Caballo De Mar arrives on the back of a fourth last time out, but a win three starts back underlines his ability, and experience over today's trip and going suits; our top-rated runner here at 116, he looks the one to beat off 138 lb with 21 days between runs.
Form last 6-22104
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
119SR117RPR115OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 119 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last five starts, Ascending nonetheless catches the eye on his going experience and an encouraging our-rating edge of 105 that marks him out as a leading danger here; the concern is a string of moderate finishes that leaves his winning thread hard to locate.
Form last 66-7064
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
93SR105RPR99OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 93 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Showed well with a runner-up finish last time out, and he has run over today's trip before, but two below-par efforts in his last three starts overall temper expectations; 42 days off adds a fitness query for this gelding carrying 133 lb.
Form last 6011682
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
89SR101RPR102OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 89 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Beylerbeyi brings strong fitness, having run just 20 days ago, and has experience of today's trip and conditions, with his rating of 104 suggesting he holds solid claims in this field; the concern is that he has been winless in his last six starts, with a fifth last time out his most recent return.
Form last 6360845
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
98SR104RPR101OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 98 suggests ability but 4/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Rated 115 by us against an official mark of 107 suggests Epic Poet is well treated, and he has going experience to call on having run over this ground before; the risk is that he has been winless in his last six starts, and a return to form is required.
Form last 6534650
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
93SR115RPR107OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 93 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last three starts and ranked sixth of seven on our figures, Peace Belle faces a stiff task here; the most recent of those efforts was a second last time out, and going experience on today's surface offers at least some encouragement.
Form last 6442
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
71SR99RPR102OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 71 suggests ability but 66/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winday won last time out but that victory sits against a backdrop of an unplaced run two starts back, and his rating of 86 leaves him ranked bottom of the seven runners here, making him hard to fancy despite the recent winning form.
Form last 6730-1
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
102SR86RPR97OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 102 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Caballo De Mar owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (66) and market confidence (93). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
13/8George ScottOisin Murphy
71%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Winday
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
7/2 · Emmet Mullins✓ Value Signal
Peace Belle
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
66/1 · Jennie Candlish◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Caballo De Mar (SR 119, 5/4) is unambiguously the class leader in this field — with an SR 17 points clear of the next-best Winday (SR 102) and 21 points clear of Beylerbeyi (SR 98). The 25% market support (steaming in hard) with Oisin Murphy booked from a 22%-strike-rate partnership under George Scott (20%) signals strong stable confidence. Good to Soft going is confirmed as a positive (GoingFit:+), and carrying 9-12 as top-weight is manageable given the SR gap is so pronounced — this is not a competitive handicap where weight equalises the field. The most recent form figure of 4 followed by the market move suggests the yard is expecting a forward showing here.
Each-way alternative: Winday.
Main danger: Winday — Winday (SR 102, 4/1) has steamed in 33% with William Buick — a 25%-strike-rate jockey — booked, carries a featherweight 8-10 against Caballo De Mar's 9-12, and a last-run win (Form:730-1) at three years old suggests a progressive, still-improving profile that could handle the class rise better than the raw SR implies.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Form reads -22104: the horse has finished 4th most recently and has two seconds and two wins in the last five, but the '0' (last) just two runs ago at a similar level raises a durability question ove…
Winday (SR 102, 4/1) carries only 8-10 — a full 16lb less than Caballo De Mar's 9-12 — and arrives fresh off a win 15 days ago with William Buick (25% strike rate) booked and steaming in 33%; the wei…
Beylerbeyi has a proven Course:W2P3 record at Doncaster specifically, is also steaming in (65%) with Clifford Lee, and gets in 19lb lighter — course form on this track is a concrete edge Caballo De M…
At 5/4, the price leaves almost no margin for error; the market move is flat (MarkMv:=) suggesting no fresh money beyond what was already priced in, while rivals Winday and Beylerbeyi are both shorte…
ShortlistCaballo De Mar, Winday, Beylerbeyi, Ascending