Third last time out, and a winner three starts back, Back In Favour arrives with distance experience and scope to go close on her rating of 86 — the chief concern is whether 45 days off has left her short of peak sharpness.
Unexposed on debut, Going On heads to the track as a complete unknown, carrying 156 lb, and with no public form to assess he remains open to any level of improvement.
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
100SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 100 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Cape Warrior has been a model of consistency, finishing second in each of his last two starts, and our rating has him ranked top of this six-runner field; the main concern is a 149-day absence which leaves his fitness on trust.
Form last 622-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
107SR101RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 107 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Unraced and therefore completely unexposed, Lady Scarphia steps into the unknown here carrying 149 lb, but with no form to assess she remains an open proposition capable of anything on debut.
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
102SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 102 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Lightly raced but tuned up nicely with a run 19 days ago, Arc Kunoichi has experience over today's trip and arrives fit and competitive on 147 lb, with a rating of 96 making her a genuine threat despite being yet to score in recent starts.
Form last 65
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
88SR96RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 88 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Unraced and therefore completely unexposed, Roohu makes her debut carrying 147 lb and appeals as a filly with plenty of improvement potentially ahead of her.
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
93SR—RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 93 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Cape Warrior owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (59) and market confidence (93). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
6/4Micky HammondSean Bowen
72%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Lady Scarphia
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
4/1 · Micky Hammond✓ Value Signal
Roohu
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
12/1 · Jessica Bedi◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Cape Warrior (SR 107, 6/4) is the highest-rated runner in the field and carries the yard's #1 jockey booking in Sean Bowen (24% career strike rate from 2,344 runners) — a significant upgrade signal when Micky Hammond also fields Lady Scarphia with a lesser booking (Quinlan, 15%). The market has steamed 16% into Cape Warrior, confirming money is following the Bowen booking. Form reading 22- shows two placed efforts in bumpers, giving competitive experience over debutants and lightly-raced rivals. Crucially, Cape Warrior carries 11-0 versus Going On's 11-2, a 2lb weight edge over the rival with the most dramatic market move (Mkt:in29%), and the SR gap of 7 points (107 vs 100) further reinforces the ability advantage.
Each-way alternative: Lady Scarphia.
Main danger: Going On — Going On (SR 100, 2/1) has steamed 29% in the market and carries Brian Hughes (19% career SR from 942 rides), suggesting Patrick Neville's yard has this fit and ready on debut — bumper debutants with strong market support regularly outrun their price.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Micky Hammond's stable strike rate is just 10% from 621 runners — significantly below the field average — undermining the value of any booking signal from this yard.
Cape Warrior's form reads '22-' meaning its last run was a non-completion (dash), raising a real question about soundness or jumping ability heading into today's contest.
Going On has steamed 29% into the market versus Cape Warrior's 16% move, suggesting sharper, more confident money is landing on the rival despite Cape Warrior being the shorter price.
At 6/4, Cape Warrior is skinny given it runs for a 10% trainer, has an unresolved last-run blank, and faces a rival (Going On) with the stronger market support on the day.