Newton Abbot 15:30 RESULTED
Class 4 7 Sep 2026

Monday 7 September Devonport Royal Dockyard Social Club Handicap Hurdle Race

Devonport Royal Dockyard Social Club Handicap Hurdle Race · 3m2f105y

Official Result

Devonport Royal Dockyard Social Club Handicap Hurdle Race

Confirmed
  1. Winner Fairlawn Skipper (GB) Shane Fenelon · Mickey Bowen
    5/1
  2. 2/1F
  3. 7/2
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Settled
  • 7 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 2 weeks ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Jager Time silks
Jager Time
Age 7 · 12-0
1-4321
109
102
99
7
12-0
5/2 31/19 5/2
Jager Time arrives on the back of a win last time out, and his recent sequence shows two wins in his last five starts, underlining consistent competitiveness; carrying 168 lb after a 50-day break is the chief concern, though he has experience of today's trip and going.
AI verdict

SR 102 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Fairlawn Skipper silks
Fairlawn Skipper
Age 6 · 11-13
4-901U
108
86
99
6
11-13
13/2 6/1 11/2
Bounced back to win two starts back before unseating last time, Fairlawn Skipper has experience of today's going and returns quickly on seven days' rest with a trainer firing at 26% over the last fortnight — that stable form makes him hard to oppose despite the hefty 167 lb burden.
AI verdict

SR 86 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Masterdream silks
Masterdream
Age 9 · 11-6
133-P3
101
72
99
9
11-6
14/1 17/2 11/1
Masterdream arrives on the back of a third last time out and has run over today's trip and going, giving him a solid platform at 160 lb, though the pulled up effort two starts back is the one rival backers will point to as the main concern.
AI verdict

SR 72 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
My Girl Katie silks
My Girl Katie
Age 9 · 11-1
13-111
96
101
88
9
11-1
7/4 2/1 31/19
Three wins on the bounce reads brilliantly, but My Girl Katie carries a hefty 155 lb and our rating of 88 leaves her trailing the principals in this field; she has run over today's trip and going before, which at least removes any obvious questions about conditions.
AI verdict

SR 101 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Bashful Boy silks
Bashful Boy
Age 10 · 10-8
P/0-38
89
84
99
10
10-8
14/1 18/1 11/1
Rated highest of the seven runners here and has run on today's going before, Bashful Boy shaped with clear promise when third two starts back, giving reason to think he can go close again; yet to score in recent starts and that pulled-up effort four runs ago remains the chief concern.
AI verdict

SR 84 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Henry Box Brown silks
Henry Box Brown
Age 9 · 10-3
46-U61
84
76
78
9
10-3
9/1 13/2 9/1
Ranked bottom of the field on our figures and carrying 143 lb after a 53-day absence, Henry Box Brown is hard to fancy despite winning last time out; he has experience of today's going, but his overall recent form — two sixths, an unseated, and a fourth in his last five starts — makes a case against him.
AI verdict

SR 76 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Alberts Bay silks
Alberts Bay
Age 9 · 10-2
37/363
83
81
84
9
10-2
7/1 FCST 6/1
Winless in his last five starts and ranked sixth of seven on our figures, Alberts Bay is hard to fancy on ratings alone, though he has run over today's trip and going before and returns on a sharp 11-day turnaround carrying 142 lb.
AI verdict

SR 81 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Jager Time 5/2 open 3.25 5/2 open 2.63 11/4 open 2.87 11/4 open 2.87 11/4 open 2.88 11/4 open 2.75 11/4 Coral
2 Fairlawn Skipper 13/2 open 7.00 6/1 11/2 open 7.00 11/2 open 7.00 6/1 6/1 13/2 Bet365
3 Masterdream 14/1 open 9.50 16/1 open 11.00 14/1 open 10.00 14/1 open 10.00 11/1 open 10.00 16/1 open 11.00 16/1 Paddy Power
4 My Girl Katie 7/4 open 3.50 15/8 open 3.00 7/4 open 3.25 7/4 open 3.25 15/8 open 3.25 13/8 open 3.00 15/8 Paddy Power
5 Bashful Boy 14/1 open 19.00 12/1 open 26.00 12/1 open 23.00 12/1 open 23.00 12/1 open 23.00 11/1 open 19.00 14/1 Bet365
6 Henry Box Brown 9/1 open 7.50 9/1 open 8.50 9/1 open 8.00 9/1 open 8.00 9/1 open 8.00 9/1 open 8.50 9/1 Bet365
7 Alberts Bay 7/1 open 7.00 13/2 open 8.00 6/1 open 7.50 6/1 open 7.50 13/2 13/2 open 8.00 7/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Jager Time

Speculative

Jager Time owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (57) and market confidence (88). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

5/2 Fergal O'Brien Fern O'Brien(5)
69% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

My Girl Katie

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

7/4 · Grace Harris
✓ Value Signal

Bashful Boy

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

14/1 · David Pipe
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

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Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
57 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +21.5 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
88 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +19.5 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Speculative
45 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.4 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
43 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.3 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
55 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.5 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
58 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.6 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 1. Jager Time
59.2 5/2
2 4. My Girl Katie
57.2 7/4
3 2. Fairlawn Skipper
53.3 13/2
4 7. Alberts Bay
49.9 7/1
5 5. Bashful Boy
49.3 14/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
My Girl Katie
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

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The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

4
Age 9 · 11-1
7/4
★★★☆☆ SR 101 🐾

SR 101 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

1
Age 7 · 12-0
5/2
★★★☆☆ SR 102 🐾

SR 102 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 6 · 11-13
13/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 86 🐾

SR 86 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 9 · 10-2
7/1
★★★☆☆ SR 81 🐾

SR 81 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Age 9 · 10-3
9/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 76 🐾

SR 76 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Age 9 · 11-6
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 72 🐾

SR 72 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Age 10 · 10-8
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 84 🐾

SR 84 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
My Girl Katie
Confidence: Speculative

My Girl Katie (SR 101, 2/1) arrives on a devastating recent run of 1-1-1 — three consecutive wins — and crucially owns the strongest course record in the field (W4P6 at Newton Abbot), confirming she is a proven specialist here. She is DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ for today's conditions, meaning every key variable checks out. The market has shortened 8% to 2/1, showing clear informed confidence. Although stepping up a class (ClassMv:↑1) and carrying a 4lb higher mark than her last win, her 8lb weight advantage over top-weight Jager Time (12-0 vs 11-1) is a material equaliser in a 3m2f hurdle on good ground, and her SR of 101 is essentially level with Jager Time's 102 on far more favourable terms. Each-way alternative: Jager Time. Main danger: Jager Time — Jager Time (SR 102, 9/4) holds the highest SR in the field and a W1P2 course record at Newton Abbot, and while the 7% market drift and +6lb mark rise are concerns, a 7-year-old at peak age with form 1-4321 retains enough class to win if My Girl Katie finds the class rise too much.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Jager Time (9/4, market only out 7%) is trained by Fergal O'Brien whose stable runs at 13% and carries top weight suggesting handicapper respects it most — the market drift is mild versus My Girl Kat…
  • My Girl Katie is a 9-year-old mare stepping up ClassMv:↑1 on a MarkMv:+4 — her three wins came at a lower class ceiling and this higher mark at 3m2f hurdle on good ground represents a clear ceiling t…
  • Jockey Alix Balfe (7lb claimer) returns only 6% strike rate from 84 rides — at 2/1 in a competitive handicap, a 7lb claimer with limited big-race experience at this trip is a concrete execution risk…
  • My Girl Katie ran just 11 days ago — for a 9-year-old mare tackling 3m2f on good ground (a stamina test), the quick turnaround raises recovery and freshness doubts particularly if her recent wins wer…
Shortlist My Girl Katie, Jager Time, Bashful Boy
Each-way: Jager Time Danger: Jager Time

🗺 The Course Class 4

3m2f105y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
7 Confirmed runners
Newton Abbot Track and setting
Class 4 Race grade