Castleheath shapes as the one to beat on our ratings, and his recent second reads well, while he has run over today's trip and going before; winless in his last four starts, but 168 lb is stiff and connections will need a clear run to get the best from him.
Form last 6/450-2
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
107SR120RPR119OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 107 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Scriabin won two starts back and was second three starts back, and he has run over this trip and going before, and his 113 rating marks him as a leading threat; the question is whether he can bounce back from an eighth last time out.
Form last 63-4218
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
111SR113RPR110OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 111 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Nobotheratall landed a win three starts back and filled the runner-up spot two starts back, and has run over this trip and going before; the concern is a 51-day absence under 157 lb.
Form last 679-124
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
107SR112RPR108OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 107 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Try Them arrives in fair recent nick — a winner last time and second two starts back — but carrying 156 lb, our rating ranks him seventh of eight runners, making him hard to fancy despite the distance and going experience.
Form last 655-021
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
107SR106RPR109OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 107 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Inappropriate shaped with promise when second two starts back, has run over today's trip and going, and at 112 on our rating ranks as a leading threat in this field; the risk is that he has been winless in his last five starts.
Form last 65952-6
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
107SR112RPR106OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 107 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in her last five starts, Pure Gold has placed third two runs back but otherwise struggled to convert consistency into results; she has run over today's trip and going before, and 152 lb is a stiff ask for a mare yet to land a race in recent starts.
Form last 65-4434
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
102SR108RPR103OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 102 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Yet to win in her last five starts, Just Dottie nonetheless showed a third two runs back to suggest she retains ability, and she has run over today's trip and going before; a burden of 149 lb is the concern.
Form last 646-537
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
99SR107RPR100OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 99 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last three starts, with finishes of seventh, ninth and eighth, Elemental Eye has little recent form to recommend him, and our figures rank him last of the eight runners here; his experience over today's trip and a quick turnaround eight days ago are modest consolations at best.
Form last 6798-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
105SR103RPR96OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 105 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Nobotheratall owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (59) and market confidence (66). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
15/2Tristan DavidsonDerek Fox
63%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Castleheath
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
5/2 · Ciaran Murphy✓ Value Signal
Scriabin
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
17/2 · Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Scriabin (SR:111, 15/2) is the highest-rated horse in the field and carries a manageable 11-5, giving it a meaningful SR edge over the cluster of SR:107 rivals. The 20% market shortening is a strong positive signal in a field where several others are drifting sharply. Crucially, GoingFit:+ confirms it handles good ground, DistFit:~ shows a workable distance record, and a drop of two class tiers (ClassMv:↓2) means it meets this field from a position of class superiority — the form figure '8' at the end of the string is the most recent but the overall sequence 3-4218 shows consistent competitiveness and a recent win. Course:W1P2 at Perth adds a specialist-track edge that fewer rivals can match.
Each-way alternative: Just Dottie.
Main danger: Just Dottie — Just Dottie carries only 10-9, has Course:W1P3 at Perth making it a genuine course specialist, DistFit:+ confirms it handles this trip, and the 34% market shortening is the strongest steaming signal in the entire field — the money is moving decisively on this horse.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Trainer Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore strike rate of just 5% from 111 runners is notably weak, and jockey Patrick Wadge hits only 11% from 35 rides — a low-calibre booking for a horse with SR s…
Most recent form figure is '8' — a last-place finish — and that is the horse's freshest piece of form going into today; the single win in the 3-4218 string may be the run that flatters the sequence.
At 15/2 Scriabin is joint-third in the market despite being top-rated; market leader Castleheath (3/1) has a high-profile jockey booking in Sean Bowen and carries the top weight, suggesting layers do…
HG flag 't' (tongue tie) indicates a known wind/jumping issue that has required equipment intervention, adding uncertainty over a return to form after the recent last-place run.
ShortlistScriabin, Just Dottie, Try Them, Nobotheratall