Newcastle (AW) 19:00 RESULTED
Class 6 19 Sep 2026

Last Saturday Happy Birthday Dave Miller From Probio energy.com Handicap Stakes (Div I)

Happy Birthday Dave Miller From Probio energy.com Handicap Stakes (Div I) · 6f

Official Result

Happy Birthday Dave Miller From Probio energy.com Handicap Stakes (Div I)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Operation Gimcrack (IRE) Sean Dylan Bowen · Bryan Smart
    5/1
  2. 5/1
  3. 11/1
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Settled
  • 10 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 2 days, 9 hours ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Donald silks
Donald
Age 4 · 9-10
549421
61
68
64
4
9-10
3/1 2/1 3/1
Donald arrives in fine heart after winning last time out, and a second two starts back underlines his current consistency; he has run over today's trip and going before, and just 10 days since that success keeps him fresh.
AI verdict

SR 68 suggests ability but 5/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Too Much silks
Too Much
Age 6 · 9-9
067154
60
58
65
6
9-9
17/2 7/1 8/1
Too Much showed she retains winning form with a victory three starts back, and her experience over today's trip and going are clear positives from stall five carrying 135 lb; the concern is back-to-back modest finishes since that win.
AI verdict

SR 58 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Operation Gimcrack silks
Operation Gimcrack
Age 6 · 9-8
150623
59
59
60
6
9-8
11/2 5/1 11/2
Third last time out and second two starts back, Operation Gimcrack arrives here in decent nick after 30 days off, with experience of today's trip and going in his favour; however, carrying 134 lb from stall 9 and rated 59 officially, he faces a stiff task cracking the top tier.
AI verdict

SR 59 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Asadjumeirah silks
Asadjumeirah
Age 8 · 9-7
869161
58
64
55
8
9-7
9/2 5/2 9/2
Ranked eighth of ten on our figures and rated below his official mark, Asadjumeirah is hard to fancy at face value, though he does arrive on a winning note from 16 days ago, has run over today's trip and going, and draws stall three carrying 133 lb.
AI verdict

SR 64 suggests ability but 7/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Men of Honour silks
Men of Honour
Age 4 · 9-7
996957
58
54
62
4
9-7
11/2 17/2 4/1
Winless in his last six starts, Men of Honour faces a stiff task here, though he has run over today's trip and going before and comes back quickly enough at 17 days; a fifth two starts back offers a crumb of comfort, but consistency remains the clear concern.
AI verdict

SR 54 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Masai Angel silks
Masai Angel
Age 3 · 9-2
-43000
55
32
56
3
9-2
25/1 20/1 22/1
Winless in his last five starts and drawn eight carrying 128 lb, Masai Angel has run over today's trip and going before, though a trainer strike-rate of just 3% over the past fortnight is a notable negative against him finding improvement here.
AI verdict

SR 32 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.

7
Territorial Star silks
Territorial Star
Age 3 · 9-1
9-6507
54
40
67
3
9-1
20/1 20/1 16/1
Territorial Star catches the eye on ratings, our figure of 67 ranking her top of this field if only narrowly, and she lines up in this Class 6 contest having run just 11 days ago — a fit, lively profile with distance and going experience ticking the boxes; the main risk is her winless recent run of five starts.
AI verdict

SR 40 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.

8
Lord Abama silks
Lord Abama
Age 7 · 8-13
778497
50
50
63
7
8-13
10/1 11/1 8/1
Lord Abama has experience of today's trip and conditions, and our rating of 63 significantly outstrips his official mark of 50, suggesting he is well treated; however, a run of winless efforts in his last six starts, including a seventh last time out, makes the turnaround a tough ask.
AI verdict

SR 50 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Tickets silks
Tickets
Age 7 · 8-11
655242
48
57
55
7
8-11
13/2 5/1 13/2
Winless in his last six starts, Tickets has done little to inspire confidence despite twice finishing second in recent starts, and our figures rank him near the foot of this field; the experience over today's trip and going offers some small comfort, but he remains hard to fancy at 123 lb from stall six.
AI verdict

SR 57 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
My Mate Beattie silks
My Mate Beattie
Age 4 · 8-9
685357
45
27
46
4
8-9
40/1 25/1 33/1
Winless in her last six starts and ranked bottom of the field on our figures, My Mate Beattie faces a stiff ask, though she did finish third three starts back and has run over today's trip and going before — small consolations from stall one at 121 lb.
AI verdict

SR 27 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Donald 3/1 open 3.75 3/1 open 3.00 3/1 open 3.25 3/1 open 3.25 3/1 open 3.25 3/1 open 3.25 3/1 Bet365
2 Too Much 17/2 open 8.50 8/1 open 8.00 17/2 open 8.00 17/2 open 8.00 8/1 open 8.50 8/1 open 8.00 17/2 Bet365
3 Operation Gimcrack 11/2 11/2 open 6.00 11/2 open 6.00 11/2 open 6.00 11/2 open 6.00 11/2 open 6.00 11/2 Bet365
4 Asadjumeirah 9/2 open 3.50 5/1 open 4.00 5/1 open 3.75 5/1 open 4.00 5/1 open 4.00 5/1 open 4.00 5/1 Paddy Power
5 Men of Honour 11/2 open 13.00 5/1 open 10.00 5/1 open 9.50 5/1 open 9.50 9/2 open 9.50 4/1 open 9.50 11/2 Bet365
6 Masai Angel 25/1 open 21.00 25/1 25/1 open 23.00 25/1 open 23.00 25/1 open 23.00 22/1 25/1 Bet365
7 Territorial Star 20/1 18/1 open 26.00 18/1 open 23.00 18/1 open 23.00 16/1 open 23.00 16/1 open 23.00 20/1 Bet365
8 Lord Abama 10/1 open 17.00 8/1 open 12.00 9/1 open 13.00 9/1 open 13.00 17/2 open 13.00 17/2 open 13.00 10/1 Bet365
9 Tickets 13/2 open 6.00 7/1 open 7.50 7/1 open 7.00 7/1 open 7.00 7/1 open 7.00 13/2 open 7.00 7/1 Paddy Power
10 My Mate Beattie 40/1 open 26.00 40/1 open 34.00 40/1 open 29.00 40/1 open 29.00 40/1 open 29.00 33/1 open 29.00 40/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Asadjumeirah

Speculative

Asadjumeirah owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (36) and market confidence (79). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

9/2 Antony Brittain Ethan Tindall(5)
66% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Donald

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

3/1 · David & Nicola Barron
✓ Value Signal

My Mate Beattie

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

40/1 · Scott Dixon
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

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Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
36 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +13.5 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence High conviction
79 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +17.4 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
31 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.3 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
43 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.2 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
46 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.6 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
53 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.3 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 4. Asadjumeirah
49.3 9/2
2 1. Donald
48.3 3/1
3 2. Too Much
47.1 17/2
4 3. Operation Gimcrack
46.8 11/2
5 9. Tickets
45.1 13/2
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Men of Honour
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

1
Age 4 · 9-10
3/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 68 🐾

SR 68 suggests ability but 5/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Age 8 · 9-7
9/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 64 🐾

SR 64 suggests ability but 7/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Age 6 · 9-8
11/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 59 🐾

SR 59 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Age 4 · 9-7
11/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 54 🐾

SR 54 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Age 7 · 8-11
13/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 57 🐾

SR 57 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Age 6 · 9-9
17/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 58 🐾

SR 58 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Age 7 · 8-13
10/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 50 🐾

SR 50 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 3 · 9-1
20/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 40 🐾

SR 40 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Men of Honour
Confidence: Speculative

Men of Honour (SR:54, 8/1) is the standout market mover in this weak Class 6 field, steaming in 17% from opening — the only runner shortening in a race where every other horse has drifted, some dramatically. While the form string 996957 is uninspiring, the absence of a MarkMv penalty and no ClassMv shift means connections are targeting this at the same level with intent. Weight of 9-7 is competitive in this field and Ruth Carr's 12% strike rate with James Sullivan (8%) is a solid pairing. The market intelligence here is the decisive differentiator — in a race where the favourite Donald has drifted 6%, the 7/2 Asadjumeirah has drifted 14%, and the 17/2 Too Much has drifted 13%, someone is backing Men of Honour with conviction and that signal cannot be ignored. Each-way alternative: Operation Gimcrack. Main danger: Donald — Donald (SR:68, 5/2) is the highest-rated horse in the field by a clear margin and despite drifting 6%, the SR advantage alone gives it a realistic chance if the DistFit:- concern proves overstated on the day.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Form string 996957 shows Men of Honour has not finished better than 5th in 6 runs — zero wins or places to speak of — making the market move hard to reconcile with actual racecourse evidence.
  • SR:54 is the second-lowest among competitive runners; Donald (SR:68), Asadjumeirah (SR:64), and Operation Gimcrack (SR:59) all carry meaningfully superior speed ratings for this Class 6 contest.
  • Asadjumeirah has 7 course wins and 18 course places at Newcastle AW — a massive course advantage Men of Honour entirely lacks, with no course record shown at all.
  • James Sullivan's 8% strike rate is below-average and the Carr/Sullivan combination at 12%/8% is modest; the 17% market move may reflect a single placement bet rather than informed stable confidence.
Shortlist Men of Honour, Donald, Asadjumeirah, Operation Gimcrack
Each-way: Operation Gimcrack Danger: Donald

🗺 The Course Class 6

6f Distance to cover
Good Expected going
10 Confirmed runners
Newcastle (AW) Track and setting
Class 6 Race grade