Like A Butterfly Novice Steeplechase (Grade 3) · 2m4f0y
SR 143 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 143 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 140 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Favourable weight of 10-13 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Favourable weight of 10-13 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 116 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Shadow Paddy | 7/2 open 6.00 | 10/3 open 6.50 | 10/3 open 5.00 | 10/3 open 5.00 | 7/2 open 5.00 | 7/2 open 5.00 | 7/2 Bet365 |
| 2 Bowensonfire | 15/2 open 9.00 | 7/1 open 9.00 | 7/1 open 9.00 | 7/1 open 9.00 | 15/2 open 9.00 | 7/1 open 9.00 | 15/2 Bet365 |
| 3 D Art D Art | 14/1 open 10.00 | 18/1 open 9.00 | 16/1 open 10.00 | 16/1 open 10.00 | 16/1 open 10.00 | 16/1 open 10.00 | 18/1 Paddy Power |
| 4 Frankie John | 15/8 | 7/4 open 2.63 | 7/4 open 2.88 | 7/4 open 2.88 | 15/8 | 7/4 open 2.88 | 15/8 Bet365 |
| 5 Vicar Street | 7/4 | 15/8 open 2.50 | 7/4 open 2.50 | 7/4 open 2.50 | 7/4 open 2.50 | 7/4 open 2.50 | 15/8 Paddy Power |
| 6 Kilbarry Saint | 18/1 open 15.00 | 20/1 open 17.00 | 18/1 open 17.00 | 18/1 open 17.00 | 18/1 open 17.00 | 18/1 | 20/1 Paddy Power |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Frankie John owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (87) and market confidence (91). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalFavourable weight of 10-13 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Favourable weight of 10-13 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 143 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 143 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 140 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 116 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Shadow Paddy (SR 143, 4/1) has steamed in 15% in the market — the most significant move in this field — and brings a compelling form line of 1P-111, showing four wins from his last four completions with the sole blot a pull-up that does not diminish the subsequent hat-trick. He is proven at today's distance (DistFit:+) and on good ground (GoingFit:+), and while his SR of 143 trails Vicar Street's 163, the weight advantage is meaningful: Shadow Paddy carries 11-6 versus Vicar Street's 10-13, but critically Vicar Street's market has drifted 8% and carries a DistFit:? at 2m4f — a genuine question mark in a novice chase at this trip. Trainer McCarthy's 8% strike rate is modest but the money is coming in for a reason, and the combination of confirmed trip/going suitability, red-hot recent form, and clear market confidence makes Shadow Paddy the most compelling overall case. Each-way alternative: Frankie John. Main danger: Vicar Street — Vicar Street's SR of 163 is the highest in the field by a clear margin, Mullins and Cobden is the most powerful trainer-jockey combination in jump racing, and a form line of /12-31 shows consistent competitiveness at the top level — the drift to 7/4 from a likely shorter opening price may simply reflect field-money redistribution rather than a genuine negative signal.