Musselburgh 13:38 RESULTED
Class 4 30 Sep 2026

Last Wednesday British Ebf Novice Stakes (gbb Race)

British Ebf Novice Stakes (gbb Race) · 5f1y

Official Result

British Ebf Novice Stakes (gbb Race)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Sable Noir (IRE) Kevin Stott · Kevin Ryan
    5/1
  2. 1/9F
  3. 50/1
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Settled
  • 3 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 3 days, 1 hour ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Sod Hall Lane silks
Sod Hall Lane
Age 2 · 9-11
21
84
93
84OR
2
9-11
★★★☆☆
—
1/7 3/20 1/7
SR 93 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
AI verdict

SR 93 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Just For Monty silks
Just For Monty
Age 2 · 9-4
56
—
124
—
2
9-4
★★☆☆☆
—
66/1 50/1 40/1
SR 124 suggests ability but 66/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 124 suggests ability but 66/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Sable Noir silks
Sable Noir
Age 2 · 8-13
83
—
153
—
2
8-13
★★★★☆
—
4/1 3/1 4/1
Favourable weight of 8-13 gives a real edge in this handicap.
AI verdict

Favourable weight of 8-13 gives a real edge in this handicap.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Sod Hall Lane 1/7 open 1.22 1/7 open 1.15 2/13 open 1.17 2/13 open 1.17 1/7 open 1.18 2/13 open 1.17 2/13 Coral
2 Just For Monty 66/1 open 81.00 40/1 open 51.00 50/1 50/1 50/1 50/1 66/1 Bet365
3 Sable Noir 4/1 open 4.00 4/1 open 4.50 4/1 open 4.50 4/1 open 4.50 4/1 open 4.50 4/1 open 4.50 4/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Sable Noir

High conviction

Sable Noir owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (85) and market confidence (82). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

4/1 Kevin Ryan Kevin Stott
87% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Sod Hall Lane

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

1/7 · Declan Carroll
✓ Value Signal

Just For Monty

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

66/1 · Katie Scott
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Dominant
85 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +32.3 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence High conviction
82 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +17.9 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Speculative
59 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.8 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Speculative
57 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.7 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor High conviction
63 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +6.3 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
54 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.4 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 3 ranked by the active lens.
1 3. Sable Noir
71.7 4/1
2 1. Sod Hall Lane
61.0 1/7
3 2. Just For Monty
53.0 66/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Sable Noir
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

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The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

1
Age 2 · 9-11
1/7
★★★☆☆ SR 93 🐾 —

SR 93 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Age 2 · 8-13
4/1
★★★★☆ SR 153 🐾 —

Favourable weight of 8-13 gives a real edge in this handicap.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

Drifters Drifted — market cooling

No drifters in this race.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Sable Noir
Confidence: Speculative

Sable Noir (SR 153) holds a commanding 60-point SR advantage over Sod Hall Lane (SR 93) and a 29-point edge over Just For Monty (SR 124), which is a decisive gap in a three-runner novice. Kevin Ryan (12% strike rate, 1,688 runners) and Kevin Stott (15% strike rate, 1,174 runners) are a strong pairing with genuine pedigree for juvenile sprints. The weight allowance of 8-13 versus Sod Hall Lane's 9-11 gives Sable Noir a further 12lb pull on the scales, which compounds the SR advantage rather than offsetting it. The 13% market drift is the one concern — it suggests some money has moved away — but at 4/1 into a 1/6 shot whose SR is dramatically inferior, the SR and weight evidence overrides the drift signal here; Sod Hall Lane's market confidence looks more like market inertia from a previous run than genuine form superiority. Each-way alternative: Sod Hall Lane. Main danger: Sod Hall Lane — At 1/6 the market is strongly committed to Sod Hall Lane and juvenile two-year-old ability can be opaque — if its previous form (2-1 line) came against better opposition than the SR captures, it could outrun a 93 rating on the day, especially with a 12lb weight concession working in its favour.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Sable Noir drifted 13% in the market despite being trained by a yard with access to good information — money moving away from a short-priced contender in a 3-runner field is a sharp signal worth heed…
  • Recent form of '83' shows Sable Noir finished 8th on debut then 3rd — Sod Hall Lane's '21' (runner-up then winner) shows a horse improving rapidly and peaking right now at 28 days since a win.
  • Sod Hall Lane is 1/6 in a 3-runner race at a track where it has course experience (W0P1 like Sable Noir), suggesting the market has strong conviction this is a penalty kick, not just inertia.
  • Sable Noir carries an 'h' headgear flag, indicating a hood in use — a hood on a juvenile in a small field can signal the horse has shown temperament or focus issues that may resurface under race pres…
Shortlist Sable Noir, Sod Hall Lane, Just For Monty
Each-way: Sod Hall Lane Danger: Sod Hall Lane

🗺 The Course Class 4

5f1y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
3 Confirmed runners
Musselburgh Track and setting
Class 4 Race grade