Lpd Maiden Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race) · 1m3f39y
SR 149 backed by market confidence at 11/4 — a genuine contender.
SR 123 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 150 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 89 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 124 suggests ability but 200/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 121 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 152 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 46 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 122 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Favourable weight of 9-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 128 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Lord Byron | 9/2 open 3.00 | 9/2 open 3.25 | 11/2 open 3.50 | 11/2 open 3.50 | 5/1 open 3.50 | 5/1 open 3.50 | 11/2 Coral |
| 2 Togeather Forever | 40/1 open 81.00 | 25/1 open 101.00 | 28/1 open 41.00 | 28/1 open 41.00 | 25/1 open 41.00 | 40/1 open 34.00 | 40/1 Bet365 |
| 3 Act Of Generosity | 7/2 open 7.50 | 7/2 | 10/3 open 4.00 | 10/3 open 4.00 | 7/2 open 4.00 | 7/2 open 4.00 | 7/2 Bet365 |
| 4 Blue Hercules | 4/1 | 7/2 open 3.75 | 3/1 open 4.33 | 3/1 open 4.33 | 7/2 | 7/2 open 4.33 | 4/1 Bet365 |
| 5 Casement Park | 200/1 open 101.00 | 200/1 | 100/1 open 201.00 | 100/1 open 201.00 | 200/1 | 200/1 | 200/1 Bet365 |
| 6 Chico Dorado | 40/1 open 26.00 | 40/1 open 34.00 | 28/1 open 34.00 | 28/1 open 34.00 | 40/1 open 34.00 | 40/1 open 34.00 | 40/1 Bet365 |
| 7 Flagbearer | 10/3 open 6.50 | 7/2 open 8.00 | 3/1 open 6.00 | 3/1 open 6.00 | 7/2 open 6.50 | 7/2 open 6.00 | 7/2 Paddy Power |
| 8 Impierious | 17/2 open 6.50 | 9/1 open 9.00 | 9/1 open 7.50 | 9/1 open 7.50 | 9/1 open 7.50 | 17/2 open 7.50 | 9/1 Paddy Power |
| 9 Mighty Wave | 66/1 open 34.00 | 50/1 open 26.00 | 33/1 | 33/1 | 50/1 open 34.00 | 50/1 open 34.00 | 66/1 Bet365 |
| 10 Wadacre Icon | 33/1 open 15.00 | 50/1 open 17.00 | 28/1 open 19.00 | 28/1 open 19.00 | 33/1 open 19.00 | 40/1 open 19.00 | 50/1 Paddy Power |
| 11 Harper Violet | 5/1 open 5.50 | 9/2 open 7.00 | 4/1 open 6.00 | 4/1 open 6.00 | 9/2 open 6.00 | 9/2 open 6.00 | 5/1 Bet365 |
| 12 Lazy In Red | 125/1 open 101.00 | 100/1 | 80/1 open 101.00 | 80/1 open 101.00 | 100/1 | 125/1 open 101.00 | 125/1 Bet365 |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Act Of Generosity owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (83) and market confidence (84). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalSR 152 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 150 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 89 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 149 backed by market confidence at 11/4 — a genuine contender.
Favourable weight of 9-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Flagbearer (SR 152, 4/1) holds the highest SR in the field bar Act Of Generosity, carries a favourable 9-7 against Lord Byron's 10-0, drops a class (ClassMv:↓1) into this maiden, and is backed by William Haggas (21% strike rate, 1154 runners) with James Doyle (18% SR) in the plate — a top-tier pairing that rarely turns up at Carlisle without intent. The 14% market shortening confirms stable confidence and the weight advantage over Lord Byron (7lb) is significant at 1m3f on good-to-soft ground. Form of 4-3 is unspectacular but both runs came in tougher company; dropping in class here with market support is the key unlock. Each-way alternative: Harper Violet. Main danger: Lord Byron — Lord Byron (SR 149, 11/4) is the market leader and despite the 7lb weight disadvantage versus Flagbearer and a 6% drift, his 4-year-old experience and cheekpieces (first-time headgear effect) could see him prove his class at this level on ground that suits a hold-up stayer.