Carlisle 14:42 RESULTED
Class 5 9 Sep 2026

Wednesday 9 September Andersons - Quality For The Home Nursery Handicap Stakes

Andersons - Quality For The Home Nursery Handicap Stakes · 0m5f182y

Official Result

Andersons - Quality For The Home Nursery Handicap Stakes

Confirmed
  1. Winner Caturra Lights (GB) M. P. Sheehy · Adrian Keatley
    11/1
  2. 11/1
  3. 10/1
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Settled
  • 10 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 1 week, 5 days ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Caturra Lights silks
Caturra Lights
Age 2 · 9-9
339
74
66
81
2
9-9
9/2 8/1 7/2
Consecutive thirds two and three starts back mark Caturra Lights as a consistent threat, he carries 135 lb from stall two and has run over today's trip, and our rating has him clear on top; the main risk is a below-par return from 102 days off, highlighted by that ninth last time out.
AI verdict

SR 66 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Fast Performer silks
Fast Performer
Age 2 · 9-7
24
72
74
75
2
9-7
5/2 32/17 9/4
Fast Performer has run over today's trip and steps back out after 34 days with a second two starts back giving him a solid recent profile; a trainer firing at 27% over the last 14 days boosts appeal, and our rating of 75 marks him as a leading contender despite being yet to win in recent starts.
AI verdict

SR 74 suggests ability but 2/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
North Star Kodi silks
North Star Kodi
Age 2 · 9-5
33
70
69
74
2
9-5
5/1 6/1 9/2
Yet to score in his last two starts, both thirds, North Star Kodi returns after 105 days off and has experience over today's trip, with our rating edging above his official mark offering a small foothold; the lengthy absence is the question he must answer.
AI verdict

SR 69 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Social Spirit silks
Social Spirit
Age 2 · 9-4
356803
69
64
74
2
9-4
8/1 7/1 8/1
Social Spirit shaped with promise when third last time out and, fresh off a 20-day break carrying 130 lb from stall three, he has experience of today's trip and conditions to call upon; the concern is that he remains winless in his last six starts.
AI verdict

SR 64 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Donegal Rose silks
Donegal Rose
Age 2 · 9-4
5149
69
57
71
2
9-4
14/1 18/1 12/1
Donegal Rose won three starts back but has since finished fifth and fourth before a tame ninth last time out, so her form is inconsistent at best; she has run over today's trip and carries 130 lb from stall 10, though 39 days off the track adds a further unknown.
AI verdict

SR 57 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.

6
My Normandie silks
My Normandie
Age 2 · 9-3
7565
68
55
63
2
9-3
12/1 10/1 12/1
Winless in her last four starts and rated well below the field on our figures, My Normandie faces a stiff task here; she has run over today's trip and carries 129 lb from stall five, but consistency has been elusive and 62 days off adds further uncertainty.
AI verdict

SR 55 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Harlequin Gift silks
Harlequin Gift
Age 2 · 9-3
753
68
53
65
2
9-3
12/1 7/1 10/1
Winless in her last three starts and ranked eighth of ten on our figures, Harlequin Gift faces a stiff task here, though a third last time out offers a crumb of comfort and she has run over today's trip and going before.
AI verdict

SR 53 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.

8
State Of Gold silks
State Of Gold
Age 2 · 9-3
85721
68
75
71
2
9-3
11/2 5/2 5/1
State of Gold arrives here on the back of a win last time out and a second two starts back, but that seventh three starts back tempers enthusiasm; she has run over today's trip and the 27-day break looks straightforward, though 129 lb is a stiff ask.
AI verdict

SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

9
Ponte Carlo silks
Ponte Carlo
Age 2 · 8-13
386354
64
52
74
2
8-13
22/1 16/1 20/1
Ponte Carlo shaped with promise when third three starts back and stands on our rating of 74, suggesting he retains more ability than his official mark of 64 reflects; the concern is that he has gone winless in his last six starts.
AI verdict

SR 52 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.

10
Excessive silks
Excessive
Age 2 · 8-9
4594
60
40
63
2
8-9
40/1 11/1 33/1
Winless in his last four starts and ranked last on our figures, Excessive is hard to fancy, though he has run over today's distance and going before and returns after 29 days off a feasible weight of 121 lb from stall nine.
AI verdict

SR 40 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Caturra Lights 9/2 open 11.00 9/2 open 9.00 9/2 open 12.00 9/2 open 12.00 9/2 open 12.00 7/2 open 12.00 9/2 Bet365
2 Fast Performer 5/2 open 4.00 5/2 open 3.25 9/4 open 2.88 9/4 open 2.88 9/4 open 2.88 5/2 open 2.88 5/2 Bet365
3 North Star Kodi 5/1 open 7.00 9/2 open 8.00 5/1 open 7.50 5/1 open 7.50 5/1 open 8.00 11/2 open 7.50 11/2 Betfred
4 Social Spirit 8/1 open 11.00 10/1 open 8.00 9/1 open 9.00 9/1 open 9.00 9/1 open 8.50 9/1 open 8.50 10/1 Paddy Power
5 Donegal Rose 14/1 open 29.00 14/1 open 19.00 14/1 open 21.00 14/1 open 21.00 14/1 open 19.00 12/1 open 19.00 14/1 Bet365
6 My Normandie 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 12/1 Bet365
7 Harlequin Gift 12/1 open 8.00 12/1 open 9.00 11/1 open 8.50 11/1 open 8.50 10/1 open 9.00 10/1 open 8.50 12/1 Bet365
8 State Of Gold 11/2 open 3.50 11/2 open 4.50 6/1 open 3.75 6/1 open 3.75 11/2 open 3.75 5/1 open 3.75 6/1 Coral
9 Ponte Carlo 22/1 open 17.00 20/1 open 17.00 22/1 open 17.00 22/1 open 17.00 20/1 open 17.00 22/1 open 21.00 22/1 Bet365
10 Excessive 40/1 open 12.00 33/1 open 19.00 33/1 open 17.00 33/1 open 17.00 33/1 open 17.00 33/1 open 17.00 40/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

State Of Gold

Speculative

State Of Gold owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (42) and market confidence (75). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

11/2 Craig Lidster Clifford Lee
68% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Fast Performer

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

5/2 · William Haggas
✓ Value Signal

Excessive

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

40/1 · Tim Easterby
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
42 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +15.8 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence High conviction
75 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +16.4 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
34 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.4 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Speculative
48 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.8 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor High conviction
59 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.9 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
51 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.1 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 8. State Of Gold
52.8 11/2
2 2. Fast Performer
50.8 5/2
3 3. North Star Kodi
49.9 5/1
4 1. Caturra Lights
49.0 9/2
5 4. Social Spirit
46.5 8/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Fast Performer
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

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The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

2
Age 2 · 9-7
5/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 74 🐾

SR 74 suggests ability but 2/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

1
Age 2 · 9-9
9/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 66 🐾

SR 66 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Age 2 · 9-5
5/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 69 🐾

SR 69 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Age 2 · 9-3
11/2
★★★☆☆ SR 75 🐾

SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Age 2 · 9-4
8/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 64 🐾

SR 64 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Age 2 · 9-3
12/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 55 🐾

SR 55 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 2 · 9-3
12/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 53 🐾

SR 53 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.

5
Age 2 · 9-4
14/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 57 🐾

SR 57 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Fast Performer
Confidence: Speculative

Fast Performer (SR 74, 2/1) is the highest-rated horse on a going-adjusted basis, carries a very manageable 9-7, and is trained by William Haggas (21% strike rate, 1,154 runners — the strongest training operation in the field by a clear margin) with Cieren Fallon booked (19% career strike rate). The drop from Class 4 to Class 5 is a meaningful class relief and the tongue-tie applied first-time often sharpens juveniles. The form of 24 — a fourth and a second — shows consistent improvement and the market at 2/1 reflects genuine confidence. The GoingFit is unknown for all runners so no horse has a confirmed going advantage, but Haggas juveniles dropping in class typically outperform. Each-way alternative: State Of Gold. Main danger: State Of Gold — State Of Gold (SR 75, 3/1) is actually the joint-highest SR in the field, won last time out (form: 85721, rightmost = 1), and carries only 9-3 — 4lb less than Fast Performer — though the MarkMv:+5 and ClassMv:↑1 are genuine concerns that explain the preference for Fast Performer.

Case against 4 clamped
  • State Of Gold (SR:75) is actually rated 1 point higher and arrives on a strong winning run (form 85721 — won last time out), representing a live market rival at 3/1 that Fast Performer's SR cannot di…
  • Fast Performer's only starts are a 4th and a 2nd — it has never won a race, and at 2/1 in a field where State Of Gold brings a fresher, more progressive profile, the price looks thin for a horse stil…
  • First-time tongue-tie on a juvenile is a variable not a certainty — if the horse reacts badly to the equipment change it could underperform, and there is no prior evidence it improves the horse speci…
  • 34 days since last run in a juvenile race at this time of season is a mid-range gap; State Of Gold ran just 27 days ago, potentially sharper, and Haggas's advantage here is diluted by the fact Lidste…
Shortlist Fast Performer, State Of Gold, North Star Kodi
Each-way: State Of Gold Danger: State Of Gold

🗺 The Course Class 5

0m5f182y Distance to cover
Good to Soft Expected going
10 Confirmed runners
Carlisle Track and setting
Class 5 Race grade