Roscommon 17:05 RESULTED
28 Sep 2026

Last Monday Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Handicap Steeplechase

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Handicap Steeplechase · 2m5f146y

Official Result

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Handicap Steeplechase

Confirmed
  1. Winner Ladies Well (IRE) Cian Quirke · A. Slattery
    7/2
  2. 5/2F
  3. 5/1
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Big race Sun 4 Oct Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe ParisLongchamp · 15:05

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13:30–17:00 · 7 races

Roscommon

13:35–17:40 · 8 races

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13:50–16:43 · 6 races

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16:22–20:30 · 9 races

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Settled
  • 10 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 5 days, 1 hour ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Nastya silks
Nastya
Age 7 · 11-12
1F-1PP
116
85
113
7
11-12
★☆☆☆☆
—
12/1 9/1 11/1
Nastya has won twice in her last five starts, with a victory three starts back boosting her claims, and she has experience over today's trip and going; the main concern is her trainer's poor recent strike-rate of just 5%.
AI verdict

SR 85 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 12/1.

2
Jolie Jewel silks
Jolie Jewel
Age 7 · 11-8
6-3263
112
105
110
7
11-8
★★★☆☆
—
7/2 32/17 10/3
Jolie Jewel has shown she can mix it at this level, finishing third last time out and a second three starts back, yet a sixth two starts back hints at inconsistency, and carrying 162 lb while yet to win in her last five outings are the checks against her here.
AI verdict

SR 105 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Beauforts Storm silks
Beauforts Storm
Age 7 · 11-6
72U744
110
76
108
7
11-6
★☆☆☆☆
—
25/1 10/1 22/1
Winless in her last six starts, Beauforts Storm nonetheless brings consistent recent form — fourth in each of her past two outings — and has run over today's going before, while 31 days between runs suggests she arrives fresh enough to build on that momentum carrying 160 lb.
AI verdict

SR 76 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

4
Bynx silks
Bynx
Age 8 · 11-6
-68480
110
70
111
8
11-6
★☆☆☆☆
—
22/1 16/1 22/1
Winless in her last five starts, Bynx nonetheless rates a serious threat here — ranked third in the field on our figures with an official mark of 110, she has experience over today's trip and going and returns fit on just eight days' rest; the concern is that her recent form has dipped sharply with an unplaced effort last time out.
AI verdict

SR 70 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.

5
Neon Diamond silks
Neon Diamond
Age 7 · 11-6
4255-P
110
71
109
7
11-6
★☆☆☆☆
—
33/1 14/1 33/1
Pulled up last time out and winless in her last five starts, Neon Diamond faces questions on fitness after 113 days off, though experience over today's trip and going offers some encouragement despite carrying 160 lb at an official mark of 110.
AI verdict

SR 71 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.

6
Ad Caelum silks
Ad Caelum
Age 7 · 10-12
315PP5
102
83
111
7
10-12
★☆☆☆☆
—
11/1 FCST 10/1
Ad Caelum returns fit on 17 days' rest, has experience of today's trip and going, and a rating of 111, second best of these, marks her out as a serious danger; the risk is that two pulled-up efforts in recent starts raise questions about her reliability.
AI verdict

SR 83 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 11/1.

7
Chosen Shant silks
Chosen Shant
Age 10 · 10-10
712516
100
96
96
10
10-10
★★★☆☆
—
17/2 7/2 8/1
Chosen Shant has won twice in her last six starts, including a win two starts back, but a sixth last time out and our rating of 96 ranking her eighth of ten make her hard to fancy despite the fitness edge of just eight days since that run.
AI verdict

SR 96 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

8
Ladies Well silks
Ladies Well
Age 6 · 10-8
2U1214
98
102
89
6
10-8
★★★☆☆
—
3/1 3/1 11/4
Ladies Well rates well below her official mark on our figures and ranks last among the ten here, making her hard to fancy at the weights, though she does bring distance and going experience and showed she retains ability with a win two starts back.
AI verdict

SR 102 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

9
Shannon Bank silks
Shannon Bank
Age 7 · 10-7
P-717P
97
87
99
7
10-7
★★☆☆☆
—
10/1 10/1 9/1
Shannon Bank won three starts back but has pulled up in two of her last five starts, which tempers confidence; she has run over today's trip and going, carries 147 lb off a mark of 97, and returns after 39 days away.
AI verdict

SR 87 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Miss Lia silks
Miss Lia
Age 6 · 10-0
P2-067
88
89
88
6
10-0
★★★☆☆
—
11/4 7/1 5/2
Winless in her last five starts and ranked last on our figures, Miss Lia faces a stiff ask here; she has experience of today's trip and conditions, and 50 days off may have freshened her, but her recent string of disappointing efforts makes her hard to fancy.
AI verdict

SR 89 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Nastya 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 10.00 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 11.00 11/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 12.00 12/1 Bet365
2 Jolie Jewel 7/2 open 3.25 10/3 open 2.88 7/2 open 3.00 7/2 open 3.00 4/1 open 3.00 7/2 open 3.50 4/1 William Hill
3 Beauforts Storm 25/1 open 13.00 25/1 open 11.00 25/1 open 12.00 25/1 open 12.00 22/1 open 12.00 25/1 open 17.00 25/1 Bet365
4 Bynx 22/1 open 17.00 25/1 open 17.00 22/1 open 17.00 22/1 open 17.00 22/1 open 17.00 22/1 open 29.00 25/1 Paddy Power
5 Neon Diamond 33/1 open 17.00 40/1 open 15.00 33/1 open 17.00 33/1 open 17.00 33/1 open 17.00 33/1 open 23.00 40/1 Paddy Power
6 Ad Caelum 11/1 open 13.00 14/1 open 11.00 11/1 11/1 10/1 open 12.00 11/1 open 11.00 14/1 Paddy Power
7 Chosen Shant 17/2 open 4.50 9/1 open 5.00 17/2 open 5.00 17/2 open 5.00 8/1 open 5.00 17/2 open 6.00 9/1 Paddy Power
8 Ladies Well 3/1 open 5.00 3/1 open 6.00 3/1 open 4.33 3/1 open 4.33 11/4 open 4.33 3/1 3/1 Bet365
9 Shannon Bank 10/1 open 15.00 10/1 open 13.00 10/1 open 12.00 10/1 open 12.00 9/1 open 12.00 10/1 10/1 Bet365
10 Miss Lia 11/4 open 13.00 11/4 open 11.00 11/4 open 11.00 11/4 open 11.00 5/2 open 11.00 11/4 open 8.00 11/4 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Ladies Well

Speculative

Ladies Well owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (57) and market confidence (86). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

3/1 A. Slattery Cian Quirke
66% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Jolie Jewel

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

7/2 · Brian M McMahon
✓ Value Signal

Neon Diamond

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

33/1 · Gordon Elliott
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

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Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
57 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +21.5 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
86 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +19.0 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
44 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.1 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Speculative
45 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.5 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
58 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.8 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
57 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.5 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 8. Ladies Well
58.1 3/1
2 2. Jolie Jewel
57.3 7/2
3 10. Miss Lia
55.2 11/4
4 7. Chosen Shant
53.9 17/2
5 9. Shannon Bank
50.6 10/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Ladies Well
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

10
Age 6 · 10-0
11/4
★★★☆☆ SR 89 🐾 —

SR 89 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

8
Age 6 · 10-8
3/1
★★★☆☆ SR 102 🐾 —

SR 102 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 7 · 11-8
7/2
★★★☆☆ SR 105 🐾 —

SR 105 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Age 10 · 10-10
17/2
★★★☆☆ SR 96 🐾 —

SR 96 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

9
Age 7 · 10-7
10/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 87 🐾 —

SR 87 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Age 7 · 10-12
11/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 83 🐾 —

SR 83 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 11/1.

1
Age 7 · 11-12
12/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 85 🐾 —

SR 85 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 12/1.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Ladies Well
Confidence: Speculative

Ladies Well (SR:102, 10/3, Wgt:10-8) is the second-highest rated horse in the field and carries a weight advantage over Jolie Jewel (SR:105, 11-8) — a 14lb pull that more than compensates for the 3-point SR difference. Crucially, Ladies Well has steamed in the market by 13%, signalling informed money, while Jolie Jewel has drifted 11% — the market is actively switching between the two top-rated runners and landing on Ladies Well. GoingFit:+ confirms she handles today's good ground, her recent form 2U1214 shows consistent competitiveness including a win last time out (form read right-to-left: 4th most recent, then 1st, 2nd, U, 2nd), and at just 6 years old she is the youngest and likely most progressive runner in the field. A. Slattery's 11% strike rate and the market support together make this a compelling case. Each-way alternative: Miss Lia. Main danger: Jolie Jewel — Jolie Jewel holds the highest SR in the field at 105 and a recent form line of 3263 shows consistent placing — if the drift is simply market noise rather than a genuine negative signal, her rating edge could tell over this trip.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Ladies Well's HG code is 't' (turf/tight track specialist?), yet her going fitness marker raises doubt — her best form may not be on good ground at Roscommon specifically.
  • Form read correctly (left=oldest): 2,U,1,2,1,4 — the most recent run was a 4th, meaning she did NOT win last time out; the primary analyst misread the form string, undermining a key pillar of the cas…
  • Jockey Cian Quirke has only a 9% strike rate (650 rides) and trainer A. Slattery 11% — a combined profile that is well below the field's standout partnership of de Bromhead/O'Keeffe and Elliott/Ewing…
  • Chosen Shant (SR:96, 5/1) had only 8 days since last run and is drifting just 20% while still fresh, posing a live pace/weight threat at 10-10 against Ladies Well's 10-8 with superior recent race fit…
Shortlist Ladies Well, Jolie Jewel, Miss Lia, Shannon Bank
Each-way: Miss Lia Danger: Jolie Jewel

🗺 The Course Race conditions

2m5f146y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
10 Confirmed runners
Roscommon Track and setting