Winless in her last five starts, Quebec nevertheless rates a serious threat here off an official mark of 95, with experience over today's trip and going, a fifth last time out just 22 days ago suggesting she stays fit — the risk is that another top-five finish may again be the ceiling.
Form last 638-805
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
77SR98RPR95OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 77 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 12/1.
Back-to-back wins make Suzie Songs the one to beat here, and she has experience of both today's trip and going to draw on; carrying 138 lb from stall eight is the one query, but her recent form is the strongest in the field.
Form last 67-0411
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
99SR103RPR98OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 99 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Chica Guerrera was a winner three starts back and returned to form with a second last time out, showing she retains ability, though the 38-day break and 136 lb to carry are questions she must answer, even if she has run over today's distance and going before.
Form last 6243102
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
76SR91RPR91OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 76 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.
Winless in her last five starts, Aviatrice does offer encouragement with a second and a third in recent outings, though her eighth last time out on a 35-day break gives pause; she has run over today's trip and going before and carries 135 lb from stall five.
Form last 6-30328
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
91SR97RPR90OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 91 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Ranked second of 19 on our rating and carrying 134 lb from stall 19, Tahcawin arrives with distance and going experience to call on after 29 days off, and a third four starts back hints at ability — the concern is she has been winless in her last six starts.
Form last 6523595
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
70SR99RPR94OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 70 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.
Placed second three starts back yet winless in her last six, Pink Oxalis arrives fit on 23 days' rest with experience over today's distance and going in her favour, though 131 lb from stall 18 gives connections something to ponder.
Form last 6356256
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
79SR92RPR86OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 79 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Killashee Warrior showed she can win in recent starts, but a seventh and eighth in her last two runs are concerning, and 103 days off the track adds uncertainty; she has run over today's trip and going, and 129 lb from stall three makes this a tough ask.
Form last 641-478
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
87SR96RPR89OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 87 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Electric Beauty won last time out and has experience of today's distance and going, but she steps back out after 93 days off the track and has been placed in four of her last six starts, with just one win in her last six.
Form last 6204321
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
81SR87RPR82OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 81 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last six starts, Mallavelly does at least show a third three starts back and a second four starts back to suggest she retains ability, though her two most recent efforts — seventh and sixth — are harder to ignore; she has experience over today's trip and going, and breaks from stall two carrying 126 lb.
Form last 6072367
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
59SR88RPR81OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 59 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ran over today's trip and going before, and that winning effort two starts back shows she has ability, but seventh last time out is a concern and a trainer who has drawn a blank in 25 recent attempts makes confidence hard to summon.
Form last 622-617
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
63SR83RPR85OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 63 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Mayflower has run over today's trip and going, and at a rating of 98 she looks notably well-treated on her official mark of 84, making her a genuine threat despite being winless in her last five starts — the risk is that her recent finishes suggest she may find a way to underperform again.
Form last 6-66574
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
75SR98RPR84OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 75 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.
Thrifty Of Digby shaped well with a third two starts back and a second last time out, showing she retains form, though the pulled up run three starts back is a blot; she has run over today's distance and going before, and 124 lb from stall 14 makes life no easier.
Form last 6811P32
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
79SR85RPR79OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 79 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked 14 of 19 on our figures, Rebel Wave faces a stiff ask against this field, though her recent form reads well with back-to-back wins and she has experience of today's trip and going, drawing some encouragement from stall one after 36 days off.
Form last 656211
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
90SR81RPR82OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 90 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Ranked well down the field on our figures, Blue Blue Moon faces a stiff task against 18 rivals, though she does bring a win last time out and experience of today's distance and going into the equation.
Form last 65-751
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
79SR81RPR80OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 79 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Marmeladova has managed just one win in her last six starts, with unplaced efforts bracketing a fifth and sixth, and ranked 18 of 19 on our figures she faces a stiff task here; she does return on a quick turnaround with distance and going experience to her name, but that feels a thin case.
Form last 6210650
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
50SR79RPR74OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 50 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Ranked bottom of the field on our figures, Bella Colombia faces a stiff ask, though she does arrive placed last time out, has run over today's trip and going, and her two wins in her last six starts show she can find the winner's enclosure.
Form last 6523113
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
75SR77RPR73OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 75 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked 17 of 19 on our figures, Tachos faces a stiff ask against this field, and a speed rating of 75 leaves her with plenty to find; that said, she did win last time out and has experience over today's trip and going.
Form last 6690531
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
65SR79RPR72OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 65 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last six starts and ranked 16 of 19 on our figures, Anvika makes little appeal, though she steps back up with distance and going experience and a third three starts back offers a sliver of encouragement heading into this off draw 17.
Form last 6003365
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
66SR81RPR71OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 66 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Rebel Wave owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (50) and market confidence (72). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
6/1W McCreeryBen Coen
64%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Aviatrice
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
9/2 · David Marnane✓ Value Signal
Tahcawin
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
28/1 · Joseph G Murphy◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Rebel Wave (SR:90, 11/2) is the field's second-highest SR and arrives on the back of a sharp 5-6-2-1-1 form sequence — two consecutive wins — confirming peak form. DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ mean both today's mile trip and good ground are confirmed positives, and carrying just 8-10 gives a significant weight advantage over top-rated Suzie Songs (9-12) and Aviatrice (9-9). The McCreery yard runs Bella Colombia as a clear second string (lower SR, drifting, beaten Stable:1 flag), confirming Rebel Wave is the yard's #1 hope. The market drift of 22% is the main concern, but with MarkMv:+3 (only marginally higher than last win mark), the handicapper has not punished these back-to-back wins harshly enough to negate the SR and weight edge.
Each-way alternative: Aviatrice.
Main danger: Suzie Songs — Suzie Songs (SR:99, the field's top-rated runner) has DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ and Colin Keane aboard — the drift of 16% is notable but the SR advantage over all rivals is real and a return to form after a 7-0-4-1-1 sequence including two recent wins makes her the biggest threat to Rebel Wave.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
A 22% market drift on a horse that won its last two is a red flag — the market is actively fading Rebel Wave despite the positive form, suggesting inside information or a workout concern.
Suzie Songs (SR:99, Stable:1, Colin Keane) is the field's top-rated horse, has won her last two (form 7-0411) and has the leading trainer/jockey combo — Rebel Wave's SR of 90 is materially outclassed…
Trainer W. McCreery has an 8% strike rate and is running a dual-entry (Bella Colombia), which dilutes yard focus despite the Stable:1 flag; Rebel Wave has been 36 days off and showed a drift, not a s…
Killashee Warrior (SR:87) has been heavily backed in at 34% with Oisin Murphy aboard — that sharp market move into 11/1 from a top jockey represents a serious unseen threat to Rebel Wave's position.