Third last time out and placed second four starts back, Past Passion arrives on the back of consistent efforts and has run over today's trip and going — our ratings mark her as the one to beat, though she remains yet to win in recent starts and the trainer's current form gives mild pause.
Form last 6232043
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
72SR78RPR64OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 72 suggests ability but 4/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last four starts, Hemustbeanangel does offer some encouragement with two thirds in recent outings, has run over today's distance and going, and returns after 21 days, though that sixth last time out is the more cautious note for a gelding rated 63 officially.
Form last 69336
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
68SR69RPR63OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 68 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Polly The Sniper shaped well for second two starts back and, rated 73, makes a strong case as a leading danger drawn from stall nine carrying 133 lb, with experience over today's trip and going in her favour; the main risk is that she has been winless in recent starts.
Form last 65626
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
53SR73RPR62OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 53 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last three starts, Snow On The Beach has nonetheless shown some consistency in placing mid-pack, and has run over today's trip before; the 133 lb burden from stall ten, however, is a notable ask as she looks to finally break through.
Form last 6657
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
55SR65RPR62OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 55 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last five starts, Courseyoudo nevertheless rates above his official mark on our assessment and has experience of today's trip and going, making him a stronger threat than his bare form suggests; the obvious risk is that he has struggled to convert that ability into a finish better than fifth recently.
Form last 667585
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
37SR69RPR61OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 37 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.
Winless in his last three starts and ranked ninth of twelve on our figures, Premium Seat faces a stiff task here; he has run over today's trip and returns on a quick 14-day turnaround, but his recent sequence of sixth, fifth and eighth offers little encouragement.
Form last 6856
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
30SR62RPR61OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 30 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
Placed second two starts back and third three starts back, Last Dandelion arrives here with experience over today's trip and going, carries 130 lb from stall five, and our rating of 70 suggests she is notably ahead of her official mark; the risk is that she has been winless in recent starts.
Form last 6045320
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
47SR70RPR59OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 47 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Winless in his last three starts and ranked tenth of twelve on our figures, It's A Dream faces a stiff task here; experience over today's trip and going counts in his favour, though 42 days off and a modest official rating of 52 make him hard to fancy at the weights.
Form last 6595
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
29SR60RPR52OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 29 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.
Winless in her last six starts, So Tempting does at least step back up having run over today's trip and going, and her second three starts back hints at ability; eighth last time out and a rating 14 lb above the official mark offer a mixed picture heading into this.
Form last 6866258
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
47SR64RPR50OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 47 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Consistent without being a winner, Devon Angel has finished second in each of her last two starts and has run over today's distance and going before, but she remains yet to score in recent starts and our rating of 62 suggests she faces a stiff task from eight of twelve rivals.
Form last 6636422
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
59SR62RPR48OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 59 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last five starts, Good Fighter has struggled for form throughout — a fifth the best he has managed in recent starts — and ranked 11th of 12 on our figures, he faces an uphill task here, though he has run over today's trip and going before and returns on a fair 22-day break.
Form last 675969
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
32SR59RPR46OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 32 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.
Winless in her last three starts and ranked bottom of the field on our figures, Foxsbrush faces a stiff task, though she has run over today's distance and going before and draws stall one carrying 116 lb.
Form last 6706
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
13SR38RPR33OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 13 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Hemustbeanangel owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (38) and market confidence (91). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
2/1Roger TealJoe Leavy
75%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Past Passion
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
4/1 · Jonathan Portman✓ Value Signal
Good Fighter
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
25/1 · Ismail Mohammed & Jose Santos◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Hemustbeanangel (SR:68, 7/4) is the clear class leader in this Class 6 nursery and the market has backed that up emphatically — shortening 33% since opening to 7/4, the sharpest move in the field. Crucially, it is the only runner with both DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+, confirming proven ability at this 5f160y trip on good-to-firm ground specifically. At 9-8 it carries just 1lb more than Past Passion (SR:72) but holds a massive SR advantage over every other runner, and Roger Teal's 13% yard strike rate with Joe Leavy (12%, 1,261 career rides) is a competent booking rather than a defensive one. The form string 9-3-3-6 reads modestly but the distance and going fit — absent from all genuine dangers — is the differentiator here.
Each-way alternative: Past Passion.
Main danger: Past Passion — Past Passion (SR:72, 4/1) holds the highest SR in the field and has steamed 22% in the market, suggesting stable confidence, and while GoingFit:? is a mild unknown, its DistFit:~ at least covers the trip adequately unlike most rivals.
⚖Case against3clamped▾
Form string 9-3-3-6 shows a deteriorating trend — the most recent run was a sixth, and the horse has not won in four career starts despite being dropped to Class 6.
Past Passion (SR:72) holds a 4-point SR superiority and is only 1lb heavier; Rob Hornby (12%, 2058 rides) is the more experienced jockey booking and Past Passion is shortening too (in 22%).
Devon Angel (SR:59) brings Silvestre De Sousa, a 14%-strike-rate jockey on a horse showing a consistent recent form string of 636422 — improving profile that could outrun its 9/2 price against a non-…
ShortlistHemustbeanangel, Past Passion, Snow On The Beach