Consistent and lightly tried at the top of our assessments, Percy Jones has finished third last time out and second two starts back, bringing a string of honest efforts to this assignment; yet to win in recent starts remains the one caveat to oppose.
Form last 6364423
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
62SR72RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 62 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked well below the field on our figures, Belle of Kt faces a stiff task, and her unplaced effort last time out adds to the concern; though she has winning form in recent starts and has run over today's trip, the weight of 140 lb makes it harder still to warm to her claims.
Form last 6111130
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
69SR61RPR68OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Placed second two starts back and twice in recent starts, with a win four starts back giving his record some substance, but Hebridean Nomad finished fourth last time out and a rating of 67 suggests he faces a stiff ask under 139 lb, despite having experience over today's trip.
Form last 6-31224
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
71SR70RPR67OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 71 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Landed a win two starts back but has posted a fourth and been out of the frame either side of it, giving his recent form a mixed look; has run over today's trip and going, though 60 days off the track and a hefty 136 lb to carry are the checks against him here.
Form last 6457-14
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
61SR66RPR64OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 61 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Landed a win three starts back but has finished sixth and ninth since, so form is patchy; she has run over today's trip and going, and 19 days off looks a fair enough prep, though 135 lb is a stiff burden to shoulder.
Form last 6354169
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
41SR68RPR63OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 41 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.
Society Girl arrives here third last time out and a winner two starts back, showing she can hit the frame, though a 40-day absence and a demanding 135 lb ask are the checks against her as she lines up seventh in our ratings from 14 runners.
Form last 6-80313
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
75SR69RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Cosmo Brown arrives on the back of solid placed efforts, finishing third two starts back and a close second last time out, and he has experience over today's distance and going. Carrying 134 lb, he heads this 14-runner field as the top-rated runner, though he remains winless in recent starts.
Form last 6883632
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
77SR73RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 77 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last five starts, though a second five starts back hints at better days, One Cool Dreamer has distance and going experience in his favour at 134 lb, but three successive sixths and sevenths make him hard to fancy from sixth in the ratings.
Form last 6-24766
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
39SR69RPR62OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 39 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
Ranked 11 of 14 on our figures, Moab faces a stiff ask at the weights carrying 134 lb, and a speed rating of 59 does little to inspire confidence; he has run over today's trip and going before, and back-to-back thirds in his last two starts show he retains some form.
Form last 6416-33
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
69SR62RPR62OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Zarco has been a model of consistency without a win in recent starts, finishing second last time out and regularly threatening throughout this campaign; he has run over today's trip and going, and at 132 lb the weight could prove the stiffest test of his resolution.
Form last 6546-42
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
71SR70RPR67OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 71 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
A lengthy absence of 158 days and a lowly rating rank of 14th in the field make him hard to fancy on these figures, though he did win two of his last five starts and has run over today's trip before.
Form last 622118/
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
62SR56RPR60OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 62 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Two Plus Two has struggled in his most recent start, finishing ninth, and ranked 13 of 14 on our figures he faces a stiff ask here; has run over today's trip and going, and that second two starts back offers a crumb of encouragement, but the evidence makes him hard to fancy.
Form last 6142429
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
68SR59RPR59OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 68 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last five starts, Beggarman at least showed a placed effort two runs back, though a return of 45 days and a testing 130 lb burden raise questions; he has run over today's trip and going, giving him some grounding, but a rating of 63 leaves him mid-pack in a 14-runner field.
Form last 60-4524
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
59SR63RPR58OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 59 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Hebridean Nomad owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (39) and market confidence (70). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
13/2Andrew BaldingCharlie Tucker(7)
64%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Cosmo Brown
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
9/2 · William Muir & Chris Grassick✓ Value Signal
Virtue Diligence
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
40/1 · Amanda Perrett◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Two Plus Two (SR:68, 13/2, Wgt:9-5) combines the strongest market signal in the race — a 39% inward move from opening — with Course:W2P2 at Bath, making this horse a proven course specialist. Dropping three class tiers (ClassMv:↓3) while carrying a relatively light 9-5 in a Class 5 field is a compelling combination, and Rossa Ryan's 18% career strike rate is the best jockey stat in the race. The MarkMv:+2 is a minor concern but the class drop more than compensates, and the money coming in strongly at 13/2 suggests connections are confident.
Each-way alternative: Cosmo Brown.
Main danger: Cosmo Brown — Cosmo Brown (SR:77, 9/2, Wgt:9-8) is the highest-rated horse in the field, has shortened 16% in the market, and carries the top SR by a clear margin — if the 3-year-old's untested distance and going fitness (both DistFit:? and GoingFit:?) prove adequate over 1m5f, his class edge makes him the most likely winner.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Recent form 142429 shows a '9' last time out — a poor finishing position that suggests current form is deteriorating rather than building into this race.
SR:68 is mid-table in this field; Cosmo Brown (SR:77, market fav at 9/2) and Society Girl (SR:75, 6/1) both rate superior on speed figures with stronger trainer/jockey combos.
MarkMv:+2 means the handicapper has nudged the rating up despite that weak last run — horse must improve on officially assessed current form to win, not just match it.
Trainer Ed de Giles has a 10% strike rate (435 runs) — the weakest trainer stat among the market principals, undermining confidence that connections can have the horse cherry-picked for today.
ShortlistTwo Plus Two, Cosmo Brown, Society Girl, Moab