Ayr 16:40 RESULTED
Class 4 29 Sep 2026

Last Tuesday Book Racing On Saturday 31 October Handicap Stakes

Book Racing On Saturday 31 October Handicap Stakes · 6f

Official Result

Book Racing On Saturday 31 October Handicap Stakes

Confirmed
  1. Winner Big Harry (GB) Shane Gray · William Stone
    13/2
  2. 11/4F
  3. Third Ashen (IRE)
    100/30
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Settled
  • 8 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 4 days, 1 hour ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Belsito silks
Belsito
Age 6 · 10-2
041321
77
81
81
6
10-2
★★☆☆☆
—
9/1 9/4 7/1
Belsito arrives on the back of a win last time out, with a second two starts back and a third three starts back reflecting a horse in excellent heart, and his experience over today's trip and going is a further asset at 142 lb from stall two; the question is whether our 81 rating can translate against potentially higher-rated rivals.
AI verdict

SR 81 suggests ability but 5/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Woven silks
Woven
Age 10 · 10-1
472959
81
87
96
10
10-1
★★☆☆☆
—
9/2 FCST 7/2
Woven is the top-rated runner here and shaped with promise when second four starts back, though he has been winless in his last six starts and the trainer's recent strike rate gives mild pause.
AI verdict

SR 87 suggests ability but 7/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Big Harry silks
Big Harry
Age 3 · 9-10
321-6
78
75
75
3
9-10
★★☆☆☆
—
5/1 7/2 4/1
Showed real ability when winning two starts back, and a placed effort three starts back adds substance to his claims, but a return from 111 days off and a demanding 136 lb burden temper enthusiasm; he has run over today's trip and going, though sixth last time out was disappointing.
AI verdict

SR 75 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Roberto Caro silks
Roberto Caro
Age 5 · 9-10
300074
76
71
78
5
9-10
★★☆☆☆
—
9/1 FCST 7/1
Winless in his last six starts, Roberto Caro does at least show some encouragement with a fourth last time out and a third six starts back, and he has run over today's trip before; carrying 136 lb from stall eight is the challenge he must overcome here.
AI verdict

SR 71 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Lord Bertie silks
Lord Bertie
Age 6 · 9-9
006902
75
78
88
6
9-9
★★★☆☆
—
4/1 7/2 4/1
Lord Bertie steps in as a leading threat, carrying 135 lb from stall five with a solid second last time out and experience over today's trip and conditions working in his favour, though he remains winless in his last six starts and that elusive breakthrough is the key risk.
AI verdict

SR 78 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Parisiac silks
Parisiac
Age 7 · 9-9
220893
75
80
85
7
9-9
★★☆☆☆
—
11/2 11/1 9/2
Placed third last time out, and with experience over today's trip and going, Parisiac brings solid claims from stall four carrying 135 lb — our rating of 85 makes him a leading threat, though he remains yet to score and the turnaround of just one day is the chief concern.
AI verdict

SR 80 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Stirrup Cup silks
Stirrup Cup
Age 4 · 9-7
391506
73
49
73
4
9-7
★★☆☆☆
—
33/1 25/1 20/1
Stirrup Cup has managed just one win in his last six starts, finishing sixth last time out, and his speed rating of 68 leaves him well below the level needed here; he has run over today's trip before and an eight-day turnaround suggests freshness, but he faces a stiff task from stall seven off 133 lb.
AI verdict

SR 49 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Ashen silks
Ashen
Age 4 · 9-1
420252
67
74
71
4
9-1
★★★☆☆
—
7/2 10/3 11/4
Winless in his last six starts, Ashen carries bottom weight of 127 lb and is ranked bottom of the field on our figures, making him hard to fancy despite placing on three occasions in recent starts and having run over today's trip before.
AI verdict

SR 74 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Belsito 9/1 open 3.25 8/1 open 4.00 7/1 open 3.75 7/1 open 3.75 9/1 open 4.33 17/2 open 3.75 9/1 Bet365
2 Woven 9/2 open 15.00 4/1 open 7.00 7/2 open 5.00 7/2 open 5.00 9/2 open 5.00 5/1 open 4.50 5/1 Betfred
3 Big Harry 5/1 open 4.50 5/1 open 5.50 4/1 4/1 9/2 4/1 5/1 Bet365
4 Roberto Caro 9/1 open 15.00 9/1 open 11.00 7/1 7/1 9/1 open 8.50 9/1 open 8.00 9/1 Bet365
5 Lord Bertie 4/1 open 4.50 4/1 open 4.50 4/1 open 4.50 4/1 open 4.50 4/1 4/1 open 4.50 4/1 Bet365
6 Parisiac 11/2 open 17.00 11/2 open 13.00 9/2 open 12.00 9/2 open 12.00 5/1 open 13.00 5/1 open 13.00 11/2 Bet365
7 Stirrup Cup 33/1 open 26.00 30/1 open 26.00 20/1 open 29.00 20/1 open 29.00 25/1 open 34.00 33/1 open 29.00 33/1 Bet365
8 Ashen 7/2 open 4.33 7/2 open 4.33 11/4 open 4.33 11/4 open 4.33 7/2 open 5.00 7/2 open 4.33 7/2 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Lord Bertie

Speculative

Lord Bertie owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (43) and market confidence (82). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

4/1 David O'Meara Mark Winn
70% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Belsito

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

9/1 · Kevin Ryan
✓ Value Signal

Stirrup Cup

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

33/1 · Tim Easterby
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
43 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +16.5 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence High conviction
82 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +17.9 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
36 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.7 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
43 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.3 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
57 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.7 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
54 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.4 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 5. Lord Bertie
54.3 4/1
2 1. Belsito
51.7 9/1
3 2. Woven
51.1 9/2
4 6. Parisiac
51.0 11/2
5 8. Ashen
50.6 7/2
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Parisiac
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

8
Age 4 · 9-1
7/2
★★★☆☆ SR 74 🐾 —

SR 74 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Age 6 · 9-9
4/1
★★★☆☆ SR 78 🐾 —

SR 78 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 10 · 10-1
9/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 87 🐾 —

SR 87 suggests ability but 7/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Age 3 · 9-10
5/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 75 🐾 —

SR 75 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Age 7 · 9-9
11/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 80 🐾 —

SR 80 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

1
Age 6 · 10-2
9/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 81 🐾 —

SR 81 suggests ability but 5/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Age 5 · 9-10
9/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 71 🐾 —

SR 71 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Parisiac
Confidence: Speculative

Parisiac (SR:80, 11/2) is the standout selection on a convergence of signals. The Mkt:in57% move is the strongest market signal in the field by some distance — money has more than halved this horse's implied probability since opening, and that kind of sustained steam on a heavy-ground Class 4 sprint demands respect. Course:W2P4 at Ayr is exceptional specialist form, directly relevant on this track. Dropping one class (ClassMv:↓1) gives a further edge, and while GoingFit:? flags limited heavy-ground data, running off MarkMv:= means the handicapper hasn't punished recent form. The 1-day turnaround is bold from Jardine but the market clearly knows the horse is in good order. Each-way alternative: Woven. Main danger: Woven — Woven (SR:87, 7/2) carries the field's highest SR, has steamed in 35% in the market, holds Course:W1P3 at Ayr, and drops two classes — but DistFit:- and GoingFit:- on heavy ground are real flags that the market may be over-weighting the class drop.

Case against 4 clamped
  • 1-day turnaround is extreme — racing just 24 hours after last run, and recent form (220893) shows a '3' last time, meaning Parisiac finished third without winning; recovery and freshness must be doub…
  • GoingFit:? on heavy ground is a concrete gap — HG:p means only a flat/polytrack profile, so today's heavy Ayr going is essentially untested territory and the course wins may have come on faster groun…
  • Form string 220893 contains an '8' and '9' — two well-beaten runs recently — suggesting inconsistency that makes the market steam less trustworthy as a guide to current peak form.
  • Woven (SR:87, 7/2) holds a higher speed rating, has MarkMv:-3 (handicapper lowering mark), course form W1P3, and its own Mkt:in35% — presents a materially stronger handicap case at a shorter price.
Shortlist Parisiac, Woven, Lord Bertie, Belsito
Each-way: Woven Danger: Woven

🗺 The Course Class 4

6f Distance to cover
Heavy Expected going
8 Confirmed runners
Ayr Track and setting
Class 4 Race grade