Ayr 15:38 RESULTED
Class 4 29 Sep 2026

Last Tuesday Autumn Breaks At Western House Hotel Handicap Stakes

Autumn Breaks At Western House Hotel Handicap Stakes · 0m7f50y

Official Result

Autumn Breaks At Western House Hotel Handicap Stakes

Confirmed
  1. Winner One Night Thunder (GB) Connor Beasley · Gemma Tutty
    11/2
  2. 100/30
  3. Third Stanage (GB)
    22/1
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Settled
  • 10 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 4 days, 1 hour ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Misunderstood silks
Misunderstood
Age 4 · 10-1
745225
81
81
84
4
10-1
★★★☆☆
—
10/3 2/1 3/1
Misunderstood has finished second in two of his last six starts, showing consistent placing ability, and he returns on a quick turnaround of just seven days with experience over today's trip; the main risk is that he remains winless in recent starts.
AI verdict

SR 81 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Count Palatine silks
Count Palatine
Age 5 · 10-1
306167
81
75
80
5
10-1
★★☆☆☆
—
17/2 10/1 6/1
Count Palatine won three starts back and has experience of both today's trip and conditions, while carrying 141 lb from stall 3 as a fit, seven-days-fresh runner; the main concern is a trainer firing at just 5% in the last 14 days.
AI verdict

SR 75 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Quest For Fun silks
Quest For Fun
Age 8 · 9-11
530325
77
82
85
8
9-11
★★★☆☆
—
7/2 10/3 7/2
Quest For Fun arrives in good nick on a 10-day turnaround, and a second two starts back — alongside a third three starts back — underlines he is hitting the board with regularity; winless in his last six, he must convert, but our rating of 85 marks him out as the one to beat from stall 2 carrying 137 lb.
AI verdict

SR 82 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Homestrait silks
Homestrait
Age 3 · 9-10
146123
79
80
77
3
9-10
★★★☆☆
—
11/2 10/3 5/1
Homestrait arrives here in decent nick, placed third last time out and a winner three starts back, and she has run over today's trip and going before; carrying 136 lb from stall seven could test her, and our rating of 77 puts her just below the official mark.
AI verdict

SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Abduction silks
Abduction
Age 8 · 9-8
333243
74
75
79
8
9-8
★★☆☆☆
—
10/1 7/1 8/1
Placed third last time out and a second three starts back, Abduction has been knocking on the door in recent starts but remains winless in his last six, which is the obvious concern; experience over today's trip and going, plus a quick eight-day turnaround, at least suggest he arrives fit and familiar with conditions.
AI verdict

SR 75 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Tip Foster silks
Tip Foster
Age 3 · 9-6
310
75
52
75
3
9-6
★★☆☆☆
—
25/1 11/1 20/1
Beaten last time out after winning two starts back, Tip Foster has experience of today's trip and conditions but ranks eighth on our figures among ten runners, and that gulf makes him very hard to fancy here.
AI verdict

SR 52 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Stanage silks
Stanage
Age 5 · 9-5
45-707
71
68
83
5
9-5
★☆☆☆☆
—
12/1 16/1 11/1
Stanage has run over today's trip and going, and our rating of 83 ranks him third of the ten, but he is winless in his last five starts, a cold trainer strike-rate of 5% over the past fortnight is the significant worry, and he carries 131 lb from stall ten.
AI verdict

SR 68 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 12/1.

8
Wobwobwob silks
Wobwobwob
Age 8 · 9-4
095098
70
61
74
8
9-4
★★☆☆☆
—
12/1 18/1 10/1
Winless in his last six starts, with an eighth last time out doing little to inspire confidence, Wobwobwob is ranked near the foot of this field on our figures, though he has run over today's distance and going before and faces the race fresh enough on 28 days' rest.
AI verdict

SR 61 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
One Night Thunder silks
One Night Thunder
Age 6 · 9-4
387653
70
71
78
6
9-4
★★★☆☆
—
13/2 13/2 6/1
Winless in his last six starts, One Night Thunder at least showed some spark with a third last time out and a third six starts back, though the results in between make for sobering reading; he has run over today's trip and going, carries 130 lb from stall eight, and arrives on a fresh 20-day break.
AI verdict

SR 71 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

10
Circle of Trust silks
Circle of Trust
Age 3 · 8-13
-09210
68
57
68
3
8-13
★★☆☆☆
—
16/1 9/1 14/1
Ranked bottom of the field on our figures and with an unplaced effort last time out after 52 days off, Circle of Trust is hard to fancy at the weights, though he does hold a win two starts back and has run over today's trip.
AI verdict

SR 57 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Misunderstood 10/3 open 3.75 10/3 open 3.00 7/2 open 3.25 7/2 open 3.25 7/2 open 3.25 3/1 open 3.25 7/2 Coral
2 Count Palatine 17/2 open 11.00 8/1 open 12.00 6/1 open 12.00 6/1 open 12.00 8/1 open 13.00 15/2 open 12.00 17/2 Bet365
3 Quest For Fun 7/2 open 6.50 7/2 open 6.50 7/2 open 4.33 7/2 open 4.33 7/2 4/1 open 4.33 4/1 Betfred
4 Homestrait 11/2 open 4.33 11/2 open 5.00 5/1 open 5.00 5/1 open 5.00 6/1 open 5.00 11/2 open 5.00 6/1 William Hill
5 Abduction 10/1 open 8.00 8/1 open 8.50 17/2 open 8.50 17/2 open 8.50 17/2 open 9.00 9/1 open 8.50 10/1 Bet365
6 Tip Foster 25/1 open 12.00 33/1 open 15.00 22/1 open 15.00 22/1 open 15.00 20/1 open 15.00 25/1 open 15.00 33/1 Paddy Power
7 Stanage 12/1 open 23.00 12/1 open 21.00 11/1 open 17.00 11/1 open 17.00 11/1 open 17.00 12/1 open 17.00 12/1 Bet365
8 Wobwobwob 12/1 open 34.00 12/1 open 34.00 11/1 open 19.00 11/1 open 19.00 11/1 open 19.00 10/1 open 19.00 12/1 Bet365
9 One Night Thunder 13/2 open 8.00 13/2 6/1 open 7.50 6/1 open 7.50 13/2 open 8.00 13/2 13/2 Bet365
10 Circle of Trust 16/1 open 10.00 18/1 open 11.00 14/1 open 11.00 14/1 open 11.00 16/1 open 12.00 16/1 open 11.00 18/1 Paddy Power

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Quest For Fun

Speculative

Quest For Fun owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (46) and market confidence (84). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

7/2 Tim Easterby David Allan
66% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Homestrait

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

11/2 · Brian Ellison
✓ Value Signal

Tip Foster

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

25/1 · David & Nicola Barron
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
46 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +17.3 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
84 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +18.5 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
38 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.9 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
43 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.3 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
56 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.6 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
56 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.4 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 3. Quest For Fun
53.6 7/2
2 4. Homestrait
52.9 11/2
3 1. Misunderstood
51.2 10/3
4 9. One Night Thunder
48.8 13/2
5 5. Abduction
47.1 10/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Count Palatine
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

1
Age 4 · 10-1
10/3
★★★☆☆ SR 81 🐾 —

SR 81 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Age 8 · 9-11
7/2
★★★☆☆ SR 82 🐾 —

SR 82 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Age 3 · 9-10
11/2
★★★☆☆ SR 80 🐾 —

SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

9
Age 6 · 9-4
13/2
★★★☆☆ SR 71 🐾 —

SR 71 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 5 · 10-1
17/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 75 🐾 —

SR 75 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Age 8 · 9-8
10/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 75 🐾 —

SR 75 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 5 · 9-5
12/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 68 🐾 —

SR 68 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 12/1.

8
Age 8 · 9-4
12/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 61 🐾 —

SR 61 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Age 3 · 8-13
16/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 57 🐾 —

SR 57 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Count Palatine
Confidence: Speculative

Count Palatine (SR:75, 17/2) has steamered 26% in the market — significant money for a handicapper at this level — and brings the strongest course record in the field (W1P3 at Ayr), which matters enormously on a specialist track in heavy ground. Carrying 10-1, he is matched on weight with top-rated Misunderstood but at a far more generous price. Form figure of '7' last time out is the only blemish in a recent sequence that includes a '6' and '1', and the MarkMv:+3 is a modest 3lb rise that shouldn't be a significant barrier. The trainer Michael Dods (12% strike rate, 1682 runners) is a northern specialist who knows Ayr intimately, and Sean Kirrane's 11% career rate is respectable for this grade — crucially, the money is coming for this combination. Each-way alternative: Quest For Fun. Main danger: Quest For Fun — Quest For Fun (SR:82, 7/2) is the joint-highest rated runner, has steamed 12% in the market, holds a Course:W1P3 record at Ayr matching Count Palatine's, and GoingFit:~ suggests a degree of proven ability in soft/heavy conditions — Tim Easterby is a shrewd handler and this combination of course form plus market confidence makes it the most credible threat.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Count Palatine's last run was a '7' (likely a poor finish) just 7 days ago — very quick turnaround with no bounce-back time, and that effort suggests he may not have fully recovered.
  • SR:75 is the joint-lowest in the field alongside Abduction, well behind Quest For Fun (SR:82), Misunderstood (SR:81), and Homestrait (SR:80) who all have superior ratings heading into today.
  • Quest For Fun shares the identical course record (W1P3) and heavy-ground flag, is 7lb better off at the weights (9-11 vs 10-1), is also steaming in (-12%), and holds a superior SR:82 — directly under…
  • Sean Kirrane's 11% career strike rate is modest and his record on heavy ground specifically at Ayr is not flagged as a positive, while Daniel Tudhope (18%) and David Allan (13%) are meaningfully stro…
Shortlist Count Palatine, Quest For Fun, One Night Thunder, Misunderstood
Each-way: Quest For Fun Danger: Quest For Fun

🗺 The Course Class 4

0m7f50y Distance to cover
Heavy Expected going
10 Confirmed runners
Ayr Track and setting
Class 4 Race grade