Down Royal 13:59 RESULTED
28 Sep 2026

Last Monday Coors Fillies Handicap

Coors Fillies Handicap · 1m4f194y

Official Result

Coors Fillies Handicap

Confirmed
  1. Winner Nellcote (IRE) Declan McDonogh · Joseph Patrick O'Brien
    7/2
  2. Second Vanir (IRE)
    9/1
  3. Third Ankara (FR)
    25/1
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Settled
  • 10 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 5 days, 1 hour ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Ankara silks
Ankara
Age 4 · 10-0
89-370
86
66
88
4
10-0
★☆☆☆☆
—
16/1 14/1 16/1
Ankara shaped with promise when third three starts back and returns here on familiar distance and going terms after just 20 days, with our rating of 88 marking her out as a genuine danger; the risk is that she has been winless in her last five starts.
AI verdict

SR 66 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

2
Denim And Diamonds silks
Denim And Diamonds
Age 4 · 9-12
0-7847
84
67
90
4
9-12
★☆☆☆☆
—
9/1 11/1 9/1
Denim And Diamonds has run over today's trip and going, and our rating of 90 marks her out as a genuine threat at the head of the market, but she is winless in her last five starts and must convert that promise into a clear step forward.
AI verdict

SR 67 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.

3
Navy Waters silks
Navy Waters
Age 5 · 9-12
545330
84
81
90
5
9-12
★★☆☆☆
—
11/2 7/2 11/2
Rated highest in the field and carrying 138 lb, Navy Waters arrives in decent nick at 20 days, has run over today's trip and going, and posted a pair of thirds before an unplaced latest — yet to score in recent starts is the caveat to note.
AI verdict

SR 81 suggests ability but 9/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Narlita silks
Narlita
Age 7 · 9-11
364050
Sam Coen 11%
H Rogers 10%
83
59
90
7
9-11
★☆☆☆☆
—
18/1 16/1 18/1
Placed at this level and back quickly after running seven days ago, Narlita has experience of today's distance and going and a rating of 90 suggests she holds strong claims, though she remains winless in her last six starts and will need to find improvement to go one better.
AI verdict

SR 59 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.

5
Just Keep Flying silks
Just Keep Flying
Age 4 · 9-6
235-63
78
79
87
4
9-6
★★☆☆☆
—
11/1 8/1 10/1
Yet to win in her last five starts, Just Keep Flying does at least bring distance and going experience to the table, and her rating of 87 suggests she holds ability — though 108 days off the track is a fitness query for this filly carrying 132 lb.
AI verdict

SR 79 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Vanir silks
Vanir
Age 3 · 9-5
82138
84
86
86
3
9-5
★★★☆☆
—
17/2 11/2 8/1
Ran well to finish third two starts back and a winner three starts back, but her last outing — an eighth — gives pause, and 131 lb is no gimme; she has run over today's trip and going, and her form profile makes her a realistic each-way player rather than a banker.
AI verdict

SR 86 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Nellcote silks
Nellcote
Age 3 · 9-3
412
82
88
80
3
9-3
★★★☆☆
—
3/1 11/4 3/1
Ran second last time out and a winner two starts back, so Nellcote brings solid recent form to the table, and she has experience of today's distance and going; however, carrying 129 lb against a field where she ranks seventh on our rating makes progress harder to sustain.
AI verdict

SR 88 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

8
Lady Plimsoll silks
Lady Plimsoll
Age 4 · 9-0
-33222
72
82
77
4
9-0
★★★☆☆
—
9/2 11/2 4/1
Winless in her last five starts despite a consistent string of placings, Lady Plimsoll has experience over today's trip and conditions but ranks eighth of ten on our figures, making her hard to fancy despite the fitness edge of a run just 12 days ago.
AI verdict

SR 82 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

9
Stellar Moment silks
Stellar Moment
Age 3 · 9-0
63212
79
87
76
3
9-0
★★★☆☆
—
5/1
Ranked bottom but one on our figures, Stellar Moment faces a stiff task here, yet she arrives in fair nick — a winner two starts back and runner-up last time out — and has run over today's trip and going before.
AI verdict

SR 87 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

10
Tatum silks
Tatum
Age 5 · 8-11
-75310
69
52
72
5
8-11
★★☆☆☆
—
16/1 FCST 14/1
Ranked bottom of the field on our figures and representing a trainer who has sent out just one winner from 25 runners in the last fortnight, Tatum is difficult to fancy despite winning two starts back and having run over today's distance and going before.
AI verdict

SR 52 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Ankara 16/1 open 15.00 18/1 open 17.00 16/1 16/1 16/1 16/1 18/1 Paddy Power
2 Denim And Diamonds 9/1 open 12.00 9/1 open 13.00 9/1 open 12.00 9/1 open 12.00 9/1 open 12.00 9/1 open 17.00 9/1 Bet365
3 Navy Waters 11/2 open 5.00 13/2 open 4.50 6/1 open 4.50 6/1 open 4.50 6/1 open 4.50 6/1 open 5.50 13/2 Paddy Power
4 Narlita 18/1 open 17.00 20/1 18/1 open 17.00 18/1 open 17.00 18/1 open 17.00 18/1 open 17.00 20/1 Paddy Power
5 Just Keep Flying 11/1 open 11.00 10/1 open 9.00 10/1 open 9.50 10/1 open 9.50 10/1 open 9.50 10/1 open 9.50 11/1 Bet365
6 Vanir 17/2 open 7.00 10/1 open 6.50 8/1 open 6.50 8/1 open 6.50 9/1 open 6.50 9/1 open 7.00 10/1 Paddy Power
7 Nellcote 3/1 10/3 open 3.75 3/1 open 3.75 3/1 open 3.75 3/1 open 3.75 3/1 10/3 Paddy Power
8 Lady Plimsoll 9/2 open 6.50 4/1 open 8.00 4/1 open 6.50 4/1 open 6.50 4/1 open 6.50 4/1 open 6.50 9/2 Bet365
9 Stellar Moment 5/1 open 6.50 5/1 5/1 5/1 5/1 5/1 open 6.50 5/1 Bet365
10 Tatum 16/1 14/1 16/1 16/1 16/1 14/1 open 29.00 16/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Stellar Moment

Speculative

Stellar Moment owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (48) and market confidence (77). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

5/1 John S O'Donoghue R. P. Whelan
71% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Nellcote

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

3/1 · Joseph Patrick O'Brien
✓ Value Signal

Narlita

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

18/1 · H Rogers
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

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Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
48 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +18.4 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence High conviction
77 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +16.9 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
38 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.6 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Speculative
48 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.8 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor High conviction
62 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +6.2 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
52 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.2 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 9. Stellar Moment
56.5 5/1
2 7. Nellcote
53.2 3/1
3 6. Vanir
53.0 17/2
4 8. Lady Plimsoll
52.5 9/2
5 3. Navy Waters
50.7 11/2
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Lady Plimsoll
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

7
Age 3 · 9-3
3/1
★★★☆☆ SR 88 🐾 —

SR 88 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

8
Age 4 · 9-0
9/2
★★★☆☆ SR 82 🐾 —

SR 82 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

9
Age 3 · 9-0
5/1
★★★☆☆ SR 87 🐾 —

SR 87 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Age 5 · 9-12
11/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 81 🐾 —

SR 81 suggests ability but 9/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Age 3 · 9-5
17/2
★★★☆☆ SR 86 🐾 —

SR 86 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 4 · 9-12
9/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 67 🐾 —

SR 67 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.

5
Age 4 · 9-6
11/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 79 🐾 —

SR 79 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

1
Age 4 · 10-0
16/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 66 🐾 —

SR 66 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

10
Age 5 · 8-11
16/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 52 🐾 —

SR 52 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Age 7 · 9-11
18/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 59 🐾 —

SR 59 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Lady Plimsoll
Confidence: Speculative

Lady Plimsoll (SR:82, 9/2) carries the lightest weight in the competitive range at 9-0 and has been backed in 25% since opening, the strongest market move in the field after Just Keep Flying. Her form string -33222 shows consistent placing at this class and DistFit:+ confirms she handles 1m4f-range trips, the most important credential in this longer-distance fillies' handicap. The 5lb mark rise (MarkMv:+5) is manageable given her consistency, and trainer M D O'Callaghan's 12% strike rate is solid. Nellcote is the danger as the highest SR in the field (88) on featherweight (9-3) but the market drift of 6% and unproven distance (DistFit:?) are concerns over this extended trip. Each-way alternative: Stellar Moment. Main danger: Nellcote — Nellcote carries the highest SR in the field (88) on the lightest weight of the main contenders (9-3) and is trained by the in-form Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard at 16% — if she gets the trip at DistFit:?, she wins.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Form string -33222 shows Lady Plimsoll has placed five times without winning; she has a pattern of finishing second or third but not converting, suggesting she may find a way to get beaten again toda…
  • Stellar Moment (SR:87) carries identical weight 9-0 with a superior speed rating, more recent winning form (63212 includes a win), and a younger 3yo allowance edge — a direct rival Lady Plimsoll must…
  • Reese Holohan (7lb claimer, 11% strike rate at 272 rides) is an inexperienced pilot in a competitive handicap where tactical decisions at the longer trip will matter; J P O'Brien's Nellcote gets the…
  • The 25% market move in looks significant but she is still co-third-favourite at 9/2, suggesting the market is not fully convinced; Nellcote drifted only 6% and remains clear market leader at 3/1 desp…
Shortlist Lady Plimsoll, Nellcote, Stellar Moment, Just Keep Flying
Each-way: Stellar Moment Danger: Nellcote

🗺 The Course Race conditions

1m4f194y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
10 Confirmed runners
Down Royal Track and setting