Bounced back to win two starts back before a fourth last time out, and Down Around has experience of today's distance and going to call on; back within a week and carrying 168 lb, he arrives fit and ready to go.
Form last 636-714
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
96SR102RPR105OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 96 suggests ability but 5/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked top of the eight on our rating, Midnight Moonshine has run over today's trip and going before and returns after a 34-day break potentially freshened up, though his heavy burden of 168 lb is the chief concern given he is yet to score in recent starts.
Form last 6-09056
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
83SR104RPR105OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 83 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 12/1.
Sauce Of Life landed a win four starts back and has experience of today's trip and conditions, with our rating of 104 putting him narrowly ahead of most rivals; the main concern is a return from 86 days off following a pulled up effort two starts back.
Form last 61P/5-5
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
85SR104RPR101OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 85 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Dalileo won back-to-back in his last five starts but has since disappointed with a seventh, and 163 lb is a stiff ask; he has run over today's trip and going, though our rating of 96 leaves him with something to find on the figures.
Form last 6-73117
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
91SR96RPR100OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 91 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in her last five starts and ranked sixth of eight here, Theirshegoes does at least bring distance and going experience to the table, and her second last time out shows she retains ability; 54 days off and a hefty 153 lb are the obstacles to overcome.
Form last 645-782
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
84SR95RPR90OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 84 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Fresh from a run 10 days ago, Le Grand Vert brings distance and going experience to the table, and a rating of 100 gives him strong claims here; the concern is his recent sequence of an eighth and sixth in his last two starts.
Form last 6412P68
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
88SR100RPR86OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 88 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last five starts and ranked seventh of eight on our figures, C'Mon So faces a stiff ask here; he hasn't troubled the judge in recent outings, though experience over today's trip and going, plus 67 days of freshening up, offer modest crumbs of comfort.
Form last 6696-64
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
91SR94RPR79OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 91 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Burgundy Man has pulled up three times in his last five starts and is winless in that spell, making him very difficult to fancy ranked last on our figures; he has run over today's trip and going before, and 23 days between runs at least suggests he arrives fresh.
Form last 66-P9PP
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
58SR89RPR78OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 58 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Down Around owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (53) and market confidence (86). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
3/1Gordon ElliottSean Bowen
65%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
C'Mon So
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
3/1 · Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore✓ Value Signal
Burgundy Man
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
16/1 · R Mike Smith◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
C'Mon So (SR:91, 7/2) carries just 10-2 — the joint-lightest weight in the field — giving it a significant 1st-8lb pull against rivals of similar or lower SR. The market has shortened 23% from opening, suggesting informed money is moving in, and at 5 years old it is the youngest runner in a field of ageing animals (average age 9-10), offering the most residual upside. DistFit:? and GoingFit:? reflect an unproven profile over trip and going rather than a negative record, and at this distance stepping up brings an open question rather than a confirmed weakness. Dalileo (SR:91, Course:W2P3, DistFit:+, GoingFit:+) is the most credible threat and shares the top SR, but the jockey's 0% strike rate from 38 rides is a serious concern and the market has drifted 62% — clear avoidance by the money.
Each-way alternative: Sauce Of Life.
Main danger: Dalileo — Dalileo holds Course:W2P3, DistFit:+, GoingFit:+ — the strongest course-and-conditions profile in the field — and if Peter Kavanagh's poor recent record is a blip rather than a pattern, those proven course credentials at SR:91 make it the most dangerous rival.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Trainer Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore strike rate is just 5% from 111 runners — one of the weakest in the field — and Derek Fox's 6% from 32 rides is similarly poor, a combined handler-rider pr…
C'Mon So has been off 67 days and its recent form reads 696-64 — no win in the last six starts and beaten in both outings since the seasonal break marker, suggesting it returns to action out of form.
DistFit:? and GoingFit:? are unknown quantities at Perth today; with September ground likely riding good-to-soft or soft, the horse has no demonstrated ability to handle the conditions or the trip.
Down Around (SR:96, 5/2) holds a 5-point SR superiority, carries 12-0 yet is trained by Gordon Elliott (15%) with Sean Bowen (23%) aboard — a far stronger trainer-jockey combination that the market m…
ShortlistC'Mon So, Dalileo, Sauce Of Life, Down Around