Obito was a winner two starts back and shaped well with a third last time out, showing his form is in good order; he has run over today's trip and going before, and from stall two carrying 143 lb, he is the one to beat on his rating here.
Form last 6825513
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
89SR94RPR86OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 89 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Supplicate arrives on the back of four wins in her last five starts and has experience of today's trip and conditions, making her a serious threat at 138 lb from stall three — the slight query is whether 33 days between runs leaves her short of peak sharpness.
Form last 651-111
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
93SR84RPR87OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 93 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Pol Roger shaped with plenty of promise when second last time out, and a winner two starts back, suggesting he retains his form well; he has experience over today's trip and going, and 134 lb is the chief query.
Form last 6823412
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
80SR81RPR77OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Magical Merlot arrives on the back of a win last time out, has experience of today's distance and going, and his rating of 85 makes him a clear danger from stall five — the risk is that four of his last six starts have yielded only minor returns.
Form last 6534341
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
88SR85RPR78OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 88 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last three starts and ranked bottom of the field on our figures, League of Justice looks up against it here, though he returns on a quick turnaround, has experience of today's going, and that third last time out shows he can at least hit the frame.
Form last 6643
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
55SR60RPR75OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 55 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Winless in his last six starts, Panelli has posted back-to-back sevenths of late, though a brace of seconds and two fourths earlier in that sequence show he can be competitive; going experience helps, but he faces a stiff ask off 123 lb to reverse that recent slide.
Form last 6224477
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
46SR77RPR66OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 46 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.
Winless in her last five starts and ranked sixth of seven on our figures, Enamorus faces a stiff task, with her trainer in poor nick at 5% over the past 14 days; a third one start back offers slim hope, and she does have experience over today's trip and going.
Form last 63-5938
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
48SR75RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 48 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Magical Merlot owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (49) and market confidence (87). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
11/4Ed DunlopJason Hart
65%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Supplicate
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
6/5 · Roger Varian✓ Value Signal
Enamorus
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
40/1 · Hugo Palmer◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Supplicate (SR 93, 6/4) is the clear class leader in this field, carrying 9-12 which is a meaningful weight advantage over Obito (SR 89, 10-3) — 5lb lighter despite a near-equivalent ability level. The form string 51-111 reads as a horse in a purple patch, with three consecutive wins at the same class making this the strongest recent form in the race. Roger Varian's 20% career strike rate is the best of any trainer represented, and Jack Mitchell (16%) is a reliable booking. The 18% market drift is the one concern and cannot be ignored — but with GoingFit:? (unproven rather than poor on good ground) and DistFit:+, the drift is more likely nervousness about the unknown going bucket than a genuine stable signal, and the weight and form credentials override it.
Each-way alternative: Magical Merlot.
Main danger: Obito — Obito (SR 89, 11/4) has steamed in 14% in the market, carries proven course form (W0P2 at Redcar) and a confirmed distance record (DistFit:+), giving it the strongest course-and-distance profile in the field — Tudhope's 18% strike rate adds further weight to the market confidence despite the 10-3 burden.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
18% market drift is a concrete stable signal — Varian runners drifting this sharply at a track like Redcar on a big-field Saturday rarely win; the money has gone to Obito (in 14%) and Magical Merlot…
GoingFit:? means Supplicate's three-timer was built on different ground conditions; if today's going is faster or softer than those wins, the SR 93 rating may not translate.
33-day absence is the longest freshen-up in the field; Obito (16 days) and Magical Merlot (20 days) are sharper in their work cycle, and Varian's 3yo handicappers can need a race after a month off.
Magical Merlot (SR 88, 9-3) is only 5lb below Supplicate in the weights on a MarkMv of just +3, suggesting the handicapper has been more lenient with her; she is also market-backed and could be the u…