Newbury 14:47 RESULTED
Class 2 19 Sep 2026

Last Saturday Dubai Duty Free Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)

Dubai Duty Free Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race) · 1m2f0y

Official Result

Dubai Duty Free Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Balzac (GER) Ryan Moore · Jane Chapple-Hyam
    11/2
  2. 12/1
  3. 11/1
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Settled
  • 13 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 2 days, 9 hours ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Paddy The Squire silks
Paddy The Squire
Age 6 · 9-12
5-6320
103
86
104
6
9-12
14/1 FCST 12/1
Paddy The Squire ran a fine second two starts back and a third three starts back, has run over today's trip and going, and our ratings rank him top of this field — the main concern is a trainer who is 1/26 in the last 14 days.
AI verdict

SR 86 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Old Harrovian silks
Old Harrovian
Age 7 · 9-7
3/212-
98
75
99
7
9-7
40/1 12/1 33/1
Old Harrovian shaped with plenty of credit last time out with a second, and boasts a win two starts back alongside further placed efforts in recent starts, suggesting a consistent profile; the concern is a 519-day absence, which represents a significant fitness query on his return.
AI verdict

SR 75 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Merveilleux Lapin silks
Merveilleux Lapin
Age 4 · 9-4
0-2437
95
81
99
4
9-4
18/1 14/1 16/1
Winless in her last five starts, Merveilleux Lapin does at least bring distance and going experience to the table, and a third two starts back shows she can find the frame; however, a seventh last time out and 130 lb from stall 12 are the checks against her.
AI verdict

SR 81 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Theory of Tides silks
Theory of Tides
Age 5 · 9-2
/42-29
93
80
97
5
9-2
25/1 FCST 16/1
Theory of Tides has finished second twice in his last four starts but is yet to win, and 57 days off the track is a potential concern; he has run over today's trip and going before, and his rating of 97 offers some encouragement from stall 10 off 128 lb.
AI verdict

SR 80 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Boyfriend silks
Boyfriend
Age 5 · 9-2
-81323
93
105
101
5
9-2
9/2 7/2 4/1
Consistent and lively in recent starts, Boyfriend arrives here on the back of consecutive placed efforts and a win four starts back, carrying 128 lb from stall 6 off an official mark of 93; the chief concern is whether he can convert his placed form into victory on the day.
AI verdict

SR 105 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Balzac silks
Balzac
Age 3 · 9-1
133002
97
92
94
3
9-1
6/1 FCST 11/2
Balzac has struggled for consistency in recent starts, with just one win in his last six and a runner-up finish last time out after two unplaced efforts, and our figures rank him well down the field; draw one and experience over today's trip and going offer slim positives, but he remains hard to fancy on these ratings.
AI verdict

SR 92 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
King's Code silks
King's Code
Age 6 · 9-1
051888
92
70
94
6
9-1
40/1 33/1 28/1
King's Code has finished eighth in three consecutive starts and, ranked 12 of 13 on our figures, it is very hard to make a case for him here, despite a win four starts back offering a glimmer of past ability; he has distance and going experience, but the weight of recent evidence is firmly against him.
AI verdict

SR 70 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Mr Swivell silks
Mr Swivell
Age 5 · 8-13
704287
90
87
98
5
8-13
17/2 10/1 15/2
Winless in his last six starts, Mr Swivell does at least boast a second three starts back to suggest ability remains, and he has run over today's trip and going before; however, consecutive seventh and eighth placings since then are hard to ignore from stall 13 off 125 lb.
AI verdict

SR 87 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

9
Stem silks
Stem
Age 4 · 8-12
904103
89
99
102
4
8-12
15/2 7/1 15/2
Third last time out, and a winner three starts back, Stem arrives in good shape on 21 days' rest and has run over today's trip and going, with his rating of 102 giving him a lively chance from stall 4 off 124 lb.
AI verdict

SR 99 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

10
Gonna Fly silks
Gonna Fly
Age 3 · 8-11
-81594
93
96
95
3
8-11
13/2 7/1 13/2
Gonna Fly showed he can win in recent starts, landing a victory four starts back, but a ninth two starts back and a fourth last time out suggest inconsistency; he has run over today's trip and going, and 123 lb from stall three gives him a workable profile.
AI verdict

SR 96 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

11
Capall Rasa silks
Capall Rasa
Age 3 · 8-11
11-495
93
99
95
3
8-11
11/2 7/1 9/2
Fifth last time out and ninth two starts back are the blemishes on Capall Rasa's card, though a winner on two of his last five starts shows ability worth respecting; the 93-day break is the key unknown heading into this.
AI verdict

SR 99 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

12
Fantasy Believer silks
Fantasy Believer
Age 9 · 8-10
0-5047
87
63
94
9
8-10
50/1 22/1 50/1
Winless in his last five starts and ranked tenth of thirteen on our figures, Fantasy Believer is a hard one to fancy, with a trainer hitting just one from 41 runners in the past fortnight; experience over today's trip and going offers slim comfort.
AI verdict

SR 63 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 66/1.

13
Almekarem silks
Almekarem
Age 4 · 8-8
-17221
85
96
84
4
8-8
9/2 4/1 9/2
Ranked bottom of the field on our figures and carrying 120 lb, Almekarem faces a stiff task on paper, though he arrives in decent heart having won last time out and shown consistency — second in two of his last five starts — and he has experience over today's trip and going.
AI verdict

SR 96 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Paddy The Squire 14/1 12/1 14/1 open 13.00 14/1 open 13.00 14/1 14/1 open 13.00 14/1 Bet365
2 Old Harrovian 40/1 open 17.00 35/1 open 13.00 40/1 open 17.00 40/1 open 17.00 50/1 open 15.00 33/1 open 17.00 50/1 William Hill
3 Merveilleux Lapin 18/1 open 17.00 18/1 18/1 open 17.00 18/1 open 17.00 18/1 open 15.00 16/1 18/1 Bet365
4 Theory of Tides 25/1 open 19.00 16/1 open 19.00 25/1 open 17.00 25/1 open 17.00 22/1 open 19.00 25/1 open 17.00 25/1 Bet365
5 Boyfriend 9/2 open 5.00 9/2 open 4.50 4/1 4/1 5/1 open 4.50 5/1 open 5.00 5/1 William Hill
6 Balzac 6/1 open 6.50 11/2 6/1 open 6.50 6/1 open 6.50 13/2 open 6.50 13/2 open 6.50 13/2 William Hill
7 King's Code 40/1 28/1 open 51.00 33/1 33/1 33/1 33/1 40/1 Bet365
8 Mr Swivell 17/2 open 13.00 17/2 open 12.00 9/1 open 11.00 9/1 open 11.00 15/2 open 12.00 17/2 open 12.00 9/1 Coral
9 Stem 15/2 open 9.00 15/2 open 8.00 15/2 open 10.00 15/2 open 10.00 15/2 open 9.50 15/2 open 9.00 15/2 Bet365
10 Gonna Fly 13/2 open 9.00 13/2 open 8.00 13/2 open 9.00 13/2 open 9.00 13/2 open 9.50 13/2 open 9.00 13/2 Bet365
11 Capall Rasa 11/2 open 10.00 11/2 open 9.50 11/2 open 8.50 11/2 open 8.50 9/2 open 9.00 11/2 open 8.00 11/2 Bet365
12 Fantasy Believer 50/1 open 26.00 66/1 open 26.00 66/1 open 23.00 66/1 open 23.00 66/1 open 26.00 66/1 open 26.00 66/1 Paddy Power
13 Almekarem 9/2 9/2 open 5.00 9/2 9/2 open 5.00 5/1 open 5.50 9/2 open 5.00 5/1 William Hill

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Boyfriend

Speculative

Boyfriend owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (58) and market confidence (79). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

9/2 Richard Hannon Sean Levey
64% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Almekarem

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

9/2 · Sir Mark Prescott Bt
✓ Value Signal

Theory of Tides

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

25/1 · Jamie Osborne
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
58 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +22.2 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence High conviction
79 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +17.4 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Speculative
45 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.3 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Speculative
50 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.0 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
53 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.3 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
53 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.3 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 5. Boyfriend
56.7 9/2
2 13. Almekarem
56.6 9/2
3 9. Stem
55.8 15/2
4 10. Gonna Fly
55.3 13/2
5 6. Balzac
54.9 6/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Capall Rasa
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

5
Age 5 · 9-2
9/2
★★★☆☆ SR 105 🐾

SR 105 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

13
Age 4 · 8-8
9/2
★★★☆☆ SR 96 🐾

SR 96 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

11
Age 3 · 8-11
11/2
★★★☆☆ SR 99 🐾

SR 99 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Age 3 · 9-1
6/1
★★★☆☆ SR 92 🐾

SR 92 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

10
Age 3 · 8-11
13/2
★★★☆☆ SR 96 🐾

SR 96 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

9
Age 4 · 8-12
15/2
★★★☆☆ SR 99 🐾

SR 99 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

8
Age 5 · 8-13
17/2
★★★☆☆ SR 87 🐾

SR 87 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

1
Age 6 · 9-12
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 86 🐾

SR 86 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Age 4 · 9-4
18/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 81 🐾

SR 81 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Capall Rasa
Confidence: Speculative

Capall Rasa (SR:99, 11/2, 8-11) has steamed in 32% since opening — the most significant market move in the race by a considerable margin — and carries a featherweight relative to the field. The GoingFit:+ confirms this horse handles today's good ground, and Connor Beasley (14% SR) is a reliable partner for Bethell's yard (18% strike rate, 1076 runners). The 93-day absence is a risk, but Bethell typically has horses fit enough to run when they're sent to a Newbury Class 2 handicap, and a mark +13 above last win is offset by the lightened weight (8-11) and the fact that three-year-olds at this stage of the season carry a proven physical maturity advantage over older rivals in mile-and-a-quarter handicaps. The sustained market confidence is the decisive signal. Each-way alternative: Almekarem. Main danger: Almekarem — Almekarem (SR:96, 9/2, 8-8) carries the lightest weight in the field, has won four of his last five including a win just 8 days ago showing peak form, and Prescott's yard (19% strike rate) is among the best at placing horses precisely — ClassMv:↑2 is the only genuine concern.

Case against 4 clamped
  • 93-day absence is substantial for a 3-year-old running off a mark 13lb higher than last win — the only recent form line (Form:11-495) shows a win sequence that has since deteriorated to three consecu…
  • Boyfriend (SR:105, Course:W1P2, Stable:1) has a materially superior speed rating, fresher form (16 days), and a proven course record, yet trades shorter in real terms given the handicap weights — rep…
  • Almekarem (9/2) has an active winning sequence (-17221), raced just 8 days ago showing peak fitness, and carries a lighter 8-8 from Sir Mark Prescott's yard — a yard renowned for placing horses preci…
  • Mark rise of +13 in a Class 2 Newbury handicap off a 93-day break is a significant combined risk; light weight (8-11) helps but does not fully compensate for the combination of class hike, layoff, an…
Shortlist Capall Rasa, Almekarem, Boyfriend, Stem
Each-way: Almekarem Danger: Almekarem

🗺 The Course Class 2

1m2f0y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
13 Confirmed runners
Newbury Track and setting
Class 2 Race grade