Guinness Open Gate Brewery Novice Steeplechase (Grade 3) · 2m2f54y
SR 143 backed by market confidence at 11/8 — a genuine contender.
SR 151 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 134 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 151 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Favourable weight of 10-11 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 135 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 153 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Shadow Paddy | 11/8 open 2.75 | — | 11/8 open 2.20 | 11/8 open 2.20 | 13/8 open 2.20 | 11/8 open 2.20 | 13/8 William Hill |
| 2 Court Canyon | 12/1 open 10.00 | — | 12/1 | 12/1 | 14/1 open 13.00 | 12/1 | 14/1 William Hill |
| 3 Le Coq Hardi | 5/1 | — | 9/2 open 6.00 | 9/2 open 6.00 | 9/2 open 6.00 | 9/2 open 6.00 | 5/1 Bet365 |
| 4 Soir De Garde | 9/2 open 7.50 | — | 4/1 open 7.50 | 4/1 open 7.50 | 7/2 open 7.50 | 4/1 open 7.50 | 9/2 Bet365 |
| 5 Wild Bill Hickok | 11/2 open 4.50 | — | 6/1 open 5.00 | 6/1 open 5.00 | 6/1 open 5.00 | 6/1 open 5.00 | 6/1 Coral |
| 6 Lady Bluebird | 28/1 open 23.00 | — | 28/1 | 28/1 | 22/1 open 29.00 | 28/1 | 28/1 Bet365 |
| 7 Queenofthelodge | 8/1 open 7.00 | — | 8/1 open 8.00 | 8/1 open 8.00 | 17/2 open 8.00 | 8/1 open 8.00 | 17/2 William Hill |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Shadow Paddy owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (79) and market confidence (94). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalSR 143 backed by market confidence at 11/8 — a genuine contender.
SR 151 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 134 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Favourable weight of 10-11 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 153 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 151 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Soir De Garde (SR:151, 9/2) is the most compelling selection once you account for the extraordinary market signal: a 33% inward move from opening price is the loudest single data point in this field, and it aligns with the W P Mullins yard (20% strike rate, 1221 runners) booking Paul Townend (30% career strike rate) — that pairing at Galway does not happen by accident. The SR of 151 is joint-highest in the field alongside Court Canyon, but Soir De Garde carries 11-1 to Court Canyon's 11-1 at 9/2 versus 12/1, making the SR-per-pound equation near-identical while the market strongly favours Soir De Garde. The form line /2FP-1 shows a last-time winner after prior jumping issues, and the Mullins-Townend axis will have satisfied themselves the horse is schooling cleanly enough to trust at Grade 3 level. The absence of DistFit and GoingFit data is a flag, but on good ground over 2m2f, a Mullins novice chaser returning fresh after 30 days is the archetype that wins this type of race. Each-way alternative: Le Coq Hardi. Main danger: Shadow Paddy — Shadow Paddy (SR:143, 11/8) is the jolted-up market favourite despite a 5% drift, carries a 23lb higher mark than last win which is a significant penalty, but the 4-star AI probability and a form line of 11P-11 showing consistent winning before the pull-up means if the jumping holds together over 2m2f, the class leader on the day could still assert.