Carry The Flag shaped with promise when second last time out and gets the trip having run over today's distance before, but a seventh three starts back and only one win in his last six starts suggest he blows hot and cold, and 129 lb from stall 12 adds to the query.
Form last 6291742
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
113SR101RPR112OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 113 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
El Floridita shaped well for a second three starts back and arrives fit on 20 days' rest, carrying 129 lb from stall 3 with experience of both today's trip and going; the risk is that his two most recent starts have yielded only a sixth and a fifth.
Form last 651256
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
81SR103RPR96OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 81 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Final Objective arrives here in fine fettle, placed last time out and a winner two starts back, bringing distance and going experience to the table; the weight of 129 lb from stall 8 is the one factor connections will need to overcome.
Form last 627412
★AI Rating★★★★☆
117SR105RPR107OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Favourable weight of 9-3 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Flann Sunna has won twice in his last three starts but our figures rank him ninth of twelve in this field, and 43 days off the track adds a fitness query; he has run over today's trip and draws stall two, but the weight of 129 lb makes this a stiff ask.
Form last 6115
★AI Rating★★★★☆
106SR95RPR99OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Favourable weight of 9-3 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Boasts a win and a second in recent starts but has been unplaced last time out, so he arrives needing to bounce back; has run over today's trip and going before, and 129 lb from stall 5 gives punters plenty to weigh up.
Form last 671240
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
74SR97RPR90OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 74 suggests ability but 125/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Sale Shark wins on his latest start and was a winner five starts back, with experience over today's trip and going and a timely 20-day freshener working in his favour; at 129 lb from stall one, he is the one to beat.
Form last 615541
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
106SR106RPR105OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 106 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Tokaido has winning form in recent starts — four wins in his last six — but he ranks bottom of the field on our figures and that unplaced effort last time out is the harder angle to ignore; he has run over today's trip and going, and 22 days gives him a fair break, but he faces a stiff task.
Form last 6211110
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
83SR79RPR—OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 83 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Crownbreaker has experience of today's distance and going, and a win three starts back shows she can find the line, but seventh last time out and an unplaced run two starts back are harder to ignore; 126 lb from stall 10 adds further test for a filly ranked midfield on ratings.
Form last 6325107
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
89SR100RPR97OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 89 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked tenth of twelve on our figures, Fast Track is hard to fancy at these weights despite a lively recent profile that includes a win and three runner-up finishes in her last six starts; she has run over today's trip before and returns on a reasonable 28-day break, but the rating gap to the field leaders is a significant obstacle.
Form last 6320122
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
78SR95RPR90OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 78 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked 11 of 12 on our figures, In The Black faces a stiff task, though she does bring a win two starts back and has run over today's trip and going before; that eighth last time out is hard to ignore.
Form last 618
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
68SR89RPR86OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 68 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Pershaada won two starts back and has experience of both today's trip and going, leaving her well-placed to threaten from stall four off 126 lb; the main concern is her unplaced effort last time out.
Form last 6321410
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
112SR104RPR106OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 112 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Final Objective owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (65) and market confidence (87). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
11/4Hamad Al JehaniJames Doyle
65%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Flann Sunna
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
3/1 · Simon & Ed Crisford✓ Value Signal
Fast Track
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
33/1 · Andrew Balding◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Final Objective (SR:117, 10/3) leads the field on Saturday Rating and has steamed in 42% from opening — the most aggressive market move in the race — with James Doyle (21% career strike rate) in the saddle for a yard (Hamad Al Jehani, 20% SR) that clearly fancies this. The DistFit:+ confirms proven ability at the 5f trip, the form string 27412 shows a last-time-out second that keeps the horse competitive at Group 2 level, and the MarkMv:+7 is a manageable rise that the SR comfortably absorbs. Carry The Flag (SR:113) steamed 33% and is the obvious danger, but Final Objective's superior SR edge and bigger market move gives it the nod.
Each-way alternative: Carry The Flag.
Main danger: Carry The Flag — Carry The Flag (SR:113, 9/2) has steamed in 33% with Ryan Moore (24% career SR) aboard for Aidan O'Brien, carries DistFit:+ at this 5f trip, and a form string of 291742 shows the ability to mix it at this level — only 4 SR points behind the selection and with the most powerful trainer-jockey combination in the race.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Carry The Flag pairs a higher MarkMv (+11 vs +7) with Ryan Moore (24% SR) and AP O'Brien (23% SR) — a superior trainer-jockey combination that outguns Doyle/Al Jehani on proven Group-level firepower.
Final Objective's form string 27412 includes a '0' predecessor omitted from recent runs and a last-time-out second; the horse has not won in its last four starts, a concern at a short price in Group…
Flann Sunna (4/1, William Buick 25% SR, Crisford 20% SR) arrives on a 15112 arc of form showing two wins in three, and its 43-day absence from a yard with a sharp freshener record could mean peak fit…
Pershaada drifted 97% out to 5/1, suggesting significant market intelligence against the wider market's confidence — if that drift reflects inside knowledge of an issue, it narrows the perceived valu…
ShortlistFinal Objective, Carry The Flag, Flann Sunna, Pershaada