Winless in her last five starts, Adrestia arrives here 47 days fresh and with experience of both today's trip and conditions, and a rating of 101 makes her one of the stronger profiles in the field despite the wide draw from stall 14.
Form last 66-7800
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
89SR101RPR92OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 89 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Wheels Of Fire won two starts back but has posted a pair of sevenths either side of that success, making his recent form hard to trust; he has run over today's trip and going before, though a struggling trainer and a speed rating below his official mark are concerns.
Form last 6064717
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
79SR90RPR88OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 79 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Rated highest in the field and carrying 135 lb from stall 12, The Man brings experience over today's trip and going and catches the eye on a speed rating of 91; the concern is that he has been winless in his last six starts, with a seventh last time out suggesting he needs to find improvement quickly.
Form last 6666007
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
86SR101RPR87OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 86 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Novello Lad has experience over today's trip and going, and his two wins in his last six starts show he can find the frame, but three consecutive unplaced efforts heading into this, carrying 134 lb from stall 10, give fair cause for caution.
Form last 6311800
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
63SR86RPR86OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 63 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ancient State has back-to-back victories buried three and four starts back, but three subsequent efforts have yielded a pair of fifths and a second, and our figures rank him thirteenth of sixteen here, making him difficult to fancy at the weights despite experience over today's trip and going.
Form last 6511552
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
89SR84RPR85OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 89 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Fortification showed smart form when winning in recent starts and has experience of today's distance and going, making him a serious player from stall 16 off 133 lb; the main concern is his trainer's poor recent strike-rate of just 4%.
Form last 6143074
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
83SR92RPR86OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 83 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Back-to-back wins make Maelstrom the one on the upward curve here, and eight days between runs suggests he arrives fresh, but carrying 132 lb is a stiff ask and his record in recent starts also includes a fifth and an eighth.
Form last 60-8511
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
92SR88RPR84OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 92 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Paddy's Day is yet to win in his last six starts, though a third two runs back shows he can threaten, and he has run over today's distance and going before; a cold trainer spell — one from 22 over the last fortnight — and a disappointing ninth last time out are the concerns here.
Form last 6572739
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
64SR90RPR84OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 64 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Canon's House showed up third three starts back but has since slipped to seventh last time out, and winless in his last six starts, the 131 lb burden from stall 8 makes life harder still, even if he has experience over today's trip and going.
Form last 6506347
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
77SR89RPR83OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 77 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Novelette won twice in her last five starts, and has run over today's trip and going, but back-to-back fifths most recently and a 105-day absence make her hard to fancy, and she ranks near the foot of our figures here.
Form last 62115-5
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
64SR80RPR84OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 64 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Changeofmind has found some form of late, finishing third last time out and second two starts back, though a sixth three starts back tempers enthusiasm; he has experience over today's trip and going, and 130 lb is no featherweight, even from stall two.
Form last 6187623
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
62SR88RPR82OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 62 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Hypnotised arrives on the back of consecutive runner-up finishes and has run over today's trip and going, though a seventh three starts back hints at inconsistency; carrying 130 lb from stall 4, he remains a lively contender without necessarily being the dominant force in this field.
Form last 641-722
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
93SR85RPR83OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 93 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Ranked 14 of 16 on our figures, Equity Law faces a stiff task on ratings, though his recent form is genuinely eye-catching — a winner two starts back and again last time out, carrying 129 lb from stall six after a 30-day break, with experience over today's trip and going.
Form last 6360211
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
72SR82RPR81OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 72 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked bottom of the field on our figures and carrying a stiff 129 lb from stall 7, Henrythenate looks hard to fancy despite winning last time out — inconsistency has been his hallmark in recent starts, and he has experience of today's distance and going to call on.
Form last 6875041
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
58SR77RPR82OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 58 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Jer Batt has been knocking on the door with thirds two and three starts back, and our rating of 92 marks him as a lively threat in a competitive field; drawn 15 and yet to win in recent starts, converting is the obvious challenge.
Form last 6733454
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
83SR92RPR80OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 83 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Venture Capital has been winless in his last six starts, with finishes of fourth, ninth, and eighth among recent efforts, and ranked 12 of 16 on our figures he faces a stiff ask here; the 12-day turnaround at least has him relatively fresh, and he has run over today's trip and going before.
Form last 6870894
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
72SR85RPR77OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 72 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Ancient State owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (49) and market confidence (72). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
6/1Adam KirbyCallum Rodriguez
65%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Adrestia
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
11/2 · Simon & Ed Crisford✓ Value Signal
Novelette
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
40/1 · Simon & Ed Crisford◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Ancient State (SR:89, 15/2, 9-7) combines the strongest multi-signal case in the field: DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ confirm proven effectiveness at today's trip and going, a recent form line of 511552 shows consistent competitiveness including multiple wins, and crucially the market has steamed in 41% — the sharpest move in the entire field — suggesting informed money is very confident despite the step up in class. Callum Rodriguez's 19% strike rate on 1,306 rides is the best jockey booking in this race. The class rise (↑1) is the one concern, and the mark is 7lb higher than last win, but the weight (9-7) is lighter than the top four and the going/distance fit offsets the class jump convincingly.
Each-way alternative: Maelstrom.
Main danger: Maelstrom — Maelstrom (SR:92, 13/2, 9-6) is the highest-rated horse in the field, carries a light weight relative to ability, has DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ confirmed, and back-to-form figures of 8511 show two recent wins — only a slight drift (Mkt:out6%) and Jack Dace's modest 10% strike rate give pause.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Ancient State's only Doncaster run resulted in a 0 wins from 1 place — no course winning form here, while rivals like Novello Lad (W3P7 course record) have proven track affinity.
Mark up +7lb is the joint-highest in the field and represents a significant rise; the last win came off a 7lb lower mark, meaning today's handicap ceiling hasn't been tested.
Trainer Adam Kirby has only an 11% strike rate from a modest 143 rides — the weakest training operation among the fancied runners, and well below the Crisford/Murphy and Williams/Dace combinations.
Maelstrom (SR:92, 13/2) carries a superior speed rating, lighter weight (9-6), just 8 days since last run showing peak fitness, and is the market's joint-shortest price — a direct and arguably strong…