Caught the eye with a second two starts back, and a winner five starts back, Monsieur Kodi brings solid recent form to conditions he has tackled before, and 44 days between runs should leave him fresh enough to go close from stall 11 off 140 lb.
Form last 6317424
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
71SR83RPR75OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 71 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
They All Know Me arrives on the back of a win four starts back and returns in good order on 19 days' rest, with experience of both today's trip and going working in his favour; the fourth last time out is the concern, though his rating of 85 marks him as the one to beat.
Form last 6881804
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
75SR85RPR73OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 75 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Runninsonofagun won last time out and has experience of today's trip and going in his favour, but a mark of 71 and 136 lb represent a stiff ask, and two wins in his last six starts suggest he blows hot and cold.
Form last 6132261
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
77SR75RPR71OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 77 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
One Night Thunder arrives fresh on 11 days' rest, has run over today's trip and going, and our rating of 82 marks him out as a leading contender from stall 5 carrying 136 lb; the concern is that he is winless in his last six starts, with just one placed effort in that run.
Form last 6038765
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
73SR82RPR71OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 73 suggests ability but 7/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Three wins in his last six starts give The Gay Blade some claims, but ranked last of the runners on our figures and unplaced last time out after 65 days off, he faces a stiff ask at 135 lb.
Form last 6611150
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
62SR72RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 62 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last four starts and ranked tenth of eleven on our figures, Leopards Rock faces a stiff ask here; a return after 42 days and experience over today's trip are the modest positives, though a fifth last time out leaves little to cling to.
Form last 63235
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
59SR73RPR73OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 59 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Sandy Craic arrives in fine fettle, placed in three of her last four starts — second two runs back and third last time out — and has experience of both today's trip and conditions; the concern is whether 132 lb from stall one will anchor her late.
Form last 6551223
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
77SR79RPR71OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 77 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in her last six starts but Albeseeingyer has shown consistency of late, finishing third in each of her past two outings, and she has experience of today's distance and going; 131 lb and a ranking of eighth of eleven temper expectations.
Form last 6025633
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
65SR74RPR66OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 65 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Won two starts back and was runner-up last time out, so Von Trotter arrives in decent nick after 22 days off, and he has run over today's trip before; however, that sixth and seventh in earlier starts hint at inconsistency, and 129 lb is no light burden from stall eight.
Form last 6076212
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
75SR75RPR68OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 75 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Showed a willing streak when winning two starts back, and a runner-up finish three starts back adds to the case, but he has gone unplaced in his most recent outing and our rating of 74 leaves him in mid-division among these rivals; has run over today's trip and going, and 32 days off should mean fitness is fine.
Form last 6-09210
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
56SR74RPR68OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 56 suggests ability but - reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last six starts and ranked ninth of eleven on our figures, Only Dream Big faces a stiff task here, though she has run over today's distance and going before and a second last time out offers a sliver of encouragement ahead of a quick five-day turnaround.
Form last 6556352
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
62SR73RPR61OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 62 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
One Night Thunder owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (41) and market confidence (87). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
11/4Gemma TuttySam James
72%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
They All Know Me
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
7/1 · Richard & Peter Fahey✓ Value Signal
The Gay Blade
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
18/1 · Iain Jardine◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Runninsonofagun (SR:77, 11/2) has steamed in 24% in the market — the strongest market move in the field — which combined with a top-joint SR of 77 and a last-time-out win (form reads 132261, rightmost = 1) makes a compelling multi-signal case. Trainer Tristan Davidson runs at a healthy 20% strike rate from 150 runners, and jockey Rowan Scott at 12% is a solid booking. The 9-10 weight is competitive, lighter than stableyard rivals, and the blinkers headgear (b) worn today matches a horse who has been progressive. Course form shows W0P2 at Carlisle providing familiarity with the track, and dropping back on a same-class mark (+3 above last win) is manageable given the recency of that win 16 days ago.
Each-way alternative: One Night Thunder.
Main danger: One Night Thunder — One Night Thunder (SR:73, 7/2) has shortened 22% in the market, boasts the best course record in the field (Course:W2P2), has a confirmed GoingFit:+ for today's good-to-soft ground, and drops a class (ClassMv:↓1) — a potent combination of track specialist credentials and market confidence that makes it the most credible threat to the selection.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
One Night Thunder has superior Carlisle course form (W2P2 vs W0P2) and a stronger market move (in22%) at shorter odds 7/2, representing a more proven threat at this specific track.
Form string 132261 shows a '2' immediately before the LTO win, suggesting inconsistency — the horse has placed or won in only 3 of last 6 starts with two mid-field finishes sandwiched in.
Sandy Craic matches the SR of 77 and carries 4lb less (9-6 vs 9-10), with a top jockey booking (Tudhope 16%) — the weight pull could be decisive on Carlisle's testing undulations.
Mark has risen +3 above last winning mark, and blinkers first-time today introduce an unknown element — if the headgear fails to settle the horse or causes it to race too freely, the run could unrave…
ShortlistRunninsonofagun, One Night Thunder, They All Know Me, Von Trotter
Each-way: One Night ThunderDanger: One Night Thunder