Faro Island won two starts back but was well beaten on his latest outing eight days ago, and while he has run over today's trip and going, his 142 lb burden and a rating of 69 ranked seventh of sixteen leave him with plenty to prove here.
Form last 6417618
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
68SR69RPR72OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 68 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Ranked top of the field on our rating, Afloat has run over today's trip and going, giving her a fitness edge over less-exposed rivals — though a 341-day absence and a trainer firing at just 3% recently make confidence hard to sustain, and she remains winless in recent starts.
Form last 653608-
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
54SR74RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 54 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 12/1.
Kashel Spring steps up on a consistent profile that has seen her progress through the frame and win in her last five starts, and she has experience over today's trip and going; the main risk is a trainer who has drawn a blank in 24 attempts over the past fortnight.
Form last 614-567
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
36SR72RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 36 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
Soaring Sun showed his ability when winning three starts back, and a third and second also sit in recent form, but eighth and seventh in his last two outings are hard to ignore after 63 days off carrying 139 lb.
Form last 623-178
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
47SR71RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 47 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Winless in her last six starts, Summer Snow nonetheless brings solid each-way claims having run over today's distance and going, and her rating of 71 marks her as a genuine threat in a wide field; the weight burden of 138 lb, however, may be the stumbling block.
Form last 6050830
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
49SR71RPR68OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 49 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.
Winless in her last five starts, Party Dress nonetheless arrives on a quick ten-day turnaround in fair trim, has run over today's trip and going, and our rating of 71 suggests she holds more ability than her official mark of 64 implies.
Form last 60-6455
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
59SR71RPR64OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 59 suggests ability but 9/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Coulstys Way shaped with some promise when third three starts back, but she's winless in her last five starts and that unseating two starts back clouds her reliability; with experience over today's trip and going, 132 lb is the key question.
Form last 68-03U9
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
46SR62RPR62OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 46 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 12/1.
Winless in her last three starts, including a seventh most recently, Shambata has experience of today's trip and going but carries a stiff 131 lb that may make life harder still for a filly ranked eighth of 16 on our ratings.
Form last 6407
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
62SR67RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 62 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last five starts and returning after a 136-day absence, Sylkie faces questions on fitness, though she has run over today's distance and going and our rating of 70 suggests she retains ability on a mark of 61.
Form last 69734-0
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
57SR70RPR61OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 57 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last three starts and returning after a 137-day absence, A Man's Horse carries 127 lb off an official mark of 57, and with our rating placing him eleventh of sixteen, he faces a stiff task to reverse recent form here.
Form last 600-0
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
27SR53RPR57OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 27 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.
Winless in her last three starts and ranked well adrift of the field on our figures, Zesty Belle faces a stiff ask here, with a modest official rating of 56 and an unplaced effort last time out doing little to inspire confidence, though 36 days between runs at least suggests she returns fresh.
Form last 648-0
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
28SR50RPR56OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 28 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Winless in her last five starts, Belle Nuit returns after 39 days with going experience in her favour, though consecutive unplaced efforts through the middle of that run temper confidence; a fourth last time out at least suggests she retains some ability.
Form last 6540-04
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
61SR65RPR62OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 61 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Venerini has been out of the frame in all three of her recent starts and our rating ranks her near the foot of this field, making her very hard to fancy; 21 days between runs at least suggests she arrives fresh, but she remains winless in recent starts.
Form last 6080
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
30SR49RPR55OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 30 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
Canon Law won two starts back but was sixth last time, and our rating of 50 ranks him fourteenth of sixteen here; he has run over today's trip and going, but it is very hard to fancy on current form.
Form last 6662516
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
52SR50RPR53OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 52 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in her last six starts, with two unplaced efforts among them, My Vonnie is hard to fancy from 12th in the ratings, though she has run over today's distance and going before and a fifth last time out at least shows some signs of life.
Form last 6666005
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
24SR50RPR41OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 24 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.
Winless in her last six starts and ranked bottom of the field on our figures, Idomything is hard to fancy despite returning on a quick ten-day turnaround and having run over today's trip before.
Form last 6870600
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
26SR37RPR40OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 26 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Faro Island owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (38) and market confidence (84). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
7/2A OliverSam Coen
67%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Shambata
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
7/1 · J P Murtagh✓ Value Signal
A Man's Horse
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
25/1 · Cian Hughes◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Faro Island (SR:68, 3/1) is the clear SR leader in this field by 6 points over Shambata and holds a proven DistFit:+ at 1m4f — the only runner with a confirmed positive distance record. The market has shortened 6% and the booking of Sam Coen (13%, 184 runners) is the strongest jockey combination in the race. The GoingFit:- flag is the main concern, but the SR edge (68 vs next-best 62) combined with top trainer A Oliver, market confidence, and distance suitability outweigh that reservation, especially as the going is Good rather than genuinely soft where the flag would bite harder. The MarkMv:+6 is a minor negative but manageable at this class level with 9 other runners carrying question marks over distance and going.
Each-way alternative: Shambata.
Main danger: Shambata — Shambata (SR:62, 6/1) carries only 9-5 for JP Murtagh's yard — a trainer with 11% strike rate and 700 runners — and as a 3-year-old running off a short 8-day turnaround showing trainer confidence, the featherweight and yard quality could unlock untapped improvement at this longer trip.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
GoingFit:- flag is a direct negative for Faro Island on today's Good ground — trainer A Oliver wins at only 10%, so the stable's strike rate provides little buffer if the going is genuinely uncomfort…
MarkMv:+6 means Faro Island runs off a 6lb higher mark than its last outing — with a form string of 417618 showing inconsistency, a higher weight can expose those weaker efforts in a 16-runner handic…
Only 8 days since last run; the form figure '8' (8th) in its most recent start is a poor return, and back-to-back quick turnarounds with a GoingFit:- flag raises fitness-versus-freshness doubts.
Belle Nuit (SR:61, 6/1) and Shambata (SR:62, 6/1) are both market-fresh rivals with no significant drifts and competitive SRs — at bigger prices they represent live dangers that compress Faro Island'…
ShortlistFaro Island, Shambata, Belle Nuit, Party Dress