Consistent placed form makes Red Hat Eagle a clear threat here — second last time out, he has run over today's trip and going, and our rating has him narrowly on top, though the challenge is he remains winless in recent starts.
Form last 6554752
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
72SR76RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 72 suggests ability but 10/3 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winner five days ago and fit as a fiddle, The Childe Of Hale brings strong recent form to this test, with experience of today's trip and conditions working in his favour; carrying 135 lb from stall 11 gives connections something to ponder, but his profile makes him our pick.
Form last 66-9051
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
71SR75RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 71 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Forest Caper shaped with plenty of promise when second three starts back and has run over today's trip and going, with our rating of 75 putting him right in contention from stall two; the concern is he has been winless in recent starts and must find more after finishing fifth last time out.
Form last 6344205
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
54SR75RPR68OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 54 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Evocative Spark showed he can win, landing victories four and six starts back in recent form, but back-to-back finishes of seventh and ninth since then are a concern; experience over today's trip and going, plus a 28-day break, give him something to build on from stall seven carrying 133 lb.
Form last 6171479
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
61SR68RPR68OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 61 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 12/1.
Winless in her last five starts, Surprised does at least return to familiar distance and going conditions, and a third three starts back offers a crumb of encouragement; however, 71 days off the track and a hefty 132 lb from stall nine are the obvious questions to answer.
Form last 6-06387
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
50SR70RPR67OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 50 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Winless in her last five starts, Folkene has at least shown some consistency with a pair of fourth-place finishes in that sequence, though a seventh last time out tempers expectations; she has run over today's trip and going, carries 132 lb from stall eight, and returns on a quick ten-day turnaround.
Form last 6-64047
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
62SR69RPR67OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 62 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Honved has run over today's distance and going and arrives here fresh on a 12-day turnaround, with our rating of 71 putting him notably ahead of his official mark; the concern is that he has been winless in his last five starts, with two unplaced efforts most recently testing patience.
Form last 65540-0
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
43SR71RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 43 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 100/1.
Novak won last time out and has run over today's trip and going, which counts in his favour, but two finishes outside the frame in his last six starts suggest consistency remains a question, and 130 lb is no featherweight ask.
Form last 6234421
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
71SR69RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 71 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Avatar Jet has mustered just one win in his last six starts, finishing fifth in each of his two most recent outings, and ranked ninth of twelve on our figures he faces a stiff task here; he has run over today's trip and going before, and 14 days between runs suggests he arrives fresh.
Form last 6134755
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
64SR67RPR63OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 64 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Camera Shy has been winless in his last six starts, finishing no better than fourth in recent outings, and ranked 11th of 12 on our figures he faces a stiff task here; the positives are limited to experience over today's trip and going, and a run just five days ago confirming fitness.
Form last 6764559
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
54SR63RPR61OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 54 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 12/1.
Winless in her last five starts and ranked last on our figures, Jenni has little in her favour beyond experience over today's trip and going, and six days between runs suggests fitness is not the concern — her form simply makes her very hard to fancy here.
Form last 6-90465
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
47SR59RPR57OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 47 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.
Winless in his last five starts, with finishes of seventh, unplaced, eighth and ninth in four of those, Precious Spartan is hard to fancy at a lowly official rating of 55, though he has run over today's trip and going before and returns on a sharp 13-day turnaround.
Form last 63-9807
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
36SR63RPR55OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 36 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Avatar Jet owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (36) and market confidence (79). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
9/2Declan CarrollZak Wheatley
64%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Red Hat Eagle
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
10/3 · William Knight✓ Value Signal
Precious Spartan
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
28/1 · Patrick Neville◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Red Hat Eagle (SR 72, 10/3) is the joint top-rated runner but crucially carries the same 9-9 as The Childe Of Hale while sitting 7lb lower than at his last win (MarkMv:-7), representing the most favourable handicap mark of any horse in this field. His GoingFit:~ and DistFit:~ at 7f are workable on good ground, and Cieren Fallon (18% strike rate from 1,812 rides) is a clear upgrade in jockey quality over most rivals. The combination of a meaningful mark reduction, the top SR in the field, and a high-calibre jockey booking makes him the logical selection in a weak Class 5 contest.
Each-way alternative: Folkene.
Main danger: The Childe Of Hale — The Childe Of Hale matches Red Hat Eagle on SR (71) and weight (9-9), is a younger 4-year-old with potential upside, and last ran just 5 days ago suggesting connections are chasing a race — though the GoingFit:- and class rise (↑1) are real concerns.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Form reads 554752 — no win in last 6 outings and has been beaten in similar Class 5 company repeatedly; the -7 mark reduction hasn't yet triggered a return to winning ways.
GoingFit:~ and DistFit:~ both unconfirmed — no solid evidence he handles today's exact 7f trip at Thirsk on current going, unlike rivals with course or distance form on record.
The Childe Of Hale (same SR 71, same weight, fresher 5-day turnaround, 3-star rating vs Red Hat Eagle's 2-star) represents equal market value with better recent handicap form (0051 run-style) and you…
Novak (SR 71, 6/1) carries 5lb less at 9-4, ran 234421 showing consistent placing form, and despite a slight market drift is only marginally longer — offering a credible same-SR threat at a superior…
ShortlistRed Hat Eagle, The Childe Of Hale, Novak, Folkene