Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mucklemeg Mares Flat Race (Listed) · 2m100y
SR 63 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
Favourable weight of 11-7 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 70 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 113 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 81 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 112 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 114 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 72 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 80 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 74 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 80/1.
SR 93 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 104 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 68 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Bonnie Loch | 50/1 open 67.00 | 50/1 open 67.00 | 50/1 open 67.00 | 50/1 open 67.00 | 33/1 open 67.00 | 50/1 | 50/1 Bet365 |
| 2 Long'way | 5/2 open 3.25 | 5/2 open 3.75 | 5/2 | 5/2 | 5/2 | 5/2 | 5/2 Bet365 |
| 3 Missouri Snow | 40/1 open 26.00 | 50/1 open 26.00 | 40/1 open 26.00 | 40/1 open 26.00 | 40/1 open 26.00 | 40/1 | 50/1 Paddy Power |
| 4 Thelittleballerina | 9/2 | 4/1 open 5.50 | 9/2 | 9/2 | 4/1 open 5.50 | 4/1 open 5.50 | 9/2 Bet365 |
| 5 Village Dream | 16/1 | 16/1 | 16/1 | 16/1 | 16/1 | 16/1 | 16/1 Bet365 |
| 6 Alicious | 10/1 open 9.50 | 11/1 open 9.00 | 11/1 open 9.00 | 11/1 open 9.00 | 11/1 open 9.00 | 11/1 open 10.00 | 11/1 Paddy Power |
| 7 Elegantemente | 4/1 | 4/1 open 4.33 | 4/1 open 4.50 | 4/1 open 4.50 | 4/1 open 4.50 | 4/1 open 5.50 | 4/1 Bet365 |
| 8 False Dawn | 50/1 open 34.00 | 66/1 open 34.00 | 50/1 open 34.00 | 50/1 open 34.00 | 33/1 | 50/1 | 66/1 Paddy Power |
| 9 Hutton Star | 22/1 open 15.00 | 25/1 open 15.00 | 22/1 open 15.00 | 22/1 open 15.00 | 22/1 open 15.00 | 22/1 | 25/1 Paddy Power |
| 10 Lake Pippaway | 80/1 open 67.00 | 80/1 open 67.00 | 80/1 open 67.00 | 80/1 open 67.00 | 80/1 open 67.00 | 80/1 | 80/1 Bet365 |
| 11 Lola O C | 5/1 open 8.00 | 5/1 open 8.50 | 11/2 open 7.50 | 11/2 open 7.50 | 5/1 open 7.50 | 11/2 open 7.00 | 11/2 Coral |
| 12 Sarahs Lawn | 6/1 open 6.50 | 6/1 open 5.50 | 6/1 open 6.00 | 6/1 open 6.00 | 5/1 | 6/1 open 8.00 | 6/1 Bet365 |
| 13 Weaponized | 25/1 open 21.00 | 33/1 open 17.00 | 28/1 open 21.00 | 28/1 open 21.00 | 25/1 open 19.00 | 28/1 open 21.00 | 33/1 Paddy Power |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Thelittleballerina owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (63) and market confidence (79). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalFavourable weight of 11-7 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 114 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 113 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 93 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 104 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 112 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 81 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Long'way (SR 107, 5/2) is the standout on multiple converging signals. As the Mullins yard's clear #1 runner — booked for stable jockey Mr P W Mullins who strikes at 33% career rate versus the weaker bookings on Village Dream and Alicious — and trained by the dominant yard in Irish NH racing (26% strike rate over 2,927 runners), the structural case is strong. The form figure of '1' on debut bumper form is typical for a Mullins-prepared mare being aimed at a target like this Listed mares' bumper, and the 5/2 market price reflects genuine confidence without any drift signal. While all runners share DistFit:? and GoingFit:? given the nature of bumpers (no prior race data), Thelittleballerina (SR 113, 7/2) is marginally superior on SR but the jockey booking disparity is decisive — Mr J Dunne strikes at only 6% versus Mullins's son at 33%, and the 123-day absence adds further concern. Each-way alternative: Thelittleballerina. Main danger: Thelittleballerina — Thelittleballerina holds the highest SR in the shortlist at 113, has a race-ready recent run pattern (31-1 form with a last-time-out win), and has been steamed 21% in the market despite the 123-day break, suggesting connections believe she retains peak form.