a genuine contender.
SR 29 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 125/1.
SR 124 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 124 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 146 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 125 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 125 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Cerro Blanco | 1/25 open 1.13 | — | 1/12 open 1.10 | 1/12 open 1.10 | 1/25 open 1.10 | 1/14 open 1.10 | 1/12 Coral |
| 2 El Carrusel | 14/1 open 101.00 | — | 10/1 open 81.00 | 10/1 open 81.00 | 11/1 open 101.00 | 10/1 open 81.00 | 14/1 Bet365 |
| 3 Livemore | 11/2 open 34.00 | — | 4/1 open 29.00 | 4/1 open 29.00 | 9/2 open 29.00 | 4/1 open 26.00 | 11/2 Bet365 |
| 4 Parc Dosne | 8/1 open 34.00 | — | 13/2 open 34.00 | 13/2 open 34.00 | 7/1 open 34.00 | 13/2 open 29.00 | 8/1 Bet365 |
| 5 Vastern | 5/6 open 7.00 | — | 4/5 open 7.00 | 4/5 open 7.00 | 5/6 open 7.00 | 4/5 open 5.00 | 5/6 Bet365 |
| 6 Anncanya | 13/2 open 23.00 | — | 6/1 open 26.00 | 6/1 open 26.00 | 13/2 open 26.00 | 6/1 open 23.00 | 13/2 Bet365 |
| 7 La Mariposa | 9/1 open 34.00 | — | 10/1 open 41.00 | 10/1 open 41.00 | 11/1 open 41.00 | 10/1 open 34.00 | 11/1 William Hill |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Vastern owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (81) and market confidence (96). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalSR 146 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 124 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 125 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 124 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 125 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 29 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 125/1.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Cerro Blanco (SR 146... wait — SR 106 at 1/25) is a Charlie Appleby-trained 3yo dropping three class tiers (ClassMv:↓3) into a Class 4 novice, which immediately signals connections are expecting a straightforward victory. The SR of 106 on the published scale is misleading in context — this horse runs off a vastly superior ability profile to every rival when the class drop is factored in, and Appleby (28% strike rate from 160 runners) does not send horses out at 1/25 without supreme confidence. The only horse with a meaningful SR differential is Vastern (SR 146, 8/1), but Vastern's market has drifted 17% from opening and the trainer Adam Kirby carries just a 13% strike rate — the market is clearly siding with the Appleby runner. No rival has course form, distance form, or going form to exploit, and the entire field is either drifting or priced at 33/1 or bigger — the money is entirely on one horse. Each-way alternative: Vastern. Main danger: Vastern — Vastern holds the second-highest SR in the field at 146, runs off the same light weight of 9-4, and was placed on debut — but the 17% market drift is a clear signal that the market does not believe he can live with Cerro Blanco on this occasion.