Ayr 15:30 RESULTED
Class 5 17 Sep 2026

Last Thursday IDP Supporting Care Through Better Purchasing Handicap Stakes (Div I)

IDP Supporting Care Through Better Purchasing Handicap Stakes (Div I) · 1m

Official Result

IDP Supporting Care Through Better Purchasing Handicap Stakes (Div I)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Cisco Disco (IRE) Clifford Lee · R. Mike Smith
    16/1
  2. 18/1
  3. 11/2
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Settled
  • 13 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 4 days, 11 hours ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Selection silks
Selection
Age 4 · 10-0
267525
75
47
81
4
10-0
14/1 FCST 12/1
Twice placed in recent starts and our rating has her as the second-ranked contender in this field, so Selection arrives with solid claims despite being winless in her last six; the main risk is the 80-day absence on 140 lb from stall 11.
AI verdict

SR 47 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.

2
It'sneverjustone silks
It'sneverjustone
Age 4 · 9-13
-44600
74
45
82
4
9-13
12/1 16/1 10/1
Winless in his last five starts, It'sneverjustone nonetheless carries strong credentials here — ranked top of 13 on our figures, he has experience of today's trip and going, and a 14-day turnaround leaves him fresh; the risk is his recent string of unplaced efforts.
AI verdict

SR 45 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.

3
Orangesandlemons silks
Orangesandlemons
Age 4 · 9-12
15-389
73
74
80
4
9-12
6/1 13/2 11/2
A third three starts back suggests ability, and she did land a win five starts back, but back-to-back eighths and ninths in recent outings are a concern; 106 days off the track adds further uncertainty despite experience over today's trip and going.
AI verdict

SR 74 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Atmosphere silks
Atmosphere
Age 4 · 9-11
-32253
72
78
80
4
9-11
5/1 5/1 9/2
Atmosphere has shown consistent placing ability in recent starts, finishing in the top three on three occasions in his last five, and he has run over today's distance and going before; winless in that spell, however, he will need to find a little extra to get his head in front.
AI verdict

SR 78 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Havana Touch silks
Havana Touch
Age 5 · 9-11
212612
72
67
70
5
9-11
11/1 9/2 9/1
Havana Touch showed his class with a win two starts back before bouncing back to second last time out, so recent form reads well, though he has been held to a speed rating of 65 and our rating of 70 suggests he faces stiffer opposition here; has run over today's trip and returns after 23 days carrying 137 lb from stall one.
AI verdict

SR 67 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Runninsonofagun silks
Runninsonofagun
Age 4 · 9-10
322610
71
68
73
4
9-10
15/2 17/2 6/1
Runninsonofagun was a winner two starts back but disappointed last time out, and eight days on is a quick return. He has run over today's trip and going, and at 136 lb from stall seven there is no obvious pull in the weights.
AI verdict

SR 68 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Calyxoh silks
Calyxoh
Age 4 · 9-10
730430
71
49
78
4
9-10
SP 14/1 25/1
Twice third in recent starts, Calyxoh arrives here fit on a 13-day turnaround with experience of today's trip and going, and his weight of 136 lb from stall two is straightforward enough; yet to score in his last six, he nonetheless catches the eye on his overall profile at a rating of 78.
AI verdict

SR 49 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.

8
Tarmonbarry Kid silks
Tarmonbarry Kid
Age 3 · 9-9
5-6131
74
82
75
3
9-9
9/2 10/3 4/1
Tarmonbarry Kid arrives in good nick, a winner last time out and again three starts back, though a sixth four starts back and fifth five starts back reveal some inconsistency; he has run over today's trip and going, carries 135 lb from stall ten, and holds claims without dominating on an official mark of 74.
AI verdict

SR 82 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

9
Cisco Disco silks
Cisco Disco
Age 8 · 9-7
-87067
68
67
75
8
9-7
8/1 13/2 6/1
Winless in his last five starts, Cisco Disco has nonetheless shown consistency at this level and has run over today's trip and going before; carrying 133 lb from stall eight, he rates a shade above his official mark but faces a stiff ask to break his duck here.
AI verdict

SR 67 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Sanafi Zabeel silks
Sanafi Zabeel
Age 5 · 9-7
334513
68
68
68
5
9-7
17/2 15/2 8/1
Rated a lowly 10th of 13 on our figures, Sanafi Zabeel looks hard to fancy despite being third last time out and a winner two starts back; he has run over today's trip and returns after 21 days, but the rating picture makes it difficult to argue his case.
AI verdict

SR 68 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

11
Second Fiddle silks
Second Fiddle
Age 7 · 9-4
323342
65
59
65
7
9-4
16/1 6/1 14/1
Winless in her last six starts and ranked bottom of the field on our figures, Second Fiddle faces a stiff ask from stall 12 carrying 130 lb, though she has run over today's distance and going before and her recent form shows consistent placing.
AI verdict

SR 59 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

12
Perfidia silks
Perfidia
Age 4 · 9-0
122730
61
44
66
4
9-0
20/1 22/1 16/1
Ranked near the foot of the field on our figures, Perfidia arrives on the back of an unplaced effort eight days ago and has managed just one win in his last six starts, making him hard to fancy despite the experience over today's trip and going and a relatively quick turnaround suggesting fitness.
AI verdict

SR 44 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

13
Keats House silks
Keats House
Age 4 · 8-11
775554
58
59
66
4
8-11
12/1 11/1 9/1
Winless in his last six starts, with a string of fourth and fifth-place efforts offering little encouragement, Keats House is hard to fancy from stall 13 on these figures, though he has run over today's trip and going before and returns reasonably fresh on 15 days' rest.
AI verdict

SR 59 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Selection 14/1 open 13.00 14/1 open 19.00 12/1 open 17.00 12/1 open 17.00 12/1 open 15.00 14/1 open 23.00 14/1 Bet365
2 It'sneverjustone 12/1 open 17.00 10/1 open 17.00 12/1 open 17.00 12/1 open 17.00 11/1 open 17.00 10/1 open 19.00 12/1 Bet365
3 Orangesandlemons 6/1 open 17.00 11/2 open 13.00 6/1 open 15.00 6/1 open 15.00 6/1 open 15.00 11/2 open 7.50 6/1 Bet365
4 Atmosphere 5/1 9/2 open 7.00 11/2 11/2 9/2 open 6.50 9/2 open 6.50 11/2 Coral
5 Havana Touch 11/1 open 5.50 14/1 open 6.00 9/1 open 5.50 9/1 open 5.50 12/1 open 5.50 12/1 open 6.50 14/1 Paddy Power
6 Runninsonofagun 15/2 open 11.00 13/2 open 9.50 6/1 open 10.00 6/1 open 10.00 7/1 open 10.00 15/2 open 10.00 15/2 Bet365
7 Calyxoh 28/1 open 15.00 25/1 open 17.00 28/1 open 17.00 28/1 open 17.00 28/1 open 15.00 25/1 open 21.00 28/1 Bet365
8 Tarmonbarry Kid 9/2 open 5.00 9/2 open 4.50 5/1 open 4.50 5/1 open 4.50 5/1 open 4.50 4/1 open 4.33 5/1 Coral
9 Cisco Disco 8/1 open 11.00 7/1 open 8.50 6/1 open 9.50 6/1 open 9.50 8/1 open 9.50 15/2 open 7.50 8/1 Bet365
10 Sanafi Zabeel 17/2 open 8.50 8/1 9/1 open 8.50 9/1 open 8.50 17/2 open 8.50 17/2 9/1 Coral
11 Second Fiddle 16/1 open 9.00 16/1 open 7.00 14/1 open 8.00 14/1 open 8.00 16/1 open 7.50 16/1 open 9.00 16/1 Bet365
12 Perfidia 20/1 open 23.00 18/1 open 26.00 20/1 open 23.00 20/1 open 23.00 16/1 open 23.00 18/1 open 26.00 20/1 Bet365
13 Keats House 12/1 open 19.00 12/1 open 26.00 9/1 open 21.00 9/1 open 21.00 12/1 open 21.00 10/1 open 12.00 12/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Tarmonbarry Kid

Speculative

Tarmonbarry Kid owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (46) and market confidence (79). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

9/2 Richard & Peter Fahey Oisin Orr
69% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Atmosphere

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

5/1 · Richard Spencer
✓ Value Signal

Perfidia

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

20/1 · Tim Easterby
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
46 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +17.3 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence High conviction
79 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +17.4 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
35 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.3 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Speculative
46 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.6 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor High conviction
62 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +6.2 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
53 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.3 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 8. Tarmonbarry Kid
54.5 9/2
2 4. Atmosphere
51.9 5/1
3 9. Cisco Disco
48.6 8/1
4 6. Runninsonofagun
47.6 15/2
5 3. Orangesandlemons
46.9 6/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Tarmonbarry Kid
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

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The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

8
Age 3 · 9-9
9/2
★★★☆☆ SR 82 🐾

SR 82 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Age 4 · 9-11
5/1
★★★☆☆ SR 78 🐾

SR 78 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Age 4 · 9-12
6/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 74 🐾

SR 74 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Age 4 · 9-10
15/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 68 🐾

SR 68 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Age 8 · 9-7
8/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 67 🐾

SR 67 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Age 5 · 9-7
17/2
★★★☆☆ SR 68 🐾

SR 68 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Age 5 · 9-11
11/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 67 🐾

SR 67 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Age 4 · 9-13
12/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 45 🐾

SR 45 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.

13
Age 4 · 8-11
12/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 59 🐾

SR 59 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

1
Age 4 · 10-0
14/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 47 🐾

SR 47 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.

11
Age 7 · 9-4
16/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 59 🐾

SR 59 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

12
Age 4 · 9-0
20/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 44 🐾

SR 44 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Tarmonbarry Kid
Confidence: Speculative

Tarmonbarry Kid (SR:82, 7/2) is the clear SR leader in this field by 4 points over Atmosphere (SR:78), and crucially carries only 9-9 — a meaningful weight advantage over Orangesandlemons (9-12) and Atmosphere (9-11). The form line 5-6131 shows a horse that has found its feet sharply, winning twice and finishing third from its last four starts; the rightmost '1' confirms last-time-out winning form at the same class. Oisin Orr (14%, 1544 runners) is a reliable booking for a yard that sends horses north with purpose. While GoingFit is marked '?' (untested on Good to Soft), the form line suggests a versatile horse in peak condition at the right weight. Each-way alternative: Orangesandlemons. Main danger: Atmosphere — Atmosphere (SR:78, 5/1) has shortened 10% in the market, carries the visor for the first time which often sharpens focus, drops a class, and has DistFit:+ over this mile trip — the combination of headgear switch and class relief makes it the most credible threat to the selection.

Case against 4 clamped
  • GoingFit marked '?' — Tarmonbarry Kid has no recorded form on Good to Soft, and Ayr in September often produces testing ground that could blunt a horse whose recent wins came on faster surfaces.
  • Age/class profile: as the sole 3-year-old in a mixed-age handicap, Tarmonbarry Kid faces proven older horses at a track (Ayr) where 3yo leniency in the weights may not fully offset experience gaps la…
  • Market drift of +4 points is modest but not supportive for a 7/2 shot — Atmosphere (5/1, in 10%) and Orangesandlemons (11/2, in 53%) are attracting stronger market confidence, suggesting informed mon…
  • Fahey yard strike rate of only 10% from 564 runners is below-average, and the horse's form sequence '5-6131' includes a 6th just two runs ago, raising questions about consistency at this level.
Shortlist Tarmonbarry Kid, Atmosphere, Orangesandlemons, Sanafi Zabeel
Each-way: Orangesandlemons Danger: Atmosphere

🗺 The Course Class 5

1m Distance to cover
Good to Soft Expected going
13 Confirmed runners
Ayr Track and setting
Class 5 Race grade