Chepstow 17:10 RESULTED
Class 5 31 Aug 2026

Monday 31 August Tom's Big Bike Ride Handicap Stakes

Tom's Big Bike Ride Handicap Stakes · 5f16y

Official Result

Tom's Big Bike Ride Handicap Stakes

Confirmed
  1. Winner Level Up (IRE) Pat Dobbs · David Evans
    5/2J
  2. 7/1
  3. 5/2J
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Settled
  • 7 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 3 weeks ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Magna silks
Magna
Age 4 · 9-13
111374
67
64
67
4
9-13
5/1 3/1 5/1
Magna showed a third three starts back then back-to-back wins four and five starts back, so there is winning form to call on, but her last two outings have brought a seventh and a fourth, and the return after 35 days leaves a small fitness question alongside a stiff 139 lb burden.
AI verdict

SR 64 suggests ability but 5/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Control Room silks
Control Room
Age 3 · 9-12
1-2324
68
71
75
3
9-12
7/2 9/4 7/2
Placed second two starts back and a winner five starts back, Control Room brings solid recent form into this, and her experience over today's trip and going is a clear asset; drawn in stall four carrying 138 lb, she rates the one to beat on our figures.
AI verdict

SR 71 suggests ability but 10/3 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Level Up silks
Level Up
Age 7 · 9-12
222167
66
69
69
7
9-12
4/1 9/4 7/2
Level Up won three starts back and has run over today's trip and going, with his 138 lb burden from stall one the chief concern after two below-par efforts since that victory.
AI verdict

SR 69 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Savannah Smiles silks
Savannah Smiles
Age 6 · 9-9
231269
63
48
66
6
9-9
10/1 12/1 9/1
Beaten in her last two starts and ranked sixth of seven on our figures, Savannah Smiles is hard to fancy at the weights, though she has winning form in recent starts, has run over today's trip and going, and returns after just 13 days.
AI verdict

SR 48 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

5
Connie's Rose silks
Connie's Rose
Age 7 · 9-8
244433
62
69
70
7
9-8
11/4 3/1 5/2
Connie's Rose has been a model of consistency, never finishing out of the first four in her last six starts, including back-to-back thirds most recently, and she has run over today's trip and going before — the main concern is whether she can convert that reliability into a win, having gone without one in recent starts.
AI verdict

SR 69 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Double Naughty silks
Double Naughty
Age 3 · 9-6
-16679
62
50
67
3
9-6
12/1 8/1 12/1
A winner five starts back, Double Naughty has run over today's trip and returns after 18 days, carrying 132 lb from stall six; the worry is that her last four outings have yielded finishes of sixth, sixth, seventh and ninth.
AI verdict

SR 50 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 12/1.

7
Some Nightmare silks
Some Nightmare
Age 9 · 8-9
433732
48
61
61
9
8-9
13/2 5/1 13/2
Winless in his last six starts and ranked bottom of the field on our figures, Some Nightmare looks hard to fancy here, though he has run over today's distance and going before and returns on a reasonable 13-day turnaround with a placed effort last time out.
AI verdict

SR 61 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Magna 5/1 open 4.00 11/2 open 4.50 11/2 open 4.33 11/2 open 4.00 11/2 open 4.00 11/2 open 4.50 11/2 Paddy Power
2 Control Room 7/2 open 3.25 4/1 open 4.33 4/1 open 4.00 4/1 open 3.25 4/1 open 3.25 7/2 open 4.00 4/1 Paddy Power
3 Level Up 4/1 open 8.00 4/1 open 3.25 4/1 open 8.00 4/1 open 8.00 4/1 open 8.00 7/2 open 5.00 4/1 Bet365
4 Savannah Smiles 10/1 open 13.00 9/1 open 13.00 10/1 open 13.00 10/1 open 13.00 10/1 open 13.00 10/1 open 15.00 10/1 Bet365
5 Connie's Rose 11/4 open 6.00 5/2 open 7.00 11/4 open 6.00 11/4 open 6.00 11/4 open 6.00 11/4 open 4.00 11/4 Bet365
6 Double Naughty 12/1 open 9.00 12/1 open 9.50 12/1 open 9.00 12/1 open 9.00 12/1 open 9.00 12/1 open 10.00 12/1 Bet365
7 Some Nightmare 13/2 open 7.00 13/2 open 8.50 13/2 open 6.00 13/2 open 7.00 13/2 open 7.00 13/2 open 6.50 13/2 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Control Room

Speculative

Control Room owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (39) and market confidence (84). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

7/2 Grace Harris Edward Greatrex
66% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Connie's Rose

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

11/4 · Grace Harris
✓ Value Signal

Double Naughty

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

12/1 · Joe Tickle
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

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Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
39 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +15.0 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
84 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +18.5 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
35 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.8 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
41 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.1 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
61 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +6.2 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
56 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.4 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 2. Control Room
51.8 7/2
2 5. Connie's Rose
50.9 11/4
3 1. Magna
50.6 5/1
4 3. Level Up
49.3 4/1
5 7. Some Nightmare
43.7 13/2
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Connie's Rose
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

5
Age 7 · 9-8
11/4
★★★☆☆ SR 69 🐾

SR 69 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 3 · 9-12
7/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 71 🐾

SR 71 suggests ability but 10/3 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Age 7 · 9-12
4/1
★★★☆☆ SR 69 🐾

SR 69 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

1
Age 4 · 9-13
5/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 64 🐾

SR 64 suggests ability but 5/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 9 · 8-9
13/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 61 🐾

SR 61 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Age 6 · 9-9
10/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 48 🐾

SR 48 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

6
Age 3 · 9-6
12/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 50 🐾

SR 50 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 12/1.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

Steamers Shortened — market backing

No steamers in this race.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Connie's Rose
Confidence: Speculative

Connie's Rose (SR:69, 9/4) is the Grace Harris yard's clear #1 runner — Hutchinson booked over the yard's other two riders, carrying the lightest weight of the trio at 9-8, and the market has steamed in 41% to confirm stable confidence. The MarkMv:-3 means she's running off a mark 3lb below her last win, a material advantage in a Class 5 sprint, and she brings proven GoingFit:~ on good-to-soft plus Course:W1P13 at Chepstow — that course record across 14 visits is substantial specialist evidence. The ClassMv:↑1 is a mild concern but the weight relief and market move outweigh it; the tp headgear (tongue-tie and cheekpieces) suggests the yard has a specific setup for this horse today. Each-way alternative: Level Up. Main danger: Level Up — Level Up (SR:69, 5/1) has steamed in 17% with a visor first-time on board, holds Course:W1P1 at Chepstow, and ran just 3 days ago suggesting peak fitness — that market move on a horse at the same class mark is hard to ignore.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Form reads 244433 — six consecutive runs without a win, including two thirds and a fourth in her last three; she is not winning at present despite various attempts.
  • Ran just 2 days ago, making this an extremely quick turnaround for a 7-year-old; residual fatigue could blunt her finishing effort in a sprint.
  • Control Room (SR:71, 10/3) rates higher on SR and is also from the Grace Harris yard — if the stable truly fancied Connie's Rose most, Control Room's market drift out 22% is modest and it still holds…
  • Level Up (SR:69, 5/1) is on identical SR, has freshness (3 days), a proven Course:W1P1 record, and is steaming in 17% — a live rival at a bigger price with visor headgear change.
Shortlist Connie's Rose, Level Up, Control Room, Some Nightmare
Each-way: Level Up Danger: Level Up

🗺 The Course Class 5

5f16y Distance to cover
Good to Soft Expected going
7 Confirmed runners
Chepstow Track and setting
Class 5 Race grade