16 May 2026

Last Saturday Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden (IRE Incentive Race)

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden (IRE Incentive Race) · 5f

748-Hr decs

Every runner. Every signal. One decision.

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  • 7 declared
  • 0 picked
AI rates Matriarchal Medium Join free to vote Updated 5 days, 12 hours ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Ballinea Star
Age 2 · 9-2
5
60
75
2
9-2
11/1 8/1 10/1
Made 26,000euros as a yearling; half-sister to 12.5f/14.3f winner Gangster Granny (RPR 80); dam Group-placed 6f 2yo winner (101), out of unraced half-sister to 1m Group 1 winner Rajeem; speed for long way on debut before fading over 6f on last month's Naas debut; drops back in trip.

SR 60 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

2
Big Negotiator
Age 2 · 9-2
W J Lee 15%
P Twomey 28%
59
2
9-2
11/8 2/1 5/4
Havana Grey filly cost 30,000gns as a yearling; second foal; half-sister to Italian 7.5f 2yo Listed winner Star Of Life (RPR 95); dam maiden half-sister to winners Lord Of Love (useful 1m2f/1m4f) and Governor Of India (1m2f), out of French Oaks winner Star Of Seville; has to be respected from yard in hot form.

SR 59 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Cleodolinda
Age 2 · 9-2
59
2
9-2
13/2 8/1 5/1
Ten Sovereigns filly is sister to 2yo 5f Listed winners Usdi Atohi (RPR 94) and Asean (RPR94); dam placed 9.4f-1m4f (78), sister to Group-placed 7.4f 2yo winner Sherpa; bred to be sharp, one to consider on debut.

SR 59 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Matriarchal
Age 2 · 9-2
43
63
68
2
9-2
10/1 8/1 9/1
Sioux Nation filly has shaped with promise on both starts in 5f maidens at Dundalk and Cork but this looks a stiffer task so more needed.

SR 63 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Nevermindtherain
Age 2 · 9-2
5
55
70
2
9-2
9/4 7/4 2/1
No Nay Never half-sister to last year's 7f/1m 2yo winner Puerto Rico (inc Group 1; RPR 116); dam Group-placed 1m 2yo winner (102), sister to winners Misty For Me (7f-1m2f Group 1 inc Irish 1,000 Guineas) and Ballydoyle (1m 2yo Group 1); weak second favourite, plenty green on Cork debut last month (soft); sure to have benefited from that experience and no surprise if she played a major role here (quicker ground).

SR 55 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Pink Leela
Age 2 · 9-2
59
2
9-2
80/1 40/1 80/1
Cost 6,000euros as a yearling; half-sister to winners Rebel Town (Japanese 7f dirt 2yo) and Ratings Upgrade (Canadian 8.5f turf); dam fourth 1m2f AW in France (RPR 64), half-sister to 7.4f 2yo Listed winner Zafonical Storm; newcomer best watched.

SR 59 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

7
Warbelle
Age 2 · 9-2
59
2
9-2
10/1 7/1 10/1
No Nay Never filly a 50,000euros yearling; first foal; dam US 5.5f/6f winner (inc 2yo stakes), closely related to 6f/1m 2yo winner X J Rascal, out of unraced half-sister to 6f 2yo Group 2 winner Galeota; market best guide on debut, yard going really well.

SR 59 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Ballinea Star 11/1 open 9.00 10/1 open 9.00 10/1 open 9.00 10/1 open 9.00 10/1 open 9.00 11/1 Bet365
2 Big Negotiator 11/8 open 3.00 11/8 open 3.00 11/8 open 3.00 11/8 open 3.00 5/4 open 3.00 11/8 Bet365
3 Cleodolinda 13/2 open 9.00 5/1 open 9.00 5/1 open 9.00 5/1 open 9.00 5/1 open 9.00 13/2 Bet365
4 Matriarchal 10/1 open 9.00 9/1 open 9.00 9/1 open 9.00 9/1 open 9.00 9/1 open 9.00 10/1 Bet365
5 Nevermindtherain 9/4 open 2.75 9/4 open 2.88 9/4 open 2.88 2/1 open 2.88 9/4 open 2.88 9/4 Bet365
6 Pink Leela 80/1 open 41.00 100/1 open 41.00 100/1 open 41.00 100/1 open 41.00 100/1 open 41.00 100/1 Coral
7 Warbelle 10/1 open 8.00 10/1 open 8.50 10/1 open 8.50 10/1 open 8.50 10/1 open 8.50 10/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Big Negotiator

Speculative

Big Negotiator owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (33) and market confidence (94). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

11/8 P Twomey W J Lee
75% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Nevermindtherain

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

9/4 · A P O'Brien
✓ Value Signal

Pink Leela

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

80/1 · Simon Cavanagh
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
33 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +12.5 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
94 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +20.6 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
37 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.8 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
32 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.2 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
54 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.4 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Live signal
60 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.8 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 2. Big Negotiator
52.9 11/8
2 5. Nevermindtherain
48.5 9/4
3 3. Cleodolinda
47.9 13/2
4 4. Matriarchal
45.0 10/1
5 7. Warbelle
43.2 10/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Matriarchal
Medium

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

2
Age 2 · 9-2
11/8
★★☆☆☆ SR 59 🐾

SR 59 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Age 2 · 9-2
9/4
★★☆☆☆ SR 55 🐾

SR 55 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Age 2 · 9-2
13/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 59 🐾

SR 59 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Age 2 · 9-2
10/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 63 🐾

SR 63 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 2 · 9-2
10/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 59 🐾

SR 59 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

1
Age 2 · 9-2
11/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 60 🐾

SR 60 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Matriarchal
Confidence: Medium

Matriarchal leads the field with SR 63 and is trading at . The Saturday Rating places it clear of the field on ability. Weight of 9-2 is manageable for a horse of this class.

Shortlist Matriarchal, Ballinea Star, Big Negotiator, Cleodolinda, Pink Leela
Each-way: Ballinea Star Danger: Big Negotiator

🗺 The Course Race conditions

5f Distance to cover
Good Expected going
7 Confirmed runners
Navan Track and setting