Downpatrick 17:04 RESULTED

31 Aug 2026

Monday 31 August Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP Handicap Steeplechase

Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP Handicap Steeplechase · 2m3f100y

Settled

16 declared
0 picked

Saturday Draw Updated 3 weeks ago

No.

Horse

Form

Jockey / Trainer

SR?

RPR/OR

Age

Wgt

Votes

Odds

Pick

Comment

Driveonwill

Age 6 · 12-0

4-U1U0

Donagh Meyler 11%

Ross O'Sullivan 10%

100

12-0

★☆☆☆☆

—

Driveonwill landed a win three starts back and has distance and going experience in his favour, but unplaced on his return 34 days ago and a trainer cold at 0/21 over the past fortnight are real negatives for the 168 lb-burdened gelding.

AI verdict

SR 62 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

Gorthill

Age 10 · 11-13

5P-5P2

TBA

Stephen Carlin 0%

117

11-13

★☆☆☆☆

—

Gorthill arrives on the back of a second last time out, returning quickly on a surface and trip he has encountered before, and our rating of 116 puts him clear of his 15 rivals — though he remains winless in recent starts.

AI verdict

SR 70 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

Kalsman

Age 8 · 11-11

1-9033

Kieren Buckley 8%

Liam Lennon 3%

11-11

★☆☆☆☆

—

Kalsman arrives in decent nick after consecutive thirds, giving him a placed thread through recent starts, though he was unplaced three starts back and his rating of 94 leaves him ranked seventh of sixteen. Has run over today's trip and going, and 22 days since his last run suggests he's fresh enough to go again.

AI verdict

SR 66 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

Run For The Border

Age 6 · 11-9

7-3243

Daniel King 10%

John Patrick Ryan 8%

11-9

★☆☆☆☆

—

Winless in her last five starts, Run For The Border nonetheless shows consistent placing form — third last time out and a second three starts back — and has run over today's trip and going before, though 163 lb is the significant concern against stronger rivals.

AI verdict

SR 68 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

Full Noise

Age 10 · 11-8

P425/3

Mr D McGill 9%

Gary McGill 5%

11-8

★☆☆☆☆

—

Full Noise shaped well when third last time out and was second three starts back, and he has distance and going experience to call on carrying 162 lb; the risk is that he remains yet to win in his last five starts.

AI verdict

SR 65 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

Wing Back

Age 6 · 11-7

3F0-96

Phillip Enright 7%

S Curling 10%

11-7

★☆☆☆☆

—

Winless in his last five starts, Wing Back at least brings distance and going experience to the table, though a sixth last time out and a string of disappointing efforts before that make it hard to see him troubling the leaders from a rating of 93 carrying 161 lb.

AI verdict

SR 58 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

My Cullen

Age 6 · 11-4

F90524

Darragh O'Keeffe 13%

John Joseph Hanlon 6%

11-4

★★☆☆☆

—

Winless in his last six starts but a second two starts back suggests he retains ability, and having run over today's trip and going is a plus; the 158 lb burden may test his resolution here.

AI verdict

SR 69 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Our Zebo

Age 7 · 11-3

2316-7

Conor Stone-Walsh 7%

Noel C. Kelly 9%

102

11-3

★★☆☆☆

—

Our Zebo won three starts back and was placed twice more in that same sequence, arriving here fit on a quick ten-day turnaround with distance and going experience in his favour; the concern is that his last two efforts produced a sixth and a seventh, suggesting he may need to find more.

AI verdict

SR 72 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

My Policy

Age 7 · 10-13

P82/PP

Alix Balfe 5%

Patrick Rooney 0%

10-13

★☆☆☆☆

—

Yet to score in her last five starts — with two consecutive pulls and 153 lb to carry — she does bring going experience to the table, though a return to form looks a stiff ask here.

AI verdict

SR 56 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

Not So Serious

Age 5 · 10-13

0PPP1U

J J Slevin 13%

W J Lanigan 7%

101

10-13

★☆☆☆☆

—

Not So Serious showed smart form when winning two starts back, and our rating of 101 makes him a serious threat off a light 153 lb on going he has experience of; the unseating last time is the obvious concern.

AI verdict

SR 64 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

King's Son

Age 6 · 10-12

0-3667

Philip Donovan 7%

Seamus Neville 9%

10-12

★☆☆☆☆

—

Winless in his last five starts, with three consecutive finishes no better than sixth the concern, King's Son does bring distance-and-going experience and returns after a fair 27-day break, though a rating of 88 leaves him facing a stiff ask from 11th in the rankings.

AI verdict

SR 61 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

The Cobblers Wife

Age 8 · 10-10

064-P1

Danny Mullins 11%

Anthony Mullins 8%

10-10

★☆☆☆☆

—

The Cobblers Wife won last time out but that masks a patchy recent profile, and with our rating 8 lb below her official mark she looks to have plenty to find against these rivals; the distance and going hold no fears at least.

AI verdict

SR 57 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

Deadheat

Age 13 · 10-7

9/P-03

Mr N McParlan 7%

S McParlan 10%

10-7

★☆☆☆☆

—

Winless in his last four starts, with a pulled up and a ninth among recent efforts, Deadheat is hard to fancy from 12th in the ratings; he has run over today's trip and going before, and ten days since his third last time out at least suggests fitness.

AI verdict

SR 62 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

Nobody

Age 5 · 10-5

008-5U

Josh Williamson 12%

Brendan Maurice Walsh 7%

10-5

★☆☆☆☆

—

Winless in his last five starts and ranked last on our figures, Nobody makes little appeal here — an unseating last time out compounds the concern, though he has run over today's going before and 15 days between runs suggests he arrives fresh.

AI verdict

SR 48 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

Baltinglass Hill

Age 9 · 10-1

7PP7-0

Simon Torrens 8%

P J Rothwell 8%

10-1

★☆☆☆☆

—

Winless in his last five starts, with two pull-ups among them, Baltinglass Hill arrives after a 110-day absence and is ranked well below the field on our figures, making him very hard to fancy despite having experience of today's trip and going and carrying 141 lb.

AI verdict

SR 54 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

Annarubyrose

Age 5 · 11-2

9-2457

TBA

Ian Patrick Donoghue 11%

11-2

★☆☆☆☆

—

Winless in her last five starts and ranked 13 of 16 on our figures, Annarubyrose faces a stiff task under 156 lb, though experience on today's going and a second four starts back offer slim crumbs of encouragement.

AI verdict

SR 63 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

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Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Gorthill

Speculative

Gorthill owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (39) and market confidence (49). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

N/A Stephen Carlin TBA

68% Confidence

⚠ Danger Runner

Driveonwill

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

N/A · Ross O'Sullivan

✓ Value Signal

Annarubyrose

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

N/A · Ian Patrick Donoghue

◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

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Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.

Speed rating Low conviction

39 / 100

⚖ Weight 38% ＋14.8 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Speculative

49 / 100

⚖ Weight 22% ＋10.9 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction

41 / 100

⚖ Weight 12% ＋5.0 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Live signal

64 / 100

⚖ Weight 10% ＋6.4 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor High conviction

69 / 100

⚖ Weight 10% ＋6.9 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Low conviction

40 / 100

⚖ Weight 8% ＋3.2 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.

1 2. Gorthill

49.5 N/A

2 1. Driveonwill

46.8 N/A

3 5. Full Noise

46.6 N/A

4 10. Not So Serious

46.5 N/A

5 6. Wing Back

45.4 N/A

YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view

Our Zebo

Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

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The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly

📊

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability

🤖

★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance

🐾

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Our Zebo

Confidence: Speculative

Our Zebo (SR:72) is the highest-rated horse in the field and carries a competitive 11-3, giving him a meaningful SR edge over the next best. Crucially, GoingFit:+ confirms he handles today's good ground — a rare positive signal in a field where most runners show GoingFit:- or unknown. His MarkMv:-20 indicates his mark has dropped 20lb since his last win, making him potentially well-in, and his recent form 2316-7 includes a win and a place. The ★★☆☆☆ AI rating and blinkers (HG:b) suggest connections expect a forward show, with Conor Stone-Walsh an adequate booking. Each-way alternative: Run For The Border. Main danger: The Cobblers Wife — The Cobblers Wife showed a recent win (Form:064-P1) off a mark 9lb higher than that victory, carries a light 10-10, and Danny Mullins (13% strike rate, 314 runners) is a significant jockey upgrade that demands respect in a wide-open heat.

Case against 4 clamped

Form line 2316-7 ends with a 7th on most recent outing — he heads to Downpatrick off the back of a poor run, not a confidence-boosting display.
Trainer Noel C Kelly strike rate is only 7% and jockey Conor Stone-Walsh just 6% — a weak handler/rider combination at a track where margins are tight.
The MarkMv:-20 drop suggests a series of below-par performances that eroded his mark; the handicapper may have already accounted for his best form being behind him.
Gorthill (SR:70) was out just 10 days ago and is fresher; blinkers (HG:b) on Our Zebo hint connections are struggling to rekindle his form rather than managing a straightforward return.

Shortlist Our Zebo, Run For The Border, The Cobblers Wife, My Cullen

Each-way: Run For The Border Danger: The Cobblers Wife

🗺 The Course Race conditions

2m3f100y Distance to cover

Good Expected going

16 Confirmed runners

Downpatrick Track and setting

Monday 31 August Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP Handicap Steeplechase

Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP Handicap Steeplechase

Southwell (AW)

Chepstow

Epsom

Ripon

Downpatrick

Cartmel

Roscommon

Balanced lens

Gorthill

Driveonwill

Annarubyrose

Balanced

How the chamber read the race

See your angle before you make your move

Saturday Rating

AI Stars

Cub Votes

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

🗺 The Course Race conditions