Beaten in her last two starts and ranked tenth of twelve on our figures, Ashariba is hard to fancy here, though she has run over today's distance and going before and comes into this fresh enough at 27 days since her last outing.
Form last 619-270
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
69SR91RPR95OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Fairy Glen has won three of her last five starts, including back-to-back victories two and three runs back, but a fifth last time out and 118 days off the track temper enthusiasm; she has run over today's trip and going and carries 130 lb from stall two.
Form last 621-115
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
118SR98RPR112OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 118 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in her last five starts, with finishes no better than fifth in her four most recent outings, Miss Wong faces a stiff ask here; 74 days off the track adds a fitness query, and being ranked 11 of 12 on our figures makes her hard to fancy, despite having run over today's trip before.
Form last 628-765
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
54SR83RPR83OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 54 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 100/1.
Morrophore brings a strong recent profile — a winner two starts back and two starts before that, with a trainer firing at 29% in the last fortnight — but her latest run was unplaced and she heads here off 130 lb having run over today's trip before.
Form last 6141-10
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
107SR101RPR105OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 107 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Third three starts back and a winner on two occasions in her last five, Naga has distance and going experience in her favour and is trained by a yard firing at 29%, though 60 days off and a sixth last time out temper enthusiasm at 130 lb from stall seven.
Form last 61-1346
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
81SR94RPR95OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 81 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Orionis showed she can win in recent starts, and a third two starts back suggests some consistency, but a sixth last time out after 46 days off raises fitness questions; she has run over today's trip and going, and a 30% trainer strike-rate offers encouragement.
Form last 63-1736
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
82SR97RPR96OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 82 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Consistent and in-form connections make Rhapsody hard to oppose: second in each of her last two starts and a winner three starts further back, she has experience of today's trip and going, and a trainer firing at 30% over the past fortnight is a significant plus.
Form last 613-422
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
109SR105RPR102OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 109 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Third last time out keeps Sky Safari firmly in the mix, and a winner three starts back underlines her class at this level; drawn in stall five carrying 130 lb, the fitness query after 82 days off is the one thing to weigh up.
Form last 61-2183
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
102SR100RPR106OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 102 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Capichera arrives here in solid recent form — third last time out, and a winner three starts back — with experience over today's trip and going working in her favour; the main risk is whether her rating of 102 proves a pound or two too stiff at the weights.
Form last 6-32133
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
106SR98RPR102OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 106 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in her last five starts, Della Pace has struggled to convert — unplaced last time out and fourth two starts back — though a third three starts back offers a crumb of encouragement, and she has distance and going experience to draw on from stall one at 125 lb.
Form last 6-24340
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
70SR92RPR93OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 70 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Seet won two of her last four starts, including a victory two runs back, but she has not raced in 89 days and was beaten into seventh last time out, so fitness after the break is the key question, even with the trainer firing at 29%.
Form last 65117
★AI Rating★★★★☆
103SR98RPR96OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Favourable weight of 8-13 gives a real edge in this handicap.
She Commands has won three of her last five starts, including a win last time out, and has run over today's trip, but our rating of 83 ranks her last of twelve here and she faces a stiff task conceding experience to stronger rivals from stall 12.
Form last 651-101
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
73SR83RPR91OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 73 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Fairy Glen owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (66) and market confidence (87). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
11/4Simon & Ed CrisfordCallum Rodriguez
78%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Morrophore
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
17/2 · John & Thady Gosden✓ Value Signal
Ashariba
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
33/1 · David Menuisier◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Fairy Glen (SR 118, 9/4) is the clear class leader in this field by a significant margin — 9 SR points clear of the next-best Rhapsody (SR 109) and 15 clear of Capichera (SR 106). The Crisford yard runs at a 20% strike rate with 1,123 career runners, and Callum Rodriguez at 20% is one of the strongest jockey-trainer combinations in the field. The 7% drift from the market is the one note of caution, but in a race where no rival comes close on the SR scale and the form string 21-115 shows consistent placing and recent winning form, this drift is likely no more than market noise from a competitive-looking price for listed class. The weight parity across the field (9-4 for the older runners, 8-13 for the three-year-olds, giving Fairy Glen no penalty disadvantage) removes the one structural argument against her.
Each-way alternative: Rhapsody.
Main danger: Rhapsody — Rhapsody (SR 109, 3/1) has steamed in 19% in the market, holds course form (W1P1 at Yarmouth), is trained by the powerful Haggas yard running at 23%, and Tom Marquand — a 16% career striker — is a significant booking; the DistFit:- flag is the only structural concern and at this price the market clearly believes the trip will be handled.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Fairy Glen drifted 7% in the market despite being the clear SR leader — bookmakers and informed money are fading her, suggesting a specific race-day concern (fitness, going, stable confidence).
Rhapsody is 19% into the market (MarkMv +19) at 3/1 and holds a Course:W1P1 record at Yarmouth — sharper market move and proven course form is a material threat the primary analyst downplays.
No Days Since Last Run figure listed for Fairy Glen, which may indicate an unusually long absence or data gap; combined with the market drift, stable confidence in her readiness is questionable.
Three-year-olds Seet and Capichera receive a 5lb weight allowance vs Fairy Glen's 9-4, and Seet's form 5117 shows rapid improvement — that pull in the weights could neutralise the SR class edge.