Wolverhampton (AW) 16:59 RESULTED
Class 5 15 Sep 2026

Tuesday 15 September Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com "Confined" Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D, Which Have Run No More Than Twice) (Div I) (GBB Race)

Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com "Confined" Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D, Which Have Run No More Than Twice) (Div I) (GBB Race) · 6f20y

Official Result

Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com "Confined" Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D, Which Have Run No More Than Twice) (Div I) (GBB Race)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Thames Waterman (GB) Finley Marsh · Richard Hughes
    1/9F
  2. 10/1
  3. 40/1
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Wolverhampton (AW)

16:28–20:30 · 9 races

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Settled
  • 11 declared
  • 0 picked
  • 1 NR
Saturday Draw Updated 6 days, 11 hours ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
?
Amorance silks
Amorance Non-Runner
Age 2 · 8-13
2
8-13
SP
1
Thames Waterman silks
Thames Waterman
Age 2 · 9-11
1
154
2
9-11
1/5 4/7 1/7
SR 154 backed by market confidence at 1/2 — a genuine contender.
AI verdict

SR 154 backed by market confidence at 1/2 — a genuine contender.

2
Darjeel silks
Darjeel
Age 3 · 9-4
5
148
3
9-4
10/3 5/2 3/1
SR 148 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
AI verdict

SR 148 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Lowcountry silks
Lowcountry
Age 2 · 9-4
0
120
2
9-4
40/1 50/1 28/1
SR 120 suggests ability but 80/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 120 suggests ability but 80/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Without Fail silks
Without Fail
Age 2 · 9-4
00
121
2
9-4
66/1 80/1 40/1
SR 121 suggests ability but 125/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 121 suggests ability but 125/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Christmas Is Comin silks
Christmas Is Comin
Age 2 · 9-1
5
140
2
9-1
10/1 FCST 8/1
SR 140 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
AI verdict

SR 140 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Cosmocrat silks
Cosmocrat
Age 2 · 9-1
121
2
9-1
50/1 FCST 40/1
SR 121 suggests ability but 66/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 121 suggests ability but 66/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Redrosecastana silks
Redrosecastana
Age 2 · 9-1
97
124
2
9-1
200/1 150/1 125/1
SR 124 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
AI verdict

SR 124 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

8
Taranis silks
Taranis
Age 2 · 9-1
7
124
2
9-1
33/1 20/1 22/1
SR 124 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 124 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Kitty Rey silks
Kitty Rey
Age 2 · 8-13
138
2
8-13
12/1 7/1 8/1
SR 138 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
AI verdict

SR 138 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

11
Ghazalia silks
Ghazalia
Age 2 · 8-10
4
126
2
8-10
20/1 20/1 14/1
SR 126 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
AI verdict

SR 126 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

12
Picnic Princess silks
Picnic Princess
Age 2 · 8-10
5
139
2
8-10
16/1 15/2 12/1
SR 139 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
AI verdict

SR 139 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
0 Amorance
1 Thames Waterman 1/5 open 2.00 1/5 open 1.57 1/7 open 1.62 1/7 open 1.67 1/7 open 1.67 2/11 open 1.67 1/5 Bet365
2 Darjeel 10/3 open 3.50 10/3 open 3.75 3/1 open 3.75 3/1 open 3.75 10/3 open 3.75 3/1 open 3.50 10/3 Bet365
3 Lowcountry 40/1 open 51.00 33/1 open 67.00 33/1 open 51.00 33/1 open 51.00 40/1 open 51.00 28/1 open 51.00 40/1 Bet365
4 Without Fail 66/1 open 101.00 50/1 open 81.00 40/1 open 81.00 40/1 open 81.00 50/1 open 81.00 40/1 open 101.00 66/1 Bet365
5 Christmas Is Comin 10/1 open 10.00 17/2 open 9.00 8/1 8/1 9/1 open 9.00 8/1 10/1 Bet365
6 Cosmocrat 50/1 open 41.00 40/1 open 51.00 40/1 40/1 40/1 40/1 50/1 Bet365
7 Redrosecastana 200/1 open 151.00 150/1 open 201.00 150/1 open 201.00 150/1 open 201.00 150/1 open 201.00 125/1 open 201.00 200/1 Bet365
8 Taranis 33/1 open 21.00 25/1 open 41.00 22/1 open 34.00 22/1 open 34.00 28/1 open 34.00 22/1 open 34.00 33/1 Bet365
10 Kitty Rey 12/1 open 8.00 9/1 open 9.00 17/2 open 8.50 17/2 open 8.50 9/1 open 8.50 8/1 12/1 Bet365
11 Ghazalia 20/1 18/1 open 21.00 16/1 open 21.00 16/1 open 21.00 18/1 open 21.00 14/1 open 21.00 20/1 Bet365
12 Picnic Princess 16/1 open 8.50 12/1 open 17.00 12/1 12/1 open 15.00 14/1 open 13.00 12/1 16/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Thames Waterman

High conviction

Thames Waterman owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (86) and market confidence (99). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

1/5 Richard Hughes Finley Marsh
80% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Darjeel

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

10/3 · Richard Hannon
✓ Value Signal

Taranis

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

33/1 · Eve Johnson Houghton
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Dominant
86 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +32.5 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
99 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +21.8 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Speculative
59 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.8 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Speculative
45 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.5 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
52 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.2 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Live signal
62 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +5.0 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 1. Thames Waterman
75.0 1/5
2 2. Darjeel
68.5 10/3
3 5. Christmas Is Comin
66.3 10/1
4 10. Kitty Rey
62.4 12/1
5 12. Picnic Princess
61.3 16/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Thames Waterman
Medium

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

1
Age 2 · 9-11
1/5
★★★★☆ SR 154 🐾

SR 154 backed by market confidence at 1/2 — a genuine contender.

2
Age 3 · 9-4
10/3
★★★☆☆ SR 148 🐾

SR 148 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Age 2 · 9-1
10/1
★★★☆☆ SR 140 🐾

SR 140 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

10
Age 2 · 8-13
12/1
★★★☆☆ SR 138 🐾

SR 138 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

12
Age 2 · 8-10
16/1
★★★☆☆ SR 139 🐾

SR 139 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

11
Age 2 · 8-10
20/1
★★★☆☆ SR 126 🐾

SR 126 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Thames Waterman
Confidence: Medium

Thames Waterman (SR 154, 1/2) is a class apart in this field — a 6-point SR edge over the next best Darjeel (SR 148) and a 14-point gap on the third-rated runner. Already a winner at Wolverhampton (Course:W1P1) which is a significant advantage on this specialist AW track, and the market has continued to shorten, now in 14% from opening. At age 2 carrying 9-11 with a clean win on the board and proven course form, the evidence across SR, market confidence, and course record all point the same direction. The 158-day break is the one note of caution, but Richard Hughes at 15% strike rate with a 14% market move suggests connections are satisfied with the prep. Each-way alternative: Darjeel. Main danger: Darjeel — Darjeel (SR 148, 10/3) is dropping a class, carries a 7lb weight advantage over Thames Waterman at 9-4 vs 9-11, and Sean Levey's booking at 13% career strike rate is reliable — though the 15% market drift is a concern that needs explaining away.

Case against 4 clamped
  • 158-day absence is a significant fitness concern for a 2yo — juveniles can lose condition and sharpness quickly, and this horse has had over 5 months off with just one race under its belt.
  • Darjeel (SR 148, 3yo) has raced just 20 days ago and carries 7lb less weight — the age/weight allowance combined with race-fit advantage could bridge a 6-point SR gap on the night.
  • Jockey Finley Marsh's 14% strike rate is modest; at odds of 1/2, any pilot error or slow break on this sharp Wolverhampton track is magnified with zero margin for error at these odds.
  • The 9-11 weight burden is notably heavy for a 2yo in a mixed-age field — Thames Waterman concedes 7lb to the next-best-rated runner, a meaningful penalty when returning from a long break.
Shortlist Thames Waterman, Darjeel, Christmas Is Comin
Each-way: Darjeel Danger: Darjeel

🗺 The Course Class 5

6f20y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
11 Confirmed runners
Wolverhampton (AW) Track and setting
Class 5 Race grade