Lariat has been pulled up in two of his last three and is winless in recent starts, with ninths further back, though he has run over today's trip and going and is back quickly after 13 days. Carrying 145 lb off 77, he sits 16th of 20 on our rating of 83.
Form last 699-PP0
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
55SR83RPR77OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 55 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Arctic Piper has been out of sorts, unplaced last time, a ninth two starts back, and she fell and was pulled up in the two runs before that, though she has run over today's trip and going. Our rating of 92 sits above her official 87, but 155 lb is a hefty burden for a winless mare.
Form last 68P-F90
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
52SR92RPR87OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 52 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Trixaboutmaisie is winless in her last five, with a seventh and an eighth among her finishes and unplaced last time out, and she returns after 71 days off. Carrying 149 lb off an official rating of 81, she looks outclassed, and our figures put her among the lowest-rated in the field.
Form last 6870-70
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
69SR75RPR81OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked second of 20 by our rating of 101, Jonny Carrol was fourth last time out and has run over today's trip, while he carries 168 lb and has a chance to figure; the risk is a 56-day absence and a winless last five starts.
Form last 63P-784
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
67SR101RPR100OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 67 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.
Free Flow has run over today's trip and on this going, and a break of 21 days suggests he should arrive fresh, though he is yet to win in his last five starts. Our top-rated runner at 104 against an official 96, he looks the one to beat despite carrying 164 lb.
Form last 690-640
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
78SR104RPR96OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 78 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Le Roi Arthur is unplaced last time out and fell two starts back, yet he was third four starts ago and is yet to win in his last five. Our rating of 97 sits above his official 94, but 162 lb and a 42-day break temper the case.
Form last 6439-F0
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
71SR97RPR94OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 71 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Minority Interest has just the one win in his last five starts, five runs back, and he's been unplaced last time out after a fifth two starts ago, so form is on the slide. He has run over today's trip and going, but 145 days off and 162 lb temper enthusiasm.
Form last 61805-0
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
76SR93RPR94OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 76 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Bold Reflection was eighth last time out after a fourth two starts back, and she returns from 71 days off having run over today's trip before, while a yard going 0/22 and 161 lb on a mark of 93 hold her back, though our rating of 94 is a fair level.
Form last 6/P-048
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
64SR94RPR93OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 64 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.
Lady Felicia has been consistent without troubling the judge, finishing fourth last time out, a fifth two starts back and a fourth three starts back, and she is yet to win in that spell. A 42-day break and 161 lb are hurdles, though our rating of 90 sits just below her official 93.
Form last 6454
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
73SR90RPR93OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 73 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Wildhorserider has run over today's trip and going, but he is winless in his last four, finishing sixth last time out, and returns after 183 days off. Carrying 161 lb off 93, he looks held on our rating of 90, which ranks him 11th of 20.
Form last 64/006-
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
72SR90RPR93OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 72 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 12/1.
Comanche Moon has been fading, with a ninth and a seventh behind an unplaced run last time out, and he returns after 139 days off. He has run on today's going and carries 158 lb off a mark of 90, which keeps him in midfield on our rating.
Form last 6/479-0
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
77SR90RPR90OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 77 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Without a win in his last five, Allroadsleadtorome has finished a ninth last time out and a ninth two starts back, and returns after 90 days off. He has run over today's trip and our rating of 90 is close to his official 89, but the stable is 0/22 lately.
Form last 65-5799
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
65SR90RPR89OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 65 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.
Hidalgo Des Mottes has twice finished second in his last five starts, a second two starts back among them, but he was only ninth last time and returns after 91 days off. He has run over today's trip and carries 156 lb off an official 88, so he looks a midfield sort.
Form last 625-829
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
80SR89RPR88OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 80 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Midnight Musical has been out of the frame lately, but our rating of 99 ranks her third of 20 and she has run on today's going before, while a 37-day break should leave her fresh. The risk is her form, with a ninth last time out and yet to win in her last five, and she carries 156 lb.
Form last 6-58509
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
61SR99RPR88OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 61 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.
Thurman is hard to fancy, having finished eighth, ninth and seventh before being pulled up four starts back, and she has been off for 56 days. She has run over today's trip and our figures rank her 19th of 20, with 155 lb to carry off 87.
Form last 6P/79-8
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
50SR79RPR87OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 50 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Stumblin In fell last time out and is without a win in her last five starts, with a sixth four starts back her best recent finish, and she returns after 71 days off. She has run over today's trip and our rating of 87 is a shade above her 85 mark, but 153 lb is a lot to carry.
Form last 60-600F
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
54SR87RPR85OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 54 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
Our rating of 98 puts Ardera Gun fourth of 20 and well clear of his official 84, while he has run on today's going and returns after 35 days carrying 152 lb. The risk is obvious, though: he unseated last time and was pulled up the run before.
Form last 6007P-U
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
76SR98RPR84OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 76 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Sunrise Strider is winless in his last five, with a sixth two starts back the best of a run of unplaced efforts, and he returns after 263 days off. He has run over today's trip and runs off 83, but 151 lb is a lot to carry, and our figures rank him 18th of 20.
Form last 690060-
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
69SR81RPR83OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Silin Alainn is hard to fancy, unplaced in her last two and without a win in her last five, with an eighth, an eighth and a seventh before that, and the yard is cold at 1/48 in the last 14 days. She has run over today's trip, but 149 lb off 81 and a 41-day break don't help, and our rating of 78 ranks her last of 20.
Form last 67880/0
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
74SR78RPR81OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 74 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
The Ducks Walk is winless in his last five, with an unplaced effort last time out and a sixth, fourth and seventh before that, so he is hard to fancy off 149 lb. He has run over today's trip and returns after 35 days, but our rating of 83 ranks him 17th of 20.
Form last 60-7460
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
69SR83RPR81OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Rose Mountain is hard to fancy, winless in her last five starts with a ninth two starts back and a pulled up three runs ago, and she returns after 42 days carrying 148 lb off an official rating of 80. Our figures rate her an outsider, with little in the form to argue otherwise.
Form last 600/P90
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
47SR76RPR80OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 47 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.
Talas Kera was fourth last time out and has been consistent without a win in her last five starts, with a fourth three starts back too, and she has run over today's trip and going. A 50-day layoff and 145 lb under an official 77 temper the appeal, though our rating of 90 hints at some latent promise.
Form last 6-75404
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
80SR90RPR77OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Glory Sky is winless in her last four, finishing a fifth last time out after an eighth, a seventh and another seventh, so she is hard to fancy at 144 lb off a mark of 76. On the plus side, she has run over today's trip and is fresh from a run just 14 days ago.
Form last 6/778-5
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
54SR72RPR76OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 54 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Ardera Gun owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (42) and market confidence (82). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
4/1Eoin DoyleDonagh Meyler
65%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Comanche Moon
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
9/2 · C Byrnes✓ Value Signal
Midnight Musical
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
25/1 · A. McCann◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Ardera Gun (SR:76, 9/1, Wgt:10-12) carries a favourable weight relative to higher-rated rivals and has steamed in by 35% in the market — the strongest inbound move in this 23-runner field and a clear signal that connections and informed money are confident. Jockey Donagh Meyler posts a 12% career strike rate from 1,048 rides, the best jockey booking among contenders, and the DistFit:? tag means the trip is untested rather than proven negative. The trainer Eoin Doyle's 5% strike rate is modest, but the 35% market steam overrides that concern — this horse is being backed with purpose. The form string 007P-U is messy but the U (unseated) dismisses the last run as a non-event, and the headgear change (tb — tongue-tie and blinkers) applied for today suggests connections are seeking a sharper response.
Each-way alternative: Comanche Moon.
Main danger: Comanche Moon — Comanche Moon (SR:77, 13/2, Wgt:11-4) is the joint highest SR among horses with no proven negative at today's trip, trainer C Byrnes posts a 12% strike rate and jockey Philip Byrnes 11%, and at 13/2 it remains reasonably priced if the market drift of 15% is simply position-adjustment rather than genuine opposition from the yard.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Form string 007P-U shows zero top-3 finishes across all recorded starts — not a single placed effort to suggest this horse can compete competitively in a 23-runner field.
Trainer Eoin Doyle at just 5% strike rate is a significant negative; even with market support, a handler who wins 1-in-20 rarely delivers on gambled-up runners in big-field handicaps.
Le Roi Arthur steamed in 43% — a stronger inbound move than Ardera Gun's 35% — yet received no mention, suggesting the market signal around Ardera Gun may not be as uniquely compelling as presented.
DistFit:? means no confirmed evidence the horse stays or handles this trip; combined with the 'tb' headgear first-time blinkers combination in a 23-runner field, the unpredictability risk is concentr…