Southwell (AW) 20:30 RESULTED
Class 5 3 Oct 2026

Today Bettingsites.co.uk Betting Sites Reviewed Fillies' Handicap Stakes

Bettingsites.co.uk Betting Sites Reviewed Fillies' Handicap Stakes · 1m6f21y

Official Result

Bettingsites.co.uk Betting Sites Reviewed Fillies' Handicap Stakes

Confirmed
  1. Winner Blue Tulip (IRE) Jack Doughty · William Muir & Chris Grassick
    6/5F
  2. Second Astrid (FR)
    13/2
  3. 10/1
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Settled
  • 5 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 42 minutes ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Shopaholic silks
Shopaholic
Age 4 · 10-2
792361
66
74
72
4
10-2
★★★☆☆
—
15/8 5/4 7/4
Fresh from a win last time out just 15 days ago, Shopaholic has run over today's trip and going before, and a third three starts back and a second four starts back show she can get involved. Carrying 142 lb off 66 is the one question, but this profile makes her our pick.
AI verdict

SR 74 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Thankyou Baroness silks
Thankyou Baroness
Age 5 · 10-1
48-068
65
60
73
5
10-1
★★☆☆☆
—
6/1 15/2 5/1
Winless in her last five and an eighth last time out, but Thankyou Baroness has run on today's going, returns after 23 days and is top of our ratings on 73 against an official 65. The risk is her form: a fourth five starts back is her best recent showing.
AI verdict

SR 60 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Astrid silks
Astrid
Age 3 · 9-9
732
65
62
57
3
9-9
★★★☆☆
—
9/2 10/3 4/1
Astrid is hard to fancy as our bottom-ranked runner of five, yet she arrives in decent heart, second last time out and third two starts back, though still without a win. She has run on today's going, but 135 lb is a big burden off 65.
AI verdict

SR 62 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Blue Tulip silks
Blue Tulip
Age 3 · 9-2
566132
58
74
64
3
9-2
★★★★☆
—
13/8 31/19 5/4
Blue Tulip comes in sound form, second last time out, a third two starts back and a winner three starts back, and she has run over today's trip and going before. The main risk is a 33-day break, while our rating of 64 ranks her fourth of five.
AI verdict

Favourable weight of 9-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.

5
Kindly Queen silks
Kindly Queen
Age 3 · 9-2
253979
58
43
69
3
9-2
★☆☆☆☆
—
28/1
Kindly Queen has run over today's trip and on this going, and her 69 rating ranks third of five; a third four starts back and a second six starts back show she can go close. The risk is her form of late, with a ninth last time out and winless in her last six.
AI verdict

SR 43 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Shopaholic 15/8 open 2.25 2/1 open 2.38 2/1 open 2.38 2/1 open 2.38 7/4 open 2.38 15/8 open 2.25 2/1 Paddy Power
2 Thankyou Baroness 6/1 open 26.00 5/1 open 8.50 11/2 open 9.00 11/2 open 9.00 11/2 open 9.00 11/2 open 9.50 6/1 Bet365
3 Astrid 9/2 open 4.33 4/1 4/1 open 4.50 9/2 open 4.50 9/2 open 4.50 4/1 open 4.50 9/2 Bet365
4 Blue Tulip 13/8 6/4 open 2.63 6/4 open 2.63 13/8 13/8 5/4 open 2.63 13/8 Bet365
5 Kindly Queen 28/1 open 34.00 28/1 28/1 28/1 28/1 28/1 28/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Shopaholic

Speculative

Shopaholic owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (41) and market confidence (91). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

15/8 Jack Jones Donagh Murphy(5)
66% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Blue Tulip

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

13/8 · William Muir & Chris Grassick
✓ Value Signal

Kindly Queen

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

28/1 · Christopher Kellett
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

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Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
41 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +15.6 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
91 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +20.1 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
33 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.3 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
36 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.6 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
57 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.7 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
59 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.7 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 1. Shopaholic
52.3 15/8
2 4. Blue Tulip
51.6 13/8
3 3. Astrid
49.7 9/2
4 2. Thankyou Baroness
45.6 6/1
5 5. Kindly Queen
30.6 28/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Blue Tulip
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

4
Age 3 · 9-2
13/8
★★★★☆ SR 74 🐾 —

Favourable weight of 9-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.

1
Age 4 · 10-2
15/8
★★★☆☆ SR 74 🐾 —

SR 74 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Age 3 · 9-9
9/2
★★★☆☆ SR 62 🐾 —

SR 62 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 5 · 10-1
6/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 60 🐾 —

SR 60 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Blue Tulip
Confidence: Speculative

Blue Tulip (SR:74, 7/4) shares the joint-highest SR in the field with Shopaholic but carries a significant weight advantage at 9-2 versus Shopaholic's 10-2 — a full 14lb difference on equal ability, which on an AW surface over 1m6f is a substantial edge. Her recent form string 566132 shows a clear progressive trajectory culminating in a win, and she brings course form (W0P1 at Southwell) that confirms she handles this track. The Muir & Grassick yard runs at 11% and Jack Doughty at 13%, both respectable strike rates. The concern is a step up in class (↑1) and a GoingFit of only ~ rather than +, but the weight advantage over an already drifting favourite is the dominant factor here. Each-way alternative: Astrid. Main danger: Shopaholic — Shopaholic shares the highest SR (74) in the field, has a positive going fit, and despite drifting carries proven form — if the 14lb weight concession to Blue Tulip matters less than expected over this trip, she remains a live threat.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Blue Tulip's last run was 33 days ago — the longest absence in the field — and her GoingFit is rated '~' rather than '+', suggesting Southwell's Fibresand may not be her optimum surface despite one p…
  • Her MarkMv of +4 means the handicapper has already responded to her recent win, nudging her rating up and effectively narrowing the weight pull she holds over Shopaholic from the official marks persp…
  • Form string 566132 shows the win came in the final run but was preceded by a second and third at lower grades; today's class rise (↑1) is a concrete step up and her best efforts have all come in easi…
  • Shopaholic's market drift of out7% is modest, and at 6/4 the market still rates her closely; Donagh Murphy (9%) and a yard running at 12% on 594 runners is a strong combination that could overcome th…
Shortlist Blue Tulip, Shopaholic, Astrid
Each-way: Astrid Danger: Shopaholic

🗺 The Course Class 5

1m6f21y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
5 Confirmed runners
Southwell (AW) Track and setting
Class 5 Race grade