Bath 14:32 RESULTED
Class 5 29 Sep 2026

Last Tuesday Mj Church Handicap Stakes

Mj Church Handicap Stakes · 1m5f11y

Official Result

Mj Church Handicap Stakes

Confirmed
  1. Winner Hebridean Nomad (GB) Charlie Tucker · Andrew Balding
    6/1
  2. 33/1
  3. 15/2
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Settled
  • 14 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 4 days ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Percy Jones silks
Percy Jones
Age 7 · 10-2
364423
70
62
72
7
10-2
★★☆☆☆
—
9/1 8/1 17/2
Consistent and lightly tried at the top of our assessments, Percy Jones has finished third last time out and second two starts back, bringing a string of honest efforts to this assignment; yet to win in recent starts remains the one caveat to oppose.
AI verdict

SR 62 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Belle of Kt silks
Belle of Kt
Age 5 · 10-0
111130
68
69
61
5
10-0
★★★☆☆
—
17/2 9/1 8/1
Ranked well below the field on our figures, Belle of Kt faces a stiff task, and her unplaced effort last time out adds to the concern; though she has winning form in recent starts and has run over today's trip, the weight of 140 lb makes it harder still to warm to her claims.
AI verdict

SR 69 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Hebridean Nomad silks
Hebridean Nomad
Age 5 · 9-13
-31224
67
71
70
5
9-13
★★☆☆☆
—
13/2 9/2 13/2
Placed second two starts back and twice in recent starts, with a win four starts back giving his record some substance, but Hebridean Nomad finished fourth last time out and a rating of 67 suggests he faces a stiff ask under 139 lb, despite having experience over today's trip.
AI verdict

SR 71 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Chambers silks
Chambers
Age 4 · 9-10
457-14
64
61
66
4
9-10
★★☆☆☆
—
10/1 FCST 17/2
Landed a win two starts back but has posted a fourth and been out of the frame either side of it, giving his recent form a mixed look; has run over today's trip and going, though 60 days off the track and a hefty 136 lb to carry are the checks against him here.
AI verdict

SR 61 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Yokkell silks
Yokkell
Age 7 · 9-9
354169
63
41
68
7
9-9
★☆☆☆☆
—
20/1 22/1 16/1
Landed a win three starts back but has finished sixth and ninth since, so form is patchy; she has run over today's trip and going, and 19 days off looks a fair enough prep, though 135 lb is a stiff burden to shoulder.
AI verdict

SR 41 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.

6
Society Girl silks
Society Girl
Age 3 · 9-9
-80313
70
75
69
3
9-9
★★★☆☆
—
13/2 5/1 6/1
Society Girl arrives here third last time out and a winner two starts back, showing she can hit the frame, though a 40-day absence and a demanding 135 lb ask are the checks against her as she lines up seventh in our ratings from 14 runners.
AI verdict

SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Cosmo Brown silks
Cosmo Brown
Age 3 · 9-8
883632
69
77
73
3
9-8
★★★☆☆
—
9/2 7/2 9/2
Cosmo Brown arrives on the back of solid placed efforts, finishing third two starts back and a close second last time out, and he has experience over today's distance and going. Carrying 134 lb, he heads this 14-runner field as the top-rated runner, though he remains winless in recent starts.
AI verdict

SR 77 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

8
One Cool Dreamer silks
One Cool Dreamer
Age 5 · 9-8
-24766
62
39
69
5
9-8
★☆☆☆☆
—
66/1 28/1 50/1
Winless in his last five starts, though a second five starts back hints at better days, One Cool Dreamer has distance and going experience in his favour at 134 lb, but three successive sixths and sevenths make him hard to fancy from sixth in the ratings.
AI verdict

SR 39 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.

9
Moab silks
Moab
Age 6 · 9-8
416-33
62
69
62
6
9-8
★★★☆☆
—
6/1 13/2 11/2
Ranked 11 of 14 on our figures, Moab faces a stiff ask at the weights carrying 134 lb, and a speed rating of 59 does little to inspire confidence; he has run over today's trip and going before, and back-to-back thirds in his last two starts show he retains some form.
AI verdict

SR 69 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

10
Zarco silks
Zarco
Age 3 · 9-6
546-42
67
71
70
3
9-6
★★★☆☆
—
11/2 4/1 5/1
Zarco has been a model of consistency without a win in recent starts, finishing second last time out and regularly threatening throughout this campaign; he has run over today's trip and going, and at 132 lb the weight could prove the stiffest test of his resolution.
AI verdict

SR 71 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

11
Calshot Spit silks
Calshot Spit
Age 6 · 9-6
22118/
60
62
56
6
9-6
★★☆☆☆
—
14/1 20/1 12/1
A lengthy absence of 158 days and a lowly rating rank of 14th in the field make him hard to fancy on these figures, though he did win two of his last five starts and has run over today's trip before.
AI verdict

SR 62 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

12
Two Plus Two silks
Two Plus Two
Age 6 · 9-5
142429
59
68
59
6
9-5
★★★☆☆
—
15/2 8/1 7/1
Two Plus Two has struggled in his most recent start, finishing ninth, and ranked 13 of 14 on our figures he faces a stiff ask here; has run over today's trip and going, and that second two starts back offers a crumb of encouragement, but the evidence makes him hard to fancy.
AI verdict

SR 68 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

13
Beggarman silks
Beggarman
Age 9 · 9-4
0-4524
58
59
63
9
9-4
★★☆☆☆
—
16/1 11/1 14/1
Winless in his last five starts, Beggarman at least showed a placed effort two runs back, though a return of 45 days and a testing 130 lb burden raise questions; he has run over today's trip and going, giving him some grounding, but a rating of 63 leaves him mid-pack in a 14-runner field.
AI verdict

SR 59 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

14
Virtue Diligence silks
Virtue Diligence
Age 3 · 9-4
-83464
65
46
72
3
9-4
★★☆☆☆
—
40/1 16/1 40/1
SR 46 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 46 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Percy Jones 9/1 open 9.00 17/2 open 10.00 17/2 17/2 17/2 9/1 open 9.50 9/1 Bet365
2 Belle of Kt 17/2 open 15.00 8/1 open 10.00 17/2 open 12.00 17/2 open 12.00 17/2 open 12.00 17/2 open 11.00 17/2 Bet365
3 Hebridean Nomad 13/2 open 6.00 7/1 open 6.00 7/1 open 6.00 7/1 open 6.00 13/2 open 6.00 7/1 open 5.50 7/1 Paddy Power
4 Chambers 10/1 17/2 9/1 9/1 9/1 9/1 10/1 Bet365
5 Yokkell 20/1 open 26.00 16/1 open 26.00 18/1 open 26.00 18/1 open 26.00 18/1 open 26.00 18/1 open 23.00 20/1 Bet365
6 Society Girl 13/2 open 6.00 13/2 open 7.00 13/2 open 6.50 13/2 open 6.50 13/2 open 6.50 6/1 open 6.50 13/2 Bet365
7 Cosmo Brown 9/2 open 8.00 9/2 open 6.00 5/1 open 7.00 5/1 open 7.00 5/1 open 7.00 5/1 open 4.50 5/1 Coral
8 One Cool Dreamer 66/1 open 34.00 50/1 open 34.00 50/1 open 34.00 50/1 open 34.00 50/1 open 34.00 50/1 open 29.00 66/1 Bet365
9 Moab 6/1 open 9.00 6/1 open 7.50 13/2 open 8.00 13/2 open 8.00 6/1 open 8.00 11/2 open 7.50 13/2 Coral
10 Zarco 11/2 open 5.00 11/2 open 6.00 5/1 open 5.50 5/1 open 5.50 11/2 open 5.50 11/2 open 5.50 11/2 Bet365
11 Calshot Spit 14/1 open 21.00 14/1 open 23.00 16/1 open 21.00 16/1 open 21.00 14/1 open 21.00 12/1 open 21.00 16/1 Coral
12 Two Plus Two 15/2 open 17.00 15/2 open 10.00 15/2 open 13.00 15/2 open 13.00 7/1 open 13.00 7/1 open 9.00 15/2 Bet365
13 Beggarman 16/1 open 12.00 14/1 open 19.00 16/1 open 15.00 16/1 open 15.00 18/1 open 15.00 14/1 open 17.00 18/1 William Hill
14 Virtue Diligence 40/1 open 17.00 40/1 open 29.00 40/1 open 21.00 40/1 open 21.00 40/1 open 21.00 40/1 open 23.00 40/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Hebridean Nomad

Speculative

Hebridean Nomad owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (39) and market confidence (70). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

13/2 Andrew Balding Charlie Tucker(7)
64% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Cosmo Brown

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

9/2 · William Muir & Chris Grassick
✓ Value Signal

Virtue Diligence

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

40/1 · Amanda Perrett
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
39 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +15.0 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Live signal
70 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +15.4 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
33 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.4 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Speculative
50 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.0 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
53 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.3 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
49 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +3.9 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 3. Hebridean Nomad
50.0 13/2
2 7. Cosmo Brown
49.6 9/2
3 10. Zarco
49.3 11/2
4 2. Belle of Kt
46.8 17/2
5 9. Moab
46.7 6/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Two Plus Two
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

7
Age 3 · 9-8
9/2
★★★☆☆ SR 77 🐾 —

SR 77 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

10
Age 3 · 9-6
11/2
★★★☆☆ SR 71 🐾 —

SR 71 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

9
Age 6 · 9-8
6/1
★★★☆☆ SR 69 🐾 —

SR 69 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Age 5 · 9-13
13/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 71 🐾 —

SR 71 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Age 3 · 9-9
13/2
★★★☆☆ SR 75 🐾 —

SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

12
Age 6 · 9-5
15/2
★★★☆☆ SR 68 🐾 —

SR 68 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 5 · 10-0
17/2
★★★☆☆ SR 69 🐾 —

SR 69 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

1
Age 7 · 10-2
9/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 62 🐾 —

SR 62 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Age 4 · 9-10
10/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 61 🐾 —

SR 61 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

11
Age 6 · 9-6
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 62 🐾 —

SR 62 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

13
Age 9 · 9-4
16/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 59 🐾 —

SR 59 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Age 7 · 9-9
20/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 41 🐾 —

SR 41 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Two Plus Two
Confidence: Speculative

Two Plus Two (SR:68, 13/2, Wgt:9-5) combines the strongest market signal in the race — a 39% inward move from opening — with Course:W2P2 at Bath, making this horse a proven course specialist. Dropping three class tiers (ClassMv:↓3) while carrying a relatively light 9-5 in a Class 5 field is a compelling combination, and Rossa Ryan's 18% career strike rate is the best jockey stat in the race. The MarkMv:+2 is a minor concern but the class drop more than compensates, and the money coming in strongly at 13/2 suggests connections are confident. Each-way alternative: Cosmo Brown. Main danger: Cosmo Brown — Cosmo Brown (SR:77, 9/2, Wgt:9-8) is the highest-rated horse in the field, has shortened 16% in the market, and carries the top SR by a clear margin — if the 3-year-old's untested distance and going fitness (both DistFit:? and GoingFit:?) prove adequate over 1m5f, his class edge makes him the most likely winner.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Recent form 142429 shows a '9' last time out — a poor finishing position that suggests current form is deteriorating rather than building into this race.
  • SR:68 is mid-table in this field; Cosmo Brown (SR:77, market fav at 9/2) and Society Girl (SR:75, 6/1) both rate superior on speed figures with stronger trainer/jockey combos.
  • MarkMv:+2 means the handicapper has nudged the rating up despite that weak last run — horse must improve on officially assessed current form to win, not just match it.
  • Trainer Ed de Giles has a 10% strike rate (435 runs) — the weakest trainer stat among the market principals, undermining confidence that connections can have the horse cherry-picked for today.
Shortlist Two Plus Two, Cosmo Brown, Society Girl, Moab
Each-way: Cosmo Brown Danger: Cosmo Brown

🗺 The Course Class 5

1m5f11y Distance to cover
Good to Firm Expected going
14 Confirmed runners
Bath Track and setting
Class 5 Race grade