Billy Bathgate shaped with plenty of promise when third two starts back and returns on a quick 11-day turnaround with experience of both today's trip and going in his favour; the risk is that his latest sixth suggests he will need to find more on current form.
Form last 6461536
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
53SR58RPR55OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 53 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last five starts, Individualiste heads here off a 55-day break carrying 133 lb, with a fourth two starts back offset by a seventh last time out; he has run over today's distance and going, though his official rating of 50 leaves him with plenty to find.
Form last 63/9847
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
23SR49RPR50OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 23 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 66/1.
Consistent mare who has finished third in each of her last two starts, with experience of today's going working in her favour; winless in recent starts but the top-rated runner here on 63, and her current form makes her the one to beat.
Form last 6-74633
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
35SR63RPR48OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 35 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.
Winless in his last five starts, D Day Major Winter does at least return on a sharp 14-day turnaround and has experience of today's going, but a second last time out is the sole encouragement in otherwise modest recent form carrying 129 lb off an official mark of 46.
Form last 6-68542
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
50SR49RPR46OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 50 suggests ability but 11/4 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Razzo Italiano showed glimpses last time out with a third two starts back, has run over today's trip and going, and arrives here 18 days fresh carrying 129 lb; the concern is he remains winless in recent starts.
Form last 676D3-0
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
26SR56RPR46OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 26 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Winless in his last five starts and ranked bottom of this field on our figures, Freewheelin has been consistently well beaten, with finishes of seventh or worse in three of those runs; he carries 129 lb on a lengthy 70-day absence, leaving little to commend him here despite having run over today's trip and going.
Form last 6407-88
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
15SR44RPR41OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 15 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 150/1.
Masterpiece arrives here 171 days since his last start, and that lengthy absence is the chief concern alongside his being yet to win in recent starts; a third three starts back offers some encouragement, and he has run over today's going before, but he has plenty to prove on return.
Form last 6306
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
20SR52RPR34OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 20 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.
Echo Valley shaped with plenty of promise when second two starts back, and having run over today's going before, she arrives here fit on a 14-day turnaround with our rating edging above her official mark — the risk is that she remains winless in recent starts.
Form last 6707424
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
47SR53RPR50OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 47 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last six starts, Notable Charm at least brings distance and going experience to the table, and a second last time out suggests some residual form; at 123 lb off an official mark of 49, the weight is no featherweight, though eight days since his last run leaves him fresh enough.
Form last 6646452
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
60SR52RPR49OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 60 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last six starts and ranked ninth of eleven on our figures, Turton faces a stiff task, though he has run over today's going before and returns on a fresh enough 17-day break.
Form last 669569V
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
24SR46RPR48OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 24 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.
Winless in her last six starts, Lilykoy ranks tenth of eleven on our figures and faces a stiff task, though she has run over today's trip and going before and returns on a reasonable 24-day break carrying 120 lb.
Form last 6568343
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
44SR45RPR44OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 44 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Notable Charm owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (33) and market confidence (94). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
6/5Marcus TregoningBilly Loughnane
77%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Billy Bathgate
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
7/1 · Ewan Whillans✓ Value Signal
Nature
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
25/1 · Miss Celine De La Haye◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Billy Bathgate (SR:53, 13/2) is the highest-rated horse in this weak Class 6 field and brings the standout course record of W1P4 at Wolverhampton — course specialists on AW tracks have a proven edge and five visits here already show he handles this track. The market has steamed in 20% since opening, the strongest positive market move in the field, signalling informed confidence. Clifford Lee (17% career SR) is a capable booking and 9-12 is not an onerous weight burden given the opposition. The moderate DistFit:~ and GoingFit:~ are the main caveats, but with a +2 mark move he is still competitive off his current mark and his SR of 53 comfortably leads the field.
Each-way alternative: D Day Major Winter.
Main danger: D Day Major Winter — D Day Major Winter (SR:50, 11/4) is the market favourite with a top trainer-jockey combination in James Owen (19%) and Cieren Fallon (18%), and at only 4 years old has more improvement potential than the older runners, making him the most likely alternative winner despite the DistFit:? flag at this trip.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Notable Charm (SR:60) is 7 rating points superior to Billy Bathgate and is the 11/10 market favourite — Billy Bathgate at 13/2 is clearly not the market's idea of the best horse in this race.
Billy Bathgate is a 10-year-old whose form string 461536 shows no win in recent starts; his sole course win at Wolverhampton may be historical rather than current form, and he has been beaten four of…
D Day Major Winter (SR:50) is only 3 points below Billy Bathgate in rating, is 4 years younger at age 4, trained by James Owen (19% SR) with Cieren Fallon (18% SR) aboard — a formidable youth-and-qua…
The +2 mark move means Billy Bathgate is racing off a higher handicap mark than last time; with moderate DistFit and GoingFit flagged, he faces the track in less than ideal conditions with less margi…
ShortlistBilly Bathgate, D Day Major Winter, Notable Charm, Echo Valley
Each-way: D Day Major WinterDanger: D Day Major Winter