Lingfield (AW) 17:33 RESULTED
Class 4 10 Sep 2026

Thursday 10 September Follow @attheraces On Instagram Handicap Stakes

Follow @attheraces On Instagram Handicap Stakes · 1m1y

Official Result

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Confirmed
  1. Winner Lake Como (IRE) Billy Loughnane · George Boughey
    11/2
  2. Second Kaindy (IRE)
    8/11F
  3. 22/1
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Settled
  • 6 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 1 week, 4 days ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Lake Como silks
Lake Como
Age 3 · 9-11
-34764
87
90
95
3
9-11
4/1 10/3 7/2
Winless in his last five starts, Lake Como nonetheless catches the eye as the top-rated runner in the field, and he has run over today's trip and conditions before; the concern is a consistent inability to convert his proximity into a finishing effort.
AI verdict

SR 90 suggests ability but 7/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Rogue Defence silks
Rogue Defence
Age 3 · 9-9
1514
85
90
91
3
9-9
9/1 7/2 9/1
Rogue Defence won two of his last four starts, with a victory two starts back keeping him in fine heart, and he has experience of today's distance and going; the main risk is bouncing back from a fourth last time out.
AI verdict

SR 90 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Vincenzo Peruggia silks
Vincenzo Peruggia
Age 3 · 9-9
-27004
85
85
91
3
9-9
13/2 13/2 6/1
Winless in his last five starts, Vincenzo Peruggia nonetheless caught the eye with a fourth last time out after a couple of disappointing efforts, and he has run over today's trip before; carrying 135 lb from stall two, his profile looks solid enough to make him the one to side with here.
AI verdict

SR 85 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Kaindy silks
Kaindy
Age 3 · 9-8
72-31
84
94
79
3
9-8
11/10 3/2 10/11
Ranked last on our figures and carrying 134 lb, Kaindy faces a stiff task, though he does arrive on the back of a win last time out and has run over today's trip and going before.
AI verdict

Favourable weight of 9-8 gives a real edge in this handicap.

5
Loblolly silks
Loblolly
Age 3 · 9-5
633471
81
86
86
3
9-5
15/2 9/2 7/1
Loblolly arrives here on the back of a win last time out and has experience of both today's trip and going, while his burden of 131 lb from stall five is the chief hurdle to overcome.
AI verdict

SR 86 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Queen Tamara silks
Queen Tamara
Age 3 · 9-3
12-973
79
79
84
3
9-3
12/1 15/2 12/1
Beaten in each of her last three starts and ranked fifth of six on our figures, Queen Tamara faces a stiff task here, though she does show a third last time out to go alongside a win in recent starts and has run over today's trip before.
AI verdict

SR 79 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Lake Como 4/1 open 4.33 4/1 open 4.33 4/1 open 4.50 4/1 open 4.50 7/2 4/1 open 4.50 4/1 Bet365
2 Rogue Defence 9/1 open 5.50 9/1 open 4.50 9/1 open 5.00 9/1 open 5.00 9/1 open 5.00 9/1 open 5.00 9/1 Bet365
3 Vincenzo Peruggia 13/2 open 9.00 6/1 open 8.00 6/1 open 7.50 6/1 open 7.50 6/1 open 7.50 6/1 open 7.50 13/2 Bet365
4 Kaindy 11/10 open 3.00 1/1 open 2.75 11/10 open 2.50 11/10 open 2.50 11/10 open 2.50 10/11 open 2.50 11/10 Bet365
5 Loblolly 15/2 open 5.50 15/2 open 6.50 15/2 open 6.50 15/2 open 6.50 15/2 open 6.50 7/1 open 6.50 15/2 Bet365
6 Queen Tamara 12/1 open 8.50 12/1 open 10.00 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Kaindy

Speculative

Kaindy owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (52) and market confidence (95). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

11/10 Roger Varian Ray Dawson
68% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Lake Como

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

4/1 · George Boughey
✓ Value Signal

Queen Tamara

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

12/1 · Harry Charlton
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

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Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
52 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +19.8 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
95 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +20.9 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
38 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.4 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
37 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.7 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
49 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.9 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Live signal
61 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.8 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 4. Kaindy
57.7 11/10
2 1. Lake Como
56.4 4/1
3 3. Vincenzo Peruggia
53.6 13/2
4 5. Loblolly
52.6 15/2
5 2. Rogue Defence
52.1 9/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Kaindy
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

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The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

4
Age 3 · 9-8
11/10
★★★★☆ SR 94 🐾

Favourable weight of 9-8 gives a real edge in this handicap.

1
Age 3 · 9-11
4/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 90 🐾

SR 90 suggests ability but 7/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Age 3 · 9-9
13/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 85 🐾

SR 85 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Age 3 · 9-5
15/2
★★★☆☆ SR 86 🐾

SR 86 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 3 · 9-9
9/1
★★★☆☆ SR 90 🐾

SR 90 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Age 3 · 9-3
12/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 79 🐾

SR 79 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Kaindy
Confidence: Speculative

Kaindy (SR 94, 6/5) is the class leader in this field and carries a favourable weight of 9-8 — lighter than Lake Como (9-11) despite holding the superior SR. The form string 72-31 shows a progressive profile with a recent third and win, and the 15% market shortening from opening reflects informed confidence from the Roger Varian yard (20% strike rate, 1377 runners — a serious operation). The each-way case is complicated by the short price, but the combination of highest SR, lightest-in-weights advantage over rivals, trainer quality, and steaming market makes Kaindy the standout. The main concern is GoingFit:? suggesting limited data on this going bucket, but Good on AW at Lingfield is standard fare and not a dealbreaker. Each-way alternative: Lake Como. Main danger: Rogue Defence — Rogue Defence has the best course form in the field (W2P2 at Lingfield) and a proven distance record (DistFit:+), meaning the 52% drift may be overstating weaknesses if the course specialist fires on a track it knows well.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Kaindy's form string 72-31 shows only 4 career runs — the single win came over a likely inferior field, and there's a 15-day turnaround with no AW course form on record to validate handling Lingfield…
  • Rogue Defence has gone W2P2 at this specific course and has a tighter recent form figure of 1514 — significantly more proven at Lingfield AW than Kaindy, who has no Course: entry at all.
  • At 6/5 the price leaves no margin for error; the MarkMv:= signals the market has not moved since opening despite the 15% in-move, suggesting the early support may have stalled — smart money not reinf…
  • Jockey Ray Dawson (15% strike rate, 1179 runners) is a notable step down from the Varian yard's typical top-tier bookings — the choice of a 15% jockey over stronger options may hint at stable confide…
Shortlist Kaindy, Lake Como, Rogue Defence
Each-way: Lake Como Danger: Rogue Defence

🗺 The Course Class 4

1m1y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
6 Confirmed runners
Lingfield (AW) Track and setting
Class 4 Race grade