Twice placed in recent starts and our rating has her as the second-ranked contender in this field, so Selection arrives with solid claims despite being winless in her last six; the main risk is the 80-day absence on 140 lb from stall 11.
Form last 6267525
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
47SR81RPR75OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 47 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
Winless in his last five starts, It'sneverjustone nonetheless carries strong credentials here — ranked top of 13 on our figures, he has experience of today's trip and going, and a 14-day turnaround leaves him fresh; the risk is his recent string of unplaced efforts.
Form last 6-44600
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
45SR82RPR74OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 45 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
A third three starts back suggests ability, and she did land a win five starts back, but back-to-back eighths and ninths in recent outings are a concern; 106 days off the track adds further uncertainty despite experience over today's trip and going.
Form last 615-389
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
74SR80RPR73OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 74 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Atmosphere has shown consistent placing ability in recent starts, finishing in the top three on three occasions in his last five, and he has run over today's distance and going before; winless in that spell, however, he will need to find a little extra to get his head in front.
Form last 6-32253
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
78SR80RPR72OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 78 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Havana Touch showed his class with a win two starts back before bouncing back to second last time out, so recent form reads well, though he has been held to a speed rating of 65 and our rating of 70 suggests he faces stiffer opposition here; has run over today's trip and returns after 23 days carrying 137 lb from stall one.
Form last 6212612
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
67SR70RPR72OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 67 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Runninsonofagun was a winner two starts back but disappointed last time out, and eight days on is a quick return. He has run over today's trip and going, and at 136 lb from stall seven there is no obvious pull in the weights.
Form last 6322610
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
68SR73RPR71OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 68 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Twice third in recent starts, Calyxoh arrives here fit on a 13-day turnaround with experience of today's trip and going, and his weight of 136 lb from stall two is straightforward enough; yet to score in his last six, he nonetheless catches the eye on his overall profile at a rating of 78.
Form last 6730430
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
49SR78RPR71OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 49 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.
Tarmonbarry Kid arrives in good nick, a winner last time out and again three starts back, though a sixth four starts back and fifth five starts back reveal some inconsistency; he has run over today's trip and going, carries 135 lb from stall ten, and holds claims without dominating on an official mark of 74.
Form last 65-6131
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
82SR75RPR74OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 82 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last five starts, Cisco Disco has nonetheless shown consistency at this level and has run over today's trip and going before; carrying 133 lb from stall eight, he rates a shade above his official mark but faces a stiff ask to break his duck here.
Form last 6-87067
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
67SR75RPR68OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 67 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Rated a lowly 10th of 13 on our figures, Sanafi Zabeel looks hard to fancy despite being third last time out and a winner two starts back; he has run over today's trip and returns after 21 days, but the rating picture makes it difficult to argue his case.
Form last 6334513
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
68SR68RPR68OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 68 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in her last six starts and ranked bottom of the field on our figures, Second Fiddle faces a stiff ask from stall 12 carrying 130 lb, though she has run over today's distance and going before and her recent form shows consistent placing.
Form last 6323342
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
59SR65RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 59 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked near the foot of the field on our figures, Perfidia arrives on the back of an unplaced effort eight days ago and has managed just one win in his last six starts, making him hard to fancy despite the experience over today's trip and going and a relatively quick turnaround suggesting fitness.
Form last 6122730
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
44SR66RPR61OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 44 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last six starts, with a string of fourth and fifth-place efforts offering little encouragement, Keats House is hard to fancy from stall 13 on these figures, though he has run over today's trip and going before and returns reasonably fresh on 15 days' rest.
Form last 6775554
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
59SR66RPR58OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 59 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Tarmonbarry Kid owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (46) and market confidence (79). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
9/2Richard & Peter FaheyOisin Orr
69%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Atmosphere
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
5/1 · Richard Spencer✓ Value Signal
Perfidia
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
20/1 · Tim Easterby◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Tarmonbarry Kid (SR:82, 7/2) is the clear SR leader in this field by 4 points over Atmosphere (SR:78), and crucially carries only 9-9 — a meaningful weight advantage over Orangesandlemons (9-12) and Atmosphere (9-11). The form line 5-6131 shows a horse that has found its feet sharply, winning twice and finishing third from its last four starts; the rightmost '1' confirms last-time-out winning form at the same class. Oisin Orr (14%, 1544 runners) is a reliable booking for a yard that sends horses north with purpose. While GoingFit is marked '?' (untested on Good to Soft), the form line suggests a versatile horse in peak condition at the right weight.
Each-way alternative: Orangesandlemons.
Main danger: Atmosphere — Atmosphere (SR:78, 5/1) has shortened 10% in the market, carries the visor for the first time which often sharpens focus, drops a class, and has DistFit:+ over this mile trip — the combination of headgear switch and class relief makes it the most credible threat to the selection.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
GoingFit marked '?' — Tarmonbarry Kid has no recorded form on Good to Soft, and Ayr in September often produces testing ground that could blunt a horse whose recent wins came on faster surfaces.
Age/class profile: as the sole 3-year-old in a mixed-age handicap, Tarmonbarry Kid faces proven older horses at a track (Ayr) where 3yo leniency in the weights may not fully offset experience gaps la…
Market drift of +4 points is modest but not supportive for a 7/2 shot — Atmosphere (5/1, in 10%) and Orangesandlemons (11/2, in 53%) are attracting stronger market confidence, suggesting informed mon…
Fahey yard strike rate of only 10% from 564 runners is below-average, and the horse's form sequence '5-6131' includes a 6th just two runs ago, raising questions about consistency at this level.