Ire-Incentive, It Pays To Buy Irish EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race) · 0m7f0y
SR 121 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 121 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Favourable weight of 9-7 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 123 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 123 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 133 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 74 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Favourable weight of 8-13 gives a real edge in this handicap.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Diplomacy | 40/1 | — | 40/1 open 34.00 | 40/1 open 34.00 | 40/1 open 34.00 | — | 40/1 Bet365 |
| 2 Rule Of The Agency | 50/1 open 41.00 | — | 40/1 open 34.00 | 40/1 open 34.00 | 40/1 open 34.00 | — | 50/1 Bet365 |
| 3 The First Drop | 3/1 open 3.00 | — | 3/1 open 3.50 | 3/1 open 2.75 | 10/3 open 3.00 | — | 10/3 William Hill |
| 4 The Resdev Rocket | 40/1 open 51.00 | — | 40/1 | 40/1 | 40/1 | — | 40/1 Bet365 |
| 5 Special Operations | 28/1 open 26.00 | — | 25/1 open 21.00 | 25/1 open 21.00 | 28/1 open 23.00 | — | 28/1 Bet365 |
| 6 Sweet Iris | 20/1 open 41.00 | — | 22/1 | 22/1 open 29.00 | 22/1 open 34.00 | — | 22/1 Coral |
| 7 Travellers Girl | 4/1 open 3.25 | — | 4/1 open 3.00 | 4/1 open 3.00 | 4/1 open 3.25 | — | 4/1 Bet365 |
| 8 Coral Cove | 8/11 open 2.25 | — | 4/7 open 1.91 | 4/7 open 1.91 | 4/6 open 2.25 | — | 8/11 Bet365 |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Coral Cove owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (89) and market confidence (97). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalFavourable weight of 8-13 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Favourable weight of 9-7 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 74 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 133 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Coral Cove (SR 161, 8/11) is the class standout in this field by a considerable margin — 12 SR points clear of the next-best The First Drop and 28+ points ahead of the field's bulk. Dropping a class (ClassMv:↓1) into a restricted novice stakes makes this a straightforward conditions move, and the market has backed that assessment with a 21% inward move to 8/11. James Owen's 17% stable strike rate is the strongest in the field, and Kieran Shoemark (12%, 927 rides) is a confident booking. The sole concern is an unproven form string of just one run (a second), but the SR differential is emphatic enough to override that limited sample. Each-way alternative: The First Drop. Main danger: The First Drop — The First Drop (SR 149, 3/1) is the only other horse with a genuinely competitive SR and is trained by Adrian Keatley whose 16% strike rate is strong, though a 33% market drift and a class rise temper expectations.