Captain Cess shaped with real promise when runner-up last time out, and a winner two starts back gives him solid recent form to build on; he has run over today's trip and going before, and 35 days between runs leaves him fresh to go again.
Form last 66-2312
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
73SR67RPR60OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 73 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Showtime Mahomes holds the highest rating in this field and his win in his last six starts shows he can deliver when the conditions are right; he has run over today's trip and going before, but his two unplaced efforts in recent starts are the concern at 134 lb from stall seven.
Form last 6164050
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
54SR68RPR59OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 54 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 9/1.
Saisons d'Or won five starts back and has experience of both today's trip and going, so the conditions hold no terrors, while his rating of 63 ranks him third of these eleven; the concern is two sevenths in his last three starts that suggests he may be out of form.
Form last 6415767
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
47SR63RPR57OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 47 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.
Winless in her last five starts and yet to recapture the fourth she managed two runs back, Jenni does have experience of today's trip and conditions in her favour, though 47 days off the track and 132 lb to carry leave her with plenty to prove from stall 2.
Form last 60-9046
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
53SR60RPR57OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 53 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked tenth of eleven on our figures and representing a trainer who has sent out just one winner from 28 runners in the past fortnight, Filey Beach makes this hard work, despite drawing stall one, experience over today's trip and going, and a winning run six starts back.
Form last 6137445
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
58SR58RPR56OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 58 suggests ability but 9/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last five starts, Electric Lightning at least brings distance and going experience to the table, and a second two starts back hints at some residual ability — though 52 days off the track and a relatively modest official rating of 56 leave questions to answer here.
Form last 68-0024
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
56SR59RPR56OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 56 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last five starts and ranked ninth of eleven on our figures, Miss Willows faces a stiff task here; a second three starts back offers a crumb of encouragement, but fourth last time out and an official mark of 56 make her hard to fancy despite experience over today's trip and going.
Form last 6-00284
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
48SR59RPR56OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 48 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.
Winless in her last six starts and absent for 66 days, Maui Breeze faces a stiff task from stall 10 carrying 128 lb, though she has run over today's trip and going before and a rating of 60 offers some encouragement for a midfield shout.
Form last 6077059
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
31SR60RPR53OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 31 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Winless in her last five starts and ranked bottom of this field on our figures, She's A Goldigger faces a stiff ask, though she has run over today's distance and going before and a third two starts back shows she can hit the frame.
Form last 6-04530
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
28SR52RPR46OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 28 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Mister Sky Blue shaped with plenty of promise when third three starts back, and he returns fresh enough at 13 days since his last run, having run over today's trip and going; our rating of 60 puts him firmly in contention, though the trainer's current 5% strike rate is the chief concern.
Form last 6954344
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
55SR61RPR46OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 55 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Captain Cess owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (41) and market confidence (93). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
13/8Declan CarrollZak Wheatley
78%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Electric Lightning
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
13/2 · Mark Walford✓ Value Signal
Maui Breeze
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
28/1 · Wilf Storey◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Filey Beach (SR:58, 9/2) is the strongest case in a weak Class 6 field. The headline signal is Course:W3P3 — three wins and three places at Catterick is exceptional course specialisation on a track where local knowledge matters enormously. The market has shortened 12% (Mkt:in12%), confirming money is arriving with purpose. The class drop (ClassMv:↓1) is another plus, and while MarkMv:+2 is a mild negative, it is negligible in this context. The trainer Ruth Carr (10%, 789 runners) is a consistent handler of this type and James Sullivan is a regular Catterick pilot. DistFit:~ and GoingFit:~ are moderate rather than worrying — no proven dislike of trip or ground. Captain Cess is the market leader at 7/4 but carries top-weight (9-9), has no course wins (W0P1), and is on a 5lb higher mark than last win (MarkMv:+5) with GoingFit:? — the market confidence here is not fully justified by the evidence.
Each-way alternative: Captain Cess.
Main danger: Captain Cess — Captain Cess (SR:73, 7/4) holds the highest SR in the field by a clear margin and his recent form string (2-3-1-2) shows consistent finishing, which could be enough to overcome the weight burden and untested going conditions.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
James Sullivan's strike rate of just 6% (590 runners) is notably weak for a yard's supposed stable pick — a jockey booking this poor suggests connections couldn't secure a stronger pilot.
Form string 137445 shows Filey Beach's last three runs are all finishes of 4, 4, 5 — a deteriorating pattern with no win in recent outings despite operating at this level.
MarkMv:+2 means the handicapper has nudged the mark up, so today's course-win form was achieved off a lower rating than Filey Beach now carries — those Catterick wins may not be reproducible on curre…
Captain Cess at 7/4 with SR:73 is a substantial ratings superiority (15 points) over Filey Beach; even accounting for top weight, raw ability gap is hard to overcome in a Class 6 sprint.
ShortlistFiley Beach, Captain Cess, Electric Lightning, Showtime Mahomes