Class 5 16 May 2026

Last Saturday Hobgoblin Handicap Hurdle

Hobgoblin Handicap Hurdle · 1m7f168y

748-Hr decs

Every runner. Every signal. One decision.

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Voting open
  • 7 declared
  • 0 picked
AI rates Genbu Medium Join free to vote Updated 5 days, 12 hours ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
2
Zafaan
Age 6 · 11-12
/2325-
82
106
6
11-12
10/1 6/1 10/1
Dual Flat winner (1m/1m2f); placed in five of his seven races over hurdles, latest over C&D in October (good); ran with hood and cheekpieces that day but has neither this time; back after 180-day break; interesting with Sean Bowen booked.

SR 82 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

3
Ask A Sainte
Age 6 · 11-10
/9945-
80
109
6
11-10
7/1 12/1 13/2
Best run for David Brace when fourth in a Wincanton maiden hurdle in December (1m7f, soft); that form is sound; an interesting contender on his handicap/stable debut.

SR 80 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

5
Merry Shuil
Age 8 · 11-6
/9725-
83
108
8
11-6
20/1 16/1 18/1
Best run over hurdles when runner-up in a mares' handicap at Catterick in February (1m7f, soft); lesser effort over 2m3f on same track last time (good to soft); others stronger.

SR 83 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Modern Style
Age 4 · 11-1
3P011-
88
105
4
11-1
2/1 7/4 2/1
On a hat-trick having won novice handicaps at Exeter (2m, good) and Taunton (2m3f, good) last month; up 14lb (7lb for last win) but should be competitive again.

SR 88 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Collanisi
Age 6 · 11-0
/9954-
78
102
6
11-0
5/1 6/1 9/2
Third in a Ffos Las bumper on debut in November 2024 (2m, soft); not progressed as a hurdler, but quite interesting on his handicap debut.

SR 78 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

8
Castle Quarter
Age 10 · 10-11
4P3P6-
81
109
10
10-11
14/1 16/1 14/1
AW Flat winner; only win in 14 runs over hurdles was off this mark over C&D last May (good) when wearing a hood for the first time (as well as cheekpieces); hasn't done quite as well since, with today's combination of headgear the last twice.

SR 81 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Genbu
Age 4 · 10-2
6680-3
94
109
4
10-2
7/2 11/1 10/3
Wetherby juvenile winner for Sam England last October (2m, good; first-time tongue-tie); some fair form since, and an interesting contender after his 2l-third to Spartan Times (who is now 4lb worse off) in a C&D handicap two weeks ago.

SR 94 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
2 Zafaan 10/1 open 7.00 10/1 open 7.00 10/1 open 7.00 10/1 open 7.00 11/1 open 7.00 11/1 Betfred
3 Ask A Sainte 7/1 open 13.00 13/2 open 13.00 13/2 open 13.00 13/2 open 13.00 13/2 open 13.00 7/1 Bet365
5 Merry Shuil 20/1 open 17.00 18/1 open 17.00 18/1 open 17.00 18/1 open 17.00 18/1 open 17.00 20/1 Bet365
6 Modern Style 2/1 9/4 open 2.88 9/4 open 2.88 9/4 open 2.88 9/4 open 2.75 9/4 Coral
7 Collanisi 5/1 open 7.00 9/2 open 7.00 9/2 open 7.00 9/2 open 7.00 5/1 open 7.00 5/1 Bet365
8 Castle Quarter 14/1 open 19.00 14/1 open 19.00 14/1 open 19.00 14/1 open 19.00 14/1 open 17.00 14/1 Bet365
9 Genbu 7/2 open 13.00 7/2 open 13.00 7/2 open 13.00 7/2 open 12.00 10/3 open 13.00 7/2 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Modern Style

Speculative

Modern Style owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (49) and market confidence (91). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

2/1 Nigel Hawke James Best
70% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Genbu

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

7/2 · Sarah-Jayne Davies
✓ Value Signal

Merry Shuil

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

20/1 · Jennie Candlish
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
49 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +18.6 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
91 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +20.0 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
43 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.6 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
39 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.9 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
47 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.8 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
59 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.7 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 6. Modern Style
57.8 2/1
2 9. Genbu
55.1 7/2
3 7. Collanisi
50.5 5/1
4 2. Zafaan
50.1 10/1
5 3. Ask A Sainte
49.8 7/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Genbu
Medium

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

6
Age 4 · 11-1
2/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 88 🐾

SR 88 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Age 4 · 10-2
7/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 94 🐾

SR 94 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 6 · 11-0
5/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 78 🐾

SR 78 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

3
Age 6 · 11-10
7/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 80 🐾

SR 80 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

2
Age 6 · 11-12
10/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 82 🐾

SR 82 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

8
Age 10 · 10-11
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 81 🐾

SR 81 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Age 8 · 11-6
20/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 83 🐾

SR 83 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Genbu
Confidence: Medium

Genbu leads the field with SR 94 and is trading at . The Saturday Rating places it clear of the field on ability. Weight of 10-2 is manageable for a horse of this class.

Shortlist Genbu, Modern Style, Merry Shuil, Zafaan, Castle Quarter
Each-way: Modern Style Danger: Merry Shuil

🗺 The Course Class 5

1m7f168y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
7 Confirmed runners
Uttoxeter Track and setting
Class 5 Race grade