Merrimack won three starts back but has posted back-to-back fourths since, and our figures rank him eighth of ten in this field. He has run over today's trip and going, and 18 days since his last run suggests he is fit, but the weight of 138 lb adds little appeal at these odds.
Form last 6823144
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
61SR72RPR74OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 61 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Moe's Legacy shaped with promise when second three starts back and steps up as a lively threat here, with experience over today's trip and going working in her favour off a quick seven-day turnaround; the concern is that she has been winless in her last six starts.
Form last 6425274
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
69SR77RPR74OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Third two starts back and a winner three starts ago, On Edge brings solid recent form into this, and his experience over today's trip and going counts in his favour; however, that seventh last time out and 137 lb to carry are clear negatives to weigh up.
Form last 618-137
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
71SR77RPR73OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 71 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Havana Smile shaped with plenty of promise when third last time out, returning after just 13 days, and he has experience of both today's trip and going; the main risk is whether he can reproduce that level from stall ten carrying 137 lb.
Form last 6-71653
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
80SR77RPR74OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Third last time out after winning two starts back, Isle Of Lismore arrives on a sharp 15-day turnaround in fine heart, and his experience over today's trip and going is a clear asset; carrying 134 lb from stall one, he looks the one to side with.
Form last 63-5413
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
74SR76RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 74 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Ranked top of the field on our ratings, Cayman Tai has run over today's trip and going and arrives fit on just 11 days' rest, yet to score in his last six starts and with a trainer running at only 4% over the past fortnight, that stable dip is the primary concern.
Form last 6935784
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
71SR77RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 71 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Always Perfect won last time out and also took a race three starts back, which counts in her favour, but ranked ninth of ten on our figures she faces a stiff ask here, and 132 lb is no help either.
Form last 6533141
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
84SR72RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 84 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in her last six starts and ranked bottom of the field on our figures, Hint Of Humour faces a stiff task from stall three carrying 131 lb, though she has run over today's trip and going before and placed four times in recent starts.
Form last 6722533
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
74SR71RPR67OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 74 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last six starts, Lazzar does at least bring distance and going experience to the table and has shaped with some promise — a second four starts back offset by a sixth two starts back — but a rating of 75 and 128 lb from stall six leave him facing an uphill task from midfield ranking.
Form last 6942464
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
60SR75RPR64OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 60 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Always Perfect owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (47) and market confidence (87). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
11/4Charlie FellowesPaddy Bradley
73%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Adalida
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
5/1 · Stuart Williams✓ Value Signal
Lazzar
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
20/1 · Charlie Wallis◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Adalida (SR:79, 7/1, 9-10) combines the strongest convergence of signals in this field: a 24% market shortening is the biggest steam in the race and commands serious attention, Stuart Williams has clearly designated her the yard's #1 over stablemate Merrimack (senior jockey Marco Ghiani booked at 16% career SR vs. apprentice Chloe Lyons), and she drops a class off a form line reading 102125 — the recent '5' followed by a '2' and '1' shows she is in a purple patch. At 9-10 she carries one of the lighter weights in the field, a meaningful advantage over top-weights Merrimack and Moe's Legacy on 9-12. The class drop from her most recent outing provides additional confidence, and while distance and going fits are moderate rather than proven, the combination of market money, jockey booking, and class relief makes her the standout selection.
Each-way alternative: Havana Smile.
Main danger: Havana Smile — Havana Smile (SR:80, 6/1) has steamed in 18%, holds an excellent course record of W1P3 at Sandown, and drops a class — a compelling combination that makes her the most credible threat to Adalida on the day.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Havana Smile has a superior SR of 80 (vs Adalida's 79), is shortening at 18% into 6/1, and boasts a course record of W1P3 at Sandown — Adalida has no course form at all.
Always Perfect has the highest SR in the field at 84 and recent form 533141 showing a win last time out; despite drifting slightly, that raw rating superiority is a concrete threat at 11/4.
Adalida's form string 102125 reads right-to-left as most recent first — her last run was a '5' (likely a poor finish), not the purple patch suggested; the analyst's reading of the sequence appears re…
Distance and going fits are both described as 'moderate rather than proven' — at Sandown's unique track configuration, a horse without a course record faces genuine uncertainty against Havana Smile's…
ShortlistAdalida, Havana Smile, Hint Of Humour, Always Perfect