Ingleby Archie shaped with promise when third three starts back and went one better with a win four starts back, showing he can deliver on his day; the concern is that his last two efforts — fifth and eighth — suggest he needs to rediscover that form at the weights.
Form last 6321358
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
61SR73RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 61 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Fiscal Policy showed promise with a third two starts back but has been winless in his last six, and a fifth last time out — just 12 days ago — keeps the profile mixed; he has run over today's trip and going, and 142 lb from stall six makes this a stern ask.
Form last 6200635
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
71SR73RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 71 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last five starts, Bloodsweatandtyres does at least return quickly on 15 days' rest and has experience over today's trip and going, but a string of unplaced efforts — with only a fifth three starts back to show — makes it hard to fancy him from this sort of profile.
Form last 6-00506
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
55SR72RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 55 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 12/1.
Winless in his last five starts and unplaced in three straight, Alpha Magic nonetheless rates highly on our figures and has experience of today's trip and conditions; the risk is that his recent run of poor form may prove hard to shake off.
Form last 6-48000
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
63SR79RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 63 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Placed third last time out and fourth two starts back, Irish Nectar arrives in good nick just 13 days on, with experience of today's distance and going an obvious plus; yet to score in recent starts, but his overall profile makes him our pick here carrying 139 lb from stall nine.
Form last 6404943
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
73SR76RPR67OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 73 suggests ability but 4/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last five starts and 123 days absent, Beauty Choice nevertheless catches the eye carrying 138 lb from stall 3 with a rating of 74 suggesting more ability than his official mark of 66 implies — the concern is that unplaced efforts dominate his recent profile.
Form last 60-4400
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
55SR74RPR66OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 55 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.
Third last time out and a winner five starts back, Good Karma has experience of today's trip and conditions, but in his last six starts he has just the one victory to show, and a mark of 61 suggests connections face a stiff task from stall 2 carrying 133 lb.
Form last 6412343
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
69SR63RPR61OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in her last six starts, with unplaced efforts the recent norm, Uncertainty is hard to fancy on our rankings, though she has run over today's distance and going and returns on a quick eight-day turnaround carrying 131 lb from stall four.
Form last 6879760
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
36SR61RPR61OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 36 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.
Ranked bottom of the field on our figures and officially rated just 59, Ideal Guest is hard to fancy despite a win three starts back; he has been fourth or worse in his last two outings, and nothing in his profile — though he has run over today's trip and going — makes a convincing case for reversal here.
Form last 6304154
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
54SR58RPR59OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 54 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Third last time out, and fifth two starts back, One of Our Own has experience of today's trip and going in her favour, though a mark of 58 and a middle draw from stall seven leave her needing to find more from a patchy recent profile.
Form last 6163653
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
60SR62RPR58OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 60 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last five starts and ranked tenth of twelve on our figures, Profiteer is hard to fancy; 122 days off the track does little to help his cause, though he has run over today's trip and going before and carries a manageable 127 lb from stall eight.
Form last 64050-0
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
34SR60RPR55OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 34 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
Ranked 11 of 12 on our figures, Hares Bredth finished sixth last time out and has managed only one win in his last six starts, that coming five starts back; experience over today's trip and going, plus a quick turnaround of nine days, are about the best that can be said for him here.
Form last 6717636
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
35SR58RPR56OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 35 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Irish Nectar owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (41) and market confidence (86). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
3/1Michael HerringtonCharlie Tucker(5)
68%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Good Karma
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
9/2 · John David Riches✓ Value Signal
Uncertainty
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
40/1 · Simon Whitaker◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Fiscal Policy (SR:71, 11/4) leads the field on ability and combines that edge with a 23% market steam, suggesting informed confidence. Crucially, this is a drop in class (ClassMv:↓1) off a mark only 1lb above last win — a very manageable rise — and the horse brings Course:W2P3 at Pontefract, a specialist track where course form is a genuine advantage. Weight of 10-2 is shared with several rivals, so no penalty burden. The 12-day turnaround is tight but the horse has already shown it handles quick returns. Against its rivals, the next-best SR is Irish Nectar at 73, but that horse shows GoingFit:- and DistFit:- on today's conditions, directly undermining its rating claim.
Each-way alternative: Good Karma.
Main danger: Irish Nectar — Irish Nectar (SR:73, the highest in the field) is steaming in 31% with a 13lb drop in mark since last win and wears blinkers, but GoingFit:- and DistFit:- on today's good ground over 6f are genuine concerns that the market may be overlooking.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Form reading '200635' shows Fiscal Policy has not won in its last 6 starts, with the '5' most recently — a concerning lack of a win despite reportedly being on a workable mark.
Good Karma (SR:69, 4/1) sits only 2 SR points below Fiscal Policy, carries 9-7 vs 10-2, and has a fresher recent form string '412343' showing consistent placing — the weight pull of 9lb is a signific…
Irish Nectar's SR:73 is higher than Fiscal Policy's SR:71 and despite going/dist fitness doubts, it carries 9-13 — a 3lb pull in weight that partially offsets those concerns at this level.
Jockey Harry Vigors (5) has only a 13% strike rate from 266 rides — respectable but not elite — and Pontefract's demanding track can expose less experienced claimer judgment in a competitive 12-runne…
ShortlistFiscal Policy, Irish Nectar, Good Karma, Alpha Magic