Back-to-back wins before her third last time out keep Alpha firmly in the picture, and she has run over today's trip and going before; the main query is whether 128 lb blunts her finishing kick.
Form last 62113
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
113SR105RPR103OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 113 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Ranked bottom of the field on our figures and returning after 78 days off, Ballinea Star is hard to fancy at the weights, though she does arrive on the back of consecutive wins and has experience over today's trip and going.
Form last 65411
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
80SR93RPR101OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 80 suggests ability but 66/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Controlla shaped with promise when finishing second three starts back, and her experience over today's trip and going keeps her firmly in the mix at a rating of 108, though her run of winless efforts in recent starts and 78 days off the track are the chief concerns.
Form last 6205
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
82SR108RPR99OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 82 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked bottom but one on our figures and rated below her official mark, Dancing Destiny faces a stiff ask here, though she does have experience of this distance and going, hit the frame last time out, and 22 days between runs suggests she arrives fresh.
Form last 6134122
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
95SR100RPR104OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 95 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Green Empress arrives in fine heart after winning last time out and finishing second twice in the two starts before that, and her experience over today's trip and going underlines her strong claims — the main risk is whether 128 lb stretches her stamina late on.
Form last 6221
★AI Rating★★★★☆
120SR111RPR105OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Favourable weight of 9-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Ibelieveicanfly won two starts back but has finished fourth on three occasions in recent starts, and while she has run over today's distance and going before and steps out from stall one carrying 128 lb, her inconsistency is the key concern here.
Form last 6424144
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
81SR101RPR100OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 81 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Sun Goddess arrives on a four-wins-in-last-six streak, with back-to-back victories making her the one to beat here, and she has experience over today's trip and going to call on; a 24-day absence and 128 lb are the only questions her rivals can ask.
Form last 6212111
★AI Rating★★★★☆
133SR122RPR114OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Favourable weight of 9-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Sun Goddess owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (74) and market confidence (97). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
8/11A P O'BrienRyan Moore
80%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Green Empress
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
11/4 · Joseph Patrick O'Brien✓ Value Signal
Controlla
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
50/1 · Robson De Aguiar◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Sun Goddess (SR 133, 8/13) is the clear standout on every meaningful signal. Her form string of 212111 shows six consecutive good runs culminating in three straight wins, and the market has firmed 14% into 8/13 — the money is not drifting. Ryan Moore (24% career strike rate, 1020 runners — the highest strike rate in this field) takes the ride, a major plus in a Group 1 for A P O'Brien (23%, 1256 runners). Course:W2P2 at the Curragh is outstanding for a two-year-old, DistFit:+ confirms she handles seven furlongs, and while GoingFit is marked as uncertain, the good ground is not a negative for a horse of her class. The one-class step up (ClassMv:↑1) is the only mild concern, but her SR of 133 — 13 points clear of the next best — makes that manageable.
Each-way alternative: Green Empress.
Main danger: Green Empress — Green Empress (SR 120, 11/4) has a live form line of 221, is ridden by Colin Keane (16% career strike rate), holds Course:W0P2 at the Curragh, and at a much bigger price represents clear second-best ability in the field — if Sun Goddess has any doubts on the going or from the class step up, she is the one to capitalise.
⚖Case against4▾
Green Empress (SR 120, 11/4) is only 13 points behind on SR, ran just 3 races ago, is course-placed W0P2 at the Curragh, and is with in-form JP O'Brien/Colin Keane — a live danger that market respect…
ClassMv:↑1 into a Group 1 as a two-year-old over seven furlongs is a genuine jump; her three straight wins came at a lower classification and the form has not yet been tested at this level.
GoingFit marked uncertain: if ground is softer than good after recent rain, Sun Goddess's suitability is unconfirmed and Green Empress or Alpha could have a ground advantage.
MarkMv:= (flat mark movement) despite the market firming 14% suggests official assessors are not fully buying the SR; the rating of 133 may be flattered by weak opposition in her winning sequence.